As James Carville said
I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or a.400 baseball hitter. But now I want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.
There is no bigger Red Flag in the world of macroeconomics indicating a crash is underway than when the Bond Market, led of course by the premier instrument of debt in the world US Treasury Bonds, takes a major dive and heads south for the winter. With yields now surpassing 5% and rising, the stock market, real estate, gold and every other form of investment you can imagine is now under siege. This because with that rate of return, you can expect your "safe" investment in USTs to outperform any of these other means of trying to make money from money. Nobody believes at the moment that the FSoA Goobermint will ever default on its debt, so if they can get 5% by lending to that ever deepening money pit, they continue to do so. The almighty Dollar is of course based on the "full faith and credit of the FSoA". Dollars just represent the opposite side of the ledger, it's a note of zero duration you can use to pay for things, and it is backed, each and every one, by a UST bond. Efectively what tht means is thatas the yield on the bond goes up, the value of the dollar on the other side of the ledger goes down.
How much further down does it have to go before all hell breaks loose? No clue there really, but I suspect if/when we hit the next milepost of 6%, like when the DeLorean hits 88 miles an hour, we're going to see some serious shit.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/bond-market-crash-what-are-treasury-yields-stocks-economy-americans-2023-10
Bonds' record-breaking crash is a threat to stock prices and American jobs. Here's everything you need to know about the Treasury-market turmoil.
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