Quote from: K-Dog on Oct 26, 2023, 08:55 PMThe large white area represents the next century.  Eight billion are here and eight billion more are coming.  By the end of the next century most people perish in the red zone.  And the sliver of green is questionable.

A reasonable estimate.  600M left is of course very close to the 500M number recommended by the Georgia Guidestones.  Also very close to the Peak Population in the 17th century when the plagues hit.



Assuming the estimates on when the recoverable energy reserves will run dry for the empty tank scenario are correct, that gives us about 75 years left to kill off about 12B people.   If you divide 12B/75, you get 160M people every year between now and 2100.  For reference here, the number of total dead from WWII over about 6 years was:

Battle Deaths    15,000,000
Battle Wounded    25,000,000
Civilian Deaths 45,000,000

for a total of around 85M.  So, starting today, we need about double the total WW2 deaths every single year from now to 2100.  Except of course it's not going to be spread out nice and even like that.  The more years we keep going BAU, the more would have to die every year after BAU is over.  Also though, once BAU is over, the deaths won't spread out nice and even, at some point they will start happening very fast.

THAT is the 12B person question hanging out in this thread, which is WHEN between now and 2100 will the BIG one occur?  When will we get that first really BIG year of deaths?  Not a minor blip like COVID, but a real WHOPPER year, with say even just half the WWII death toll number? Will that come in the next decade while I still have some chance of being alive to see it?  Or is it still 20 or 30 years away?

Inquiring Doomer minds want to know.

RE