Peak Oil 101

[K-Dog]

Inflation will make the price higher than 70 $ a barrel. 

The addict pays what he/she has to pay.

Oil price models should factor in the price of oil in a feedback look.  I suspect they do not.

But I am too busy creating the Dynamo project to find out.  My so far, private intellectual dark web.  Go to the page and click on the 'book' to see where I have been busy.  The irony is this is the exact kind of problem to use Dynamo for.  Adding the original Manual makes the project useful.  Not by itself, but it gives the background and history.  The point is a short learning curve and the manual helps.

[RE]

Inflation will make the price higher than 70 $ a barrel. 

Eventually perhaps, but in this cycle if inflation was going to drive it above the $80-84 range it's been trading at for the last year, it would have already done so.  In fact globally speaking we're moving into a deflationary cycle already.  China is already battling deflation:

In China, Deflation Tightens Its Grip

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4786075-china-economic-crisis-third-plenum/

https://asiatimes.com/2024/07/china-cuts-key-rate-amid-worst-deflation-since-99/

Today, Oil dropped below the $80 benchmark again, dropping to $77/bl.  This is before the real meat of recession hits here, which looks like around Nov to me when they'll actually cop to it, and things will get seriously worse as the bubble of CRE refi's come due in 2025-26.  So, IMHO, a price target in the $65 range next year has high confidence on my part.  If I was still into  the game, I'd short with that target price.

We are of course addicted, but we're also addicted to debt to pay for it and the creditors are insolvent, so credit is getting tighter.  There will be bankruptcies, biznesses and factries will close, unemployment will rise.  UE people buy less gas and everything else.  Falling demand causes falling prices.Addicts who are broke either steal or go into withdrawal.  It's hard to steal gas, so I suspect withdrawal to be the general outcome.

RE