Yesterday, as I made my way to the No Kings protest in Knoxville, Tennessee, the news hit me like a gut punch. Minnesota Representative Melissa Hortman and her husband had been killed. Senator John Hoffman and his wife were wounded. And the first thought that raced through my mind? I'm not surprised.

This is Donald Trump's America.

The fact that I wasn't completely rattled, that I wasn't gripped by utter disbelief, says everything about the political climate Trump has created: a climate where violence festers, where conspiracy theories are gospel, and where the so-called enemy within is hunted like vermin.

A Cult, Not a Political Party

This isn't about Republicans versus Democrats. Reasonable people on both sides stand against political violence. But what we're facing now is a cult, one that thrives on lies, paranoia, and the glorification of extremism.

Donald Trump has given his followers something to fight for: a war against shadows. To them, we aren't fellow citizens with differing views. We're the radical left lunatics, the enemy from within, the ones who must be rooted out. When you feed people that poison day after day, when you tell them their way of life is under siege by some imaginary force, this is what happens.
The Blood Is on Trump's Hands

Look at the pattern.

On January 6th, Trump sent his followers to the Capitol, called them patriots, and then pardoned the violent criminals among them.

Every manifesto, every act of political violence, traces back to the same rhetoric: Trump's.
They tell us to turn down the temperature while Trump fans the flames.
Even the man who took a shot at Trump was drunk on his Kool-Aid. That's how deep this sickness runs.

A Country on the Edge

I've received more death threats since Trump's election than ever before. I carry a weapon now, something I never did, even playing music in the roughest bars. That's the America we live in.

But here's the truth: We cannot back down.

Governor Tim Walls said it best: Peaceful discourse is the foundation of our democracy. But democracy doesn't stand a chance when one side refuses to engage in good faith, when they'd rather spin conspiracy theories than face facts.
The Fight Ahead

To those who say we should turn down the temperature, I say this: Go tell Donald Trump.
We didn't create this chaos. We didn't call for violence. We didn't make heroes out of criminals. That's all on him.

My heart breaks for Minnesota. My heart breaks for this country. But I refuse to be shocked anymore. Because as long as Trump's cult runs wild, as long as his lies go unchecked, this violence will keep coming.

We are on the right side of history. And we will keep fighting.
But don't blame us for the fire.
Blame the man who lit the match.

QuoteA General Strike would be better.

👍

I watched some of the LA action.  The order was to clear an area.  For no good reason, but to instigate trouble.  People were arrested for refusing to leave areas.  Some were arrested for being nothing more than confused * .

Trump wants trouble, he will make it up or push hard enough to get it.  The state uses armed bodies of men when other means of control break down.  As Trump breaks down, and he is, the violence and alienation of the American state from American society will only grow.




The advancing line of horses showed it was a raw expression of power not meeting resistance and unnecessary.  Symbolic for the rest of the country to see.

LA cops like to play the tough guy.

Quote* Around 4pm, the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) issued a dispersal order, but kettled people in so they could not leave. Then, the sheriffs and cops fired tear gas and pushed the protesters, unprovoked. They trampled an elderly man with their horse and then clobbered him with their batons and fired round after round of less than lethal projectiles at the crowd. The police chased people down, hitting protesters indiscriminately. They beat people bloody.

Breaking with the capitalist parties is a political necessity. Both Democrats and Republicans have attacked worker's living standards. They keep rent prices high and wages low; they are united in deportations and repression of precarious and unemployed youth; and they sicced the cops on the protesters last night. Both parties are the enemies of the working class.

Workers Unite!

Protests are good.  A General Strike would be better.

https://truthout.org/articles/lapd-attacks-no-kings-protesters-in-los-angeles/

LAPD Attacks "No Kings" Protesters in Los Angeles

RE

The U.S. shale boom was a one-time geological lottery win, not a sustainable energy revolution. The idea that we can just "do it all over again" with the Texas ROZ (Residual Oil Zones) or some other unproven play is dangerous fantasy.

The last decade's surge was built on cheap money, prime acreage, and OPEC's price umbrella.  None of which exist today.  Permian producers now need $65-$96/barrel for breakeven, but prices are projected to fall to $59 by 2026.

Investors are done bankrolling growth.  After $300 billion in losses, Wall Street wants dividends, and reckless drilling is a gamble they do not want to take.

Declining rig counts, and a looming supply cliff is in the future and the Texas ROZ will not ride in as the oil cavalry at the last minute.

The Texas ROZ supposedly holds another 100 billion barrels. But let's get real. Residual oil zones (ROZ) form due to various geologic conditions and are located below the oil/water contact of main pay zones.  A ROZ is not shale. It is a depleted conventional reservoir, requiring far more expensive extraction techniques.  CO2 flooding must be used.

The Texas ROZ oil needs $80-$100+/barrel to be viable.  Prices that high are not good times.  Even if the Texas ROZ holds vast reserves, ramp-up will take decades in an environment where the economy can't do better than limp along.

Ten years ago we had fresh shale plays, eager investors, and $100+ oil.  Now we have depleted sweet spots, no easy capital, and volatile prices.  The next 10 years are not going to be years of growth.  They'll be a desperate scramble to run in place.  Then geology is going to win. Shale wells decline 70-90% in three years, and the Permian's best rock is already squeezed out.

Saudi Arabia's spare capacity can crash prices anytime, strangling shale.

The energy transition is a feel good fantasy, and all you have to do is look under the spinning globe on the main page to see the proof that it is a fantasy.  More fossil fuel was burned in 2023 than ever before.  EVs, efficiency, and climate policies are propaganda plays without teeth.  I track CO2 and it rising faster than it ever has.

Cheap oil built modern civilization. When it's gone, everything gets impossibly expensive.  Financial collapse will come before total biosphere or supply collapse. The shale sector is a debt house of cards, and it only needs one idiot to make it fall.  And when it falls it'll take pensions, banks, and jobs, everything, down with it.  And America has plenty of idiots to make it happen.

The U.S. shale miracle was a flash in the pan, not an energy revolution. The next 10 years won't be a repeat of that miracle.  It will be a reckoning with stupidity.  Renewables don't replace fossils.  Renewables actually increase total energy use.

We have no energy transition. We only have energy addition. Our system is increasing fossil fuel use while layering renewables on top.  We have Jevons Paradox in action.  Jevons Paradox can be dealt with.  But it will take a dictatorship of the proletariat to make that happen.  American capitalism has no ability to deal with Jevons Paradox.  None at all.  A system without any ability to regulate itself, and a system in which exploitation is a cornerstone ushers in doom.

Year to year change in CO2 concentration in the air is now at 0.85% per year.  See the green table in the upper right corner on the main page which you can also get to by clicking the globe.

https://chasingthesquirrel.com/

That is half again what it was when I started tracking the annual increase.

Official Moderation Notice

Regarding TDoS's violations of the Doomstead Diner Code of Conduct

Catalogued Violations

    Strawmanning (Severity: High):
    Deliberately conflated supply, my claim with production, the graph, despite knowing the distinction.

    Sarcasm/Personal Attacks (3 counts, 3-day ban each):

        "Posting high again?" → Mocking
        "Can't fuel up the Benz" → Ridicule
        "MIB erasing news" → Suggesting I am paranoid

Action

    9-day ban to commence tomorrow at a time of my choosing. 

For Virgin Eyes, what this is about.

My actual claims (vs. TDoS's distortions):

➡️ By 2030, approximately 50% of current oil supply will be lost to natural decline.

➡️ By 2035, if demand holds steady, gasoline supply failure becomes imminent.

Production is related to supply, but they are not the same thing.  TDoS fully understands the difference but cares to muddy the waters.  TDoS is a Troll who countered my claims with a graph concerning Production not Supply.  Which was the actual content of my claim.

Even on the graph TDoS posted, by 2030 we are in steep decline.  By then we will be in a different economy.

Quotethe means to make it happen might require the same sea change in the economics of resource development that has OBVIOUSLY happened multiple times before.

Multiple times, and so on.  Rinse and repeat. Technology will save us, so claims TDoS.  For now and forever.  I say otherwise.

QuoteSo where did you get gasoline supply failure imminent?

I get that wherever I want to get it because I make my own interpretations.  My analysis considers exports are going to take the place of what Americans will not be able to buy when the economy fails.  I see shortages ahead when supply chains fail.

Ten years goes by in the blink of an eye.  After which no preparations are made.  The end will not resemble a gradual fading away.  Things will go to shit fast.  The Seneca cliff.

As shale output declines and imports face global competition, shortages and supply instability happens. This could happen sooner if black swan events occur, and once there are supply chain problems, they will not be easily resolved. The complexity of the oil industry means that when something goes wrong, it can be difficult to fix, and it's not as simple as just sticking a pipe in the ground as it once was.

Quote from: K-Dog on Jun 14, 2025, 12:43 PMTDoS, this is your link where you posted this graph.

And it is why you are a troll.  You wrote this and I am responding to it.

I'm a troll.....because you THOUGHT I didn't know about AEO results? I do know about AEO results. Quite some time ago. What is the point? I'm a troll...because you read provided information? This is great!!

Quote from: K-Dog

QuoteAmerican LNG exports coming online means there is some coin to be made producing NG in the US....us now being the world's largest producer of both oil and gas. And word's largest exporter of LNG. Profits to feed the capitalism beast!

Your own graph which you used to counter my assertion that:

➡️ By 2030, approximately 50% of current oil supply will be lost to natural decline.

➡️ By 2035, if demand holds steady, gasoline supply failure becomes imminent.

You posted a graph of energy of crude oil anad lease condensate. In quads. That decline is maybe 1 quad out of 29 between a maximum and 2030. So where did you get gasoline supply failure imminent? Did the EIA say that, or did you not read the graph correctly and karnacked a 3.4% drop in energy into gasoline supply failure? Jesus man, you've got more brains than that, are you posting high again or something?

As far as "demand holding steady", maybe it will, maybe it won't. But you didn't show an EIA graph of demand assumptions, they certainly exist. Did you not reference that one because it doesn't say what you did? Did they SAY "gasoline supply failure imminent!" somewhere. Because if they did, I missed that.

Quote from: K-DogJust came back to haunt you.  You published clear evidence for decline, yet you pivot into a make America great posture.  Just let let the horses run free.  Prosperity is here for those who ride.

Once again...good thing I didn't say those things. Instead I just posted that the US might be peaking. Again. And the world already has, and we all know the HORRORS that has caused. You not able to fuel up the Benz, petro chemical production cratering, gas rationing just like global peak oil in 1979....all these horrors! Obviously the MIB have been erasing all internet news of these events.

Now that you have written new code to keep the MIB out, you can post some real news showing all the rationing and people with cars that won't move because they can't get fuel and whatever? It would be a big scoop for the website!

Quote from: K-DogAfter that the discount at the gas pump you get for buying groceries is going away.

Please. Keep up. I bought a BRAND NEW EV for an easy 405 LESS than your environmentally friendly do-gooder heat pump....why in the world would I give a shit about gas pumps and discounts for buying groceries? Again...I wrote an entire post about that cheap EV ON YOUR BLOG HERE. You missed it? Or just decided to assign this strawman to me forgetting that not everyone is an ICE powered polluter of the world (you know, folks who DO use gas..or DIESEL...pumps).


Peak has always been, and always will be a given. Hubbert's math in his seminal paper in 1956 was correct. Good thing  that Hubbert also wrote (when he declared US peak oil by 1950 back in the late 30's) that there might be multiple peaks along the way!

The man was a genius. Boy was he right! 2025....yet another US peak! Now the question will be can there be more? The answer is obviously dependent on other factors, but I am currently pessimistic. But the means to make it happen might require the same sea change in the economics of resource development that has OBVIOUSLY happened multile times before. You won't find any of thsi knowledge among the peakers, and they tend to be really embarassed nowadays after their hollering and screaming and getting it all wrong the last couple of times.

I'm sure the Israeli decision to bomb the Iranians had nothing to do with getting the price of oil out of the basement. 

RE

Quote from: K-Dog on Jun 14, 2025, 12:23 PM

QuoteThe Russians have demonstrated they can't get out of their own way and stomp flat some pesky little neighbor country

Not when it is a well funded proxy war willing to send all the young men of Ukraine to die for a chance exploit that land.  This is true.

Proxy war isn't WWIII

As far as who is exploiting who in the "pipsqueak country doing a fine job demonstrating that the bully on the block is an incompetent war fighter", would seem proxy wise that the west is profitting immensely from watching a new style develop, and how easy a time NATO would have pushing Russian troops back to Moscow if it weren't for the nukes involved.

Which could lead to WWIII. BUt aren't anywhere close yet. And don't look to be getting closer. Obviously I am ignoring the children's squabble in the Middle East.

Quote from: K-DogTrump says he will continue funding Ukraine's war effort — but he wants something rare in return.

Trump is a liar, convicted felon and admitted serial sexual predator by both the court, and his own, admission.

Why in the WORLD would you assign credibility to an orange halfwit?

Quote from: K-DogTrump says he wants access to Ukraine's bonanza of rare earth and critical minerals in exchange for the billions of dollars in military aid Washington has been supplying to Kyiv.

Trump says he is slapping tariffs on all the countries. Lasts a day or two. Trump says he didn't inflate the values of his properties to commit fraud. Trump says he is a genius...and only weighs 220#. Trump says he doesn't cheat at golf.

Yes....sounds like we should pay attention to his honesty and everything he says.

Quote from: K-DogAnd you have not been keeping up with the news.  Russia prevails.

Not yet. But even if, after more than the 3 years of war where they have been doing a piss poor job, they suddenly get some traction while killing off a couple more hundred thousand young men, they have taught NATO everything they need to know. They don't have to worry about any Russian land war from the gang that can't shoot straight. Or manuveur. Can't achieve air superiority. Doesn't have much in the way of tanks left to fight with. Fights stupid. Fights with theory of "maybe if we shove our male 18-22 entire population of the country into a meatgrinder....the meatgrinder will break!

Yes...Russia prevails. The same Russians that kill Americans supporting them because they didn't know he was one of their cheerleaders. Oops. So smart they kill their own propaganists. Genius! Russia prevails!

TDoS, this is your link where you posted this graph.


And it is why you are a troll.  You wrote this and I am responding to it.

QuoteAmerican LNG exports coming online means there is some coin to be made producing NG in the US....us now being the world's largest producer of both oil and gas. And word's largest exporter of LNG. Profits to feed the capitalism beast!

Your own graph which you used to counter my assertion that:

➡️ By 2030, approximately 50% of current oil supply will be lost to natural decline.

➡️ By 2035, if demand holds steady, gasoline supply failure becomes imminent.

Just came back to haunt you.  You published clear evidence for decline, yet you pivot into a make America great posture.  Just let let the horses run free.  Prosperity is here for those who ride.  Capitalism is an unstoppable force.  The end result of centuries of progress, and I am a fool for thinking otherwise.  That is your position.  You can find a graph to punch me down with if it suits you.  Because yes, the delusion can be maintained past the midterm elections that we all can have a tiger in the tank.  The miracle of horizontal drilling gives us that much time.

After that the discount at the gas pump you get for buying groceries is going away.  But not tomorrow, and the peak on the graph was your point.  Your point was not tomorrow.  Anne of the Thousand Days we have.

* Because if you are trying to be sarcastic, it isn't working.

QuoteThe Russians have demonstrated they can't get out of their own way and stomp flat some pesky little neighbor country

Not when it is a well funded proxy war willing to send all the young men of Ukraine to die for a chance exploit that land.  This is true.

Trump says he will continue funding Ukraine's war effort — but he wants something rare in return.  Trump says he wants access to Ukraine's bonanza of rare earth and critical minerals in exchange for the billions of dollars in military aid Washington has been supplying to Kyiv.

And you have not been keeping up with the news.  Russia prevails.