Collapse Cafe 2024

[TDoS]

DO NOT CONFUSE THE ISSUE It is resource depletion. Talkers do nothing but talk, appear in podcasts, attend conferences, and write books.  Often 'talkers' are members of some 'group' or institute.

So, AI Fantasy Girl (got any pix?  ) what do you know about resource depletion? You apeared a bit light in mentioning much beyond the claim itself. Are you worried about coal resources? Uranium? Copper? Clean water? What are HAL9000's thoughts on the topic?

[RE]

The trial will be held in the minds of people around the world. The masses that have been going along with western propaganda will change their minds and see the West as the Imperialist cabal that it IS. The sentence is rejection, on all levels...especially trade.

Well, at least so far the people of the global south aren't rejecting western propaganda, they're migrating here just as fast as they can.  Even if it were true there was some kind of mass trial of public opinion ongoing in the minds of the oppressed peoples of the world, that wouldn't matter to the oppressors, it never has.  They don't have the power to hold accountable anyone running the show.  Everyone is dependent on the systems that produce and deliver the food and the banks that control global trade.  You can't opt out of the system short of hiding in a cave in Afghanistan.  Even if the BRICS succeed in creating an alternative currency to the dollar, it's still the same system with a different brand name.  So this sort of trial won't fix anything that's broken.  You might as well say God will hold them accountable in the afterlife and they'll all burn in hell.  This may be true, but life here on earth will still suck.

RE

[RE]

[K-Dog]

You gave the 20,000 foot view.  That is why this choice of music.

About the timeline.  If you have been waiting for the volcano to erupt in Iceland you soon find the earth runs on its own schedule.  Even Icelanders can't adjust to the long game of the earth.  So it is with collapse.  The Earth runs on its own timeline.

Peak oil happened exactly as predicted.  The peak had to do with conventional oil and tight oil was not accounted for.  The peak is bumpy because of substitutions, which also will soon peak and the borrowed time will be gone.  After that it is oil shale burning which is so dirty that there will be palm trees and crocodiles in the Swamps of St. Peterberg Russia before the last rock is cooked for the oil inside.

I don't agree the Limits to Growth predictions are off schedule.  Consider we are boiling frogs and don't trust your 'feelings'.  Look at the graph.



News of how bad things are in other places is not making our news.  What about the price of wheat?

Since the video the price of wheat has gone down.  The price of rice is way up.  Overall there is significant global food price inflation.

[RE]

The peak had to do with conventional oil and tight oil was not accounted for.

That is exactly what I said.

RE

[RE]

I'm joined by  my co-host Monsta from the UK for this edition of the Collapse Cafe.  Unfortunately due to a snowstorm here in Alaska we had a bad connection and had to cut it short, but hopefully can pick it up next week with better technical conditions.

RE

[K-Dog]

Good Monsta has been able to stay warm and is doing OK.  The message I get from this chat is people are struggling to get by over there.

[monsta666]

Good Monsta has been able to stay warm and is doing OK.  The message I get from this chat is people are struggling to get by over there.

I am not sure I would use that term. I would say it closer to falling behind i.e. every year we are poorer in real terms. Costs of living goes up but incomes do not increase enough to compensate. Moreover, with the issues of pensions the younger generation will have to work longer and harder.

To put this into perspective the department of wealth in pensions in the UK states my retirement will occur on 21 January 2055. You really think our pension systems will hold up by then when peak oil has already occurred 20 years in the past? There are quite a few people in my generation who grasp the concept that unlimited economic growth is absurd but since there are no actionable measures in place we are tied to the system. So, to many the answer is to simply party like it is 1999 and deal with the fallout when it comes. We have been left to fend for ourselves and no one cares about our plight. The old farts like Biden cannot relate on any level to what is going on, on the ground. Hence why mainstream parties are taking a battering and the more extreme ones are getting a look in.

[RE]

To put this into perspective the department of wealth in pensions in the UK states my retirement will occur on 21 January 2055.

I'll be 98 years old! 

If I make it and SS is still working,  I will have collected for 43 years, after working for 40 years.

RE

[K-Dog]

You really think our pension systems will hold up by then when peak oil has already occurred 20 years in the past? There are quite a few people in my generation who grasp the concept that unlimited economic growth is absurd but since there are no actionable measures in place we are tied to the system.

The only thing we can count on is change.

It bothers me when people attack the pension system.  If there is a society that functions at any level in twenty years, it will be possible to print money to give to old people.  That is if a society wants to.  There may be less to give, and the books may not balance, but books do not have to balance in modern monetary policy.  They don't now, and power has everyone thinking they do.  You are a banker so you can tell us more. 

When enough people want the system changed an event will come along to spark that change.  If everyone thinks in defeatest terms the spark can set nothing off.

You really think our pension systems will hold up by then when peak oil has already occurred 20 years in the past?

It depends on what kind of change is made.  It is possible to put a priority on food, shelter and empathy.  But with the century of the self that the western world has had, people forgot.

Consider evil Putin's Russia.  The Soviet Union fell and pensions should therefore be zero , but:

In 2022, the average "old-age" pension in Russia is 18,500 rubles (approx. $244).

The highest pensions are paid to those employed in dangerous professions, to arts and culture figures who have been awarded the title of 'People's Artist', to members of parliament, to judges and cosmonauts. For example, a judge's pension varies from 35,000 to 200,000 rubles (approx. $460 - $2,640), a State Duma deputy's pension is over 46,000 rubles (approx. $600) and a cosmonaut's is, on average, 446,000 rubles (approx. $5,900).

The system may not be 'fair' but the system exists.  And it does not have to at all.  But apparently Russian empathy exists.

[K-Dog]

You really think our pension systems will hold up by then when peak oil has already occurred 20 years in the past?

our pension system (as it is) will absolutely fail.

Make sure the right kind of change happens.  Complaining about how things are now, or could be, does not make change.  Individually we can't do much, together we can.  Thinking there is no hope prevents people coming together.

Hope is over-trashed.  We all know in the Diner what HOPIUM is.  We know smoking that pipe makes people passive.  I am not talking about that.  I agree people smoke hopium.  It is pandemic.

But hopium is not hope.  Hope is understanding the future has an infinity of possibilities and that the only certainty is that there will be echoes of the past in whatever new form the future takes.  This continuity of a rhyme gives human action value.  Knowing our actions have value is the essence of hope.

Hope is working to make one of the better possible outcomes happen.  Hopium avoids the future and DENIES hope.  Hopium is the opposite of hope.  Hopium is sitting on your ass doing nothing.  Hope is actual work.  Hopium believes that the future will just happen.  Hope works to make the future happen.

If you (all of you) think hope is just a feeling, you are from a very passive culture.  Feelings never made thing happen and never will.  Human action makes things happen.  Hope without action is delusion.

[monsta666]

@K-Dog: What people in my generation need is actionable hope i.e. what can we do today to ensure a future that is better for us. A lot of us are kind of resigned to the fact the conventional idea of retirement won't apply to us but what can we do to reduce the hurt?

No one out there in the mainstream is offering a solution except "work harder" which only enriches the current elite. People feel it in their bones that something is not quite right but cannot articulate this feeling like you can. What people want is a roadmap on what to do otherwise they are tied to working within the matrix whether they like it or not.

This feeling is made all the worse as the social contract made was if you worked/studied hard you would have a stable job that would enable you to raise a family and live a comfortable life. This hasn't been case and is seen as a failure hence the rise of less mainstream parties or leaders such as Trump or Le Pen... People are realising the current status quo is failing but don't know the answers so clamour for anyone that is not conventional.

[K-Dog]

I am working but I earned my social security so I don't have to work full time or have a job with beaucoup responsibility.  An argument could be made that I don't have to work at all.  I am not so arrogant to claim that.  With the job I have I can eat good food.  Steak dinners, and I do not worry about the extra cost.  If I only had social security I would have to watch every penny.  I have savings but I might need that later.  I do not know how long I will live.  Arbitrary spending would ruin me in a few years.  Am I retired?

If I did not work, what would I do.  People who 'retire' get old fast.  Then they die.  As long as I have the health to work, not working makes no sense to me.  It keeps me young, as long as it is not overdone.

Even if I had a few million.  In that case I would rent a space and make wood furniture and things to give away for free.  I'd make sure I put in at least four hours a day doing it.  It would be my choice in that case for sure.

Retirement means not having to pay for health insurance.  You get it for free.  By that standard not many Americans ever get to retire.  RE can weigh in on that one.  I have to pay for supplemental insurance every month.

What exactly do we mean by retirement?  Not having to work?  By that standard all sorts of people of all ages are already retired.  We have to define our terms.

[TDoS]

What exactly do we mean by retirement?  Not having to work?

Doing as we wish? Be it work, or not? I think I will work until my mental acuity becomes an issue and I am no longer capable of doing mental gymnastics with the young and brighter generations. After that I'll probably give up and do as much traveling as I have capabilities for it. Social security would be nice, I've got a huge leg up when it comes to health care and who pays it, regardless of Medicaid and whatnot. As has been expected since The Great Dieoff became a bust, personal doom is far more likely than the real deal finally getting around to thinning the herd as it were.

By that standard all sorts of people of all ages are already retired.  We have to define our terms.

I'm not retired yet. I am completely eligible for everything under the sun in about 3 years. I'll go that much longer and then decide I suppose. As much adventure travel as the wife allows perhaps? 4 wheels and 2, North America specific. No urge to venture international.

[RE]

I am working but I earned my social security so I don't have to work full time or have a job with beaucoup responsibility.  An argument could be made that I don't have to work at all.  I am not so arrogant to claim that.  With the job I have I can eat good food.  Steak dinners, and I do not worry about the extra cost.  If I only had social security I would have to watch every penny.  I have savings but I might need that later.  I do not know how long I will live.  Arbitrary spending would ruin me in a few years.  Am I retired?

If I did not work, what would I do.  People who 'retire' get old fast.  Then they die.  As long as I have the health to work, not working makes no sense to me.  It keeps me young, as long as it is not overdone.

Even if I had a few million.  In that case I would rent a space and make wood furniture and things to give away for free.  I'd make sure I put in at least four hours a day doing it.  It would be my choice in that case for sure.

Retirement means not having to pay for health insurance.  You get it for free.  By that standard not many Americans ever get to retire.  RE can weigh in on that one.  I have to pay for supplemental insurance every month.

What exactly do we mean by retirement?  Not having to work?  By that standard all sorts of people of all ages are already retired.  We have to define our terms.

I got to retire early at 55 due to disability.  If it wasn't for the health issues, retirement would have been by far the greatest time of my life.  Even with being crippled, it's better than working.  I would have no trouble finding shit to do with myself, and I can live on just SS no problemo.  I learned how to live cheap.  I'd probably have driven my van and picked up a trailerable sailboat to cruise around the fjords up here in summer if I wasn't crippled, then drive it down trailering behind the van to costa rica in winter and sail the coast there.  As it is, I write, make some vids, play chess and watch crappy TV.

I love not having any responsibility or having to answer to a boss or have a test to prepare for or paper to write.  Do what I want, when I want.  No worries about money.  Just that amount of freedom is great, I don't need to be rich.

Far as medical bills go, there are 2 solutions, either you are filthy rich or just poor enough to qualify for state Medicaid to go as your secondary insurance behind Medicare.  I fit Door #2.  Nothing costs me a dime.  Ive had $100sK in operations, more in hospital stays, still more in the nursing gulags and in home health aids.  Free drugs all around, including my narc prescription.  My guess is over the decade I have been disabled/retired, I have pulled well over $1M in medical bennies, not including my SS & Pension checks.  I'm just under the income allowed for subsidized housing as well, so I have had 2 very nice apartments, a 1 BR and a 2BR both at 30% or less of my monthly income.  I have zero debt and both my cars were paid off and bought for cash.  I no longer have a car, but I have an EV scooter to go shopping or to restaurants, which is all I ever go out to do.  If/When I get a new apt, I intend to upgrade to one of those Chinese mini EVs that sell for around $15K.  It will take a little while to save up for it once I have control over my retirement money again, about a year if I watch my pennies.  Don't really need it, but there is one I think is really cool. 

One thing I definitely would NOT do if I was healthy is to work as K-Dog has chosen to do.  I would have downsized out of his McMansion, which is worth a fortune.  Split the proceeds with his wife and bought a top of the line RV and parked it somewhere cheap running on solar panels and growing bushels of high quality Ganja and wacky Mushrooms.  But that is me, and K-Dog is not me.  He's a foot taller and I think breathing the thinner air up there addled his brain. lol.

RE