Economic Errata

[RE]

And peak oil was all about a given point in time, a single event, day and year, and folks went for that hook, line and sinker. Thanksgiving Day, 2005. You can talk to me about dementia because it runs in the family, what's your excuse missing one this obvious? Selective memory? Indigestion? Irritated because the next day the blessed consequences hadn't appeared yet?

Because I never was much of a Peak Oil aficionado, despite beginning my investigations into the dynamics of collapse on the peakoil.com website.  I was always more drawn to collapse by the economic manifestations, not because of fossil fuels or climate change or species extinctions.  My original ID on peakoil was Rogue Economist, I only switched to Reverse Engineer after being booted off for being too argumentative with the moderators and not buying thee party line they were selling completely.  You are as much of an ideologue as those folks in the opposite direction, obsessed with proving that Peak Oil is a flawed concept.  Fortunately for me, you are not the moderator here, I am. I'm a little more lenient than those guys, because I find your repetitious attempts to discredit anything peakoil connected to be hilariously counterproductive.  So I periodically bait you into writing another one of your diatribes, rehashing the same tired objections over, and over, and over, and over again.  I'm a cripple in a Gulag on the Last Great Frontier, what better do I have to do with my time?

RE

[TDoS]

And peak oil was all about a given point in time, a single event, day and year, and folks went for that hook, line and sinker. Thanksgiving Day, 2005. You can talk to me about dementia because it runs in the family, what's your excuse missing one this obvious? Selective memory? Indigestion? Irritated because the next day the blessed consequences hadn't appeared yet?

Because I never was much of a Peak Oil aficionado, despite beginning my investigations into the dynamics of collapse on the peakoil.com website.  I was always more drawn to collapse by the economic manifestations, not because of fossil fuels or climate change or species extinctions.

I completely believe you. Most collapse folks tend to have the wideband interest, not the specific. Unfortunately, that is correlated with some folks using mechanisms they aren't familiar with to achieve their prognostications of doom and whatnot.

My original ID on peakoil was Rogue Economist, I only switched to Reverse Engineer after being booted off for being too argumentative with the moderators and not buying thee party line they were selling completely.  You are as much of an ideologue as those folks in the opposite direction, obsessed with proving that Peak Oil is a flawed concept.

Well, peakoil.com always had a beef with folks being argumentative back when peak was as much a faith based concept as anything. They banned me shortly after I began participating as well...mostly for pointing out, as you say, flaws in the theory as it was known at the time. However, we are talking about the 2005-2008 timeframe. By 2010 or so the USGS built a new system covering part of the geoscience puzzle, used it for new estimates, and presented the domestic results beginning at the 2012 AAPG Long Beach California national convention. Part of the global update of the 2000 World Assessment work I believe. Published the method in 2015. Also in 2012 if memory serves, the geologist who led the  USGS 2000 World Resources project but was in industry in 2012 spoke the truth of a new concept in resource estimates during an AAPG meeting in Tulsa of that year. His concept included a more dynamic interpretation of resources in the geoscience world rather than static ones that previously infected how peak oils were calculated. In neither of these cases were economics involved, just basic geoscience ideas. In 2017, 2 years after the USGS had made their new method public, EIA analysts at the world energy modeling convention in Maryland demonstated the real world results of the use of a system based on these new ideas, and threw in economics to boot.

Peak oil was a flawed idea, way back when. From several perspectives. It isn't any longer. The only flaw remaining, or final improvement if you'd prefer, is who inside the two organizations who have built these systems will incorporate stochastic principles and publish everything they know.

K-Dog has indicated previously he doesn't seem to think there is much value in research. I disagree. And just demonstrated why.

Fortunately for me, you are not the moderator here, I am. I'm a little more lenient than those guys, because I find your repetitious attempts to discredit anything peakoil connected to be hilariously counterproductive.

Power of God. I remember. 

So I periodically bait you into writing another one of your diatribes, rehashing the same tired objections over, and over, and over, and over again.  I'm a cripple in a Gulag on the Last Great Frontier, what better do I have to do with my time?
RE

Well, your baiting seems reasonable, for exactly the reasons you've described. But I don't just post objections, refuting recycled talking points from the 1990-2010 peak oil period claims isn't even entertainment anymore. The research and work have been done. What I posted is information that you, and old school peak oilers, don't even know came into existence across the last 14 years. Peak oil was solved right under your noses and you missed it. 

Lets discuss something more interesting that you do have experience with. I'm headed out to see the eclipse ina couple of weeks, and I know you and K-Dog did this a couple years and websites back. Any suggestions on equipment or things to watch out for, other than don't drive an unreliable car like whatever K-Dog was using that needed towed home?
 
 

[RE]

Well, your baiting seems reasonable, for exactly the reasons you've described. But I don't just post objections, refuting recycled talking points from the 1990-2010 peak oil period claims isn't even entertainment anymore. The research and work have been done. What I posted is information that you, and old school peak oilers, don't even know came into existence across the last 14 years. Peak oil was solved right under your noses and you missed it.

Since I mainly follow economics, I never looked at Peak Oil as a problem in need of solution.  The problem in need of solution for me is in the value of money and its ability to function to adequately distribute resources to the global population of homo saps.  You're the one who is obsessed with Peak Oil here, not me.  You rant on and on about it, and consider the problem solved, which I don't believe is true but even if it was, the problem of the piss poor condition of the monetary system the world runs on hasn't been solved, and is in fact in far worse condition than it was in 2008-10.  Unless you believe that the problem of population rising and resources depleting was solved when the problem of Peak Oil was solved right under my nose, Houston, we still have a problem as far as I am concerned.  I generally don't even bother responding when you start referencing studies which you feel corroborate your thesis that the Peak Oil problem was solved.  It's exactly the same debating technique Dr. McStinksion uses when he gives one of his lectures to establish the scientific bona fides behind his belief that the question of Near Term Human Extinction has been resolved, and science proves we all went extinct back in 2016, just we haven't noticed yet.  The research you cite is only part of a much bigger picture and proves nothing about the viability of industrial civilization as we move forward here.  Nevertheless, you regale us with this information over and over, and over and over again as though these earth shattering revelations prove all discussion of collapse are wrong, because they're always wrong, etc, etc, etc.  It's ridiculous, and if you weren't so fixated on it you might be able to see how ridiculous it makes you appear, but you can't see it.  That is not my problem, it is your problem.
 

Lets discuss something more interesting that you do have experience with. I'm headed out to see the eclipse in a couple of weeks, and I know you and K-Dog did this a couple years and websites back. Any suggestions on equipment or things to watch out for, other than don't drive an unreliable car like whatever K-Dog was using that needed towed home?

The car was I believe his Mercedes.  I think he  replaced that one with a newer model, though not brand new itself when he bought it.

Main things to have are the practically opaque sunglasses needed to look directly at the eclipse and a good still camera and video camera to record it.  You'll need filters that fit over the lenses of those cameras, but don't spend the ridiculous amount of money for custom ones for your Nikon or Hasselblad unless you're Elon Musk, you can buy the filter polymer in 8x10 sheets for a few dollars and use cardboard, glue & duct tape to make ones that fit your cameras, or cell phone if you're a cheapskate satisfied with phone quality photography.  Otherwise, make sure you have the right clothing and rain gear and portable shelter with you, and arrive early at your viewing location tograb a good spot.  Camping out a day or two before is wise.  Bring plenty of booze, drugs and smokables as well as snacks and BBQ grill.

If you are as lucky as we were and get a perfectly clear day with no clouds to impede the view, it's an unbelievable experience if you are in the Path of Totality.  Unless you are on that narrow swath, it's no big deal.  Where and when will you go see one?

RE

[TDoS]

Since I mainly follow economics, I never looked at Peak Oil as a problem in need of solution.

Okay. But you most certainly had it in your handbag of doom symptoms/causes/precursors.

You're the one who is obsessed with Peak Oil here, not me.

Research isn't obsession. It just means I am far more informed on this particular topic than the generalists.

You rant on and on about it, and consider the problem solved, which I don't believe is true but even if it was, the problem of the piss poor condition of the monetary system the world runs on hasn't been solved, and is in fact in far worse condition than it was in 2008-10.

The solution to peak oil (in the predictive modeling sense) doesn't require your belief, any more than 2+2=4 does. And you have been using economics in your own way as an explanatory part of your doom trigger going back decades now....Rogue Economist....I didn't need to be told your username earlier.    

Unless you believe that the problem of population rising and resources depleting was solved when the problem of Peak Oil was solved right under my nose, Houston, we still have a problem as far as I am concerned.

The other than peak oil problems generated by humanity are legion. Of course we have a problem. We consume.

I generally don't even bother responding when you start referencing studies which you feel corroborate your thesis that the Peak Oil problem was solved.

I didn't espouse a thesis, I related historical information leading to a very specific statement as to how many folks figured it out. 

The research you cite is only part of a much bigger picture and proves nothing about the viability of industrial civilization as we move forward here.

A) I cited no research. I provided a timeline of an event leading to a specific statement as to how many folks have figured it out, and important milestones along the way. If I cited research I would have used footnotes.
B) I've never argued the viability of industrial civilization one way or the other.

But this does raise the implication that your "experience" and understanding of the viability of industrial civilization based on a hobbyists understanding IS valid. Generally speaking, I will admit that self learning can be highly effective. But when your application of that level of understanding allows you to conclude that Toyota would be bankrupted during the 2008-2009 recession at peakoil.com, and the same of Tesla years ago on reddit, I might recommend that you put a little more physical science rigor into "solving" what ails your analysis at the micro scale of market watching prior to applying it at the macro level.

Nevertheless, you regale us with this information over and over, and over and over again as though these earth shattering revelations prove all discussion of collapse are wrong, because they're always wrong, etc, etc, etc.

You've never seen the timeline before that I just provided. Therefore you've never seen it over and over. It wasn't earth shattering, it was research, spanning more than a decade, arriving at a result. And I didn't say anything about how it relates to collapse.

If you want to just make shit up, you don't need to pretend I'm involved at all.

Lets discuss something more interesting that you do have experience with. I'm headed out to see the eclipse in a couple of weeks, and I know you and K-Dog did this a couple years and websites back. Any suggestions on equipment or things to watch out for, other than don't drive an unreliable car like whatever K-Dog was using that needed towed home?

The car was I believe his Mercedes.  I think he  replaced that one with a newer model, though not brand new itself when he bought it.

Main things to have are the practically opaque sunglasses needed to look directly at the eclipse and a good still camera and video camera to record it.  You'll need filters that fit over the lenses of those cameras, but don't spend the ridiculous amount of money for custom ones for your Nikon or Hasselblad unless you're Elon Musk, you can buy the filter polymer in 8x10 sheets for a few dollars and use cardboard, glue & duct tape to make ones that fit your cameras, or cell phone if you're a cheapskate satisfied with phone quality photography.  Otherwise, make sure you have the right clothing and rain gear and portable shelter with you, and arrive early at your viewing location tograb a good spot.  Camping out a day or two before is wise.  Bring plenty of booze, drugs and smokables as well as snacks and BBQ grill.

If you are as lucky as we were and get a perfectly clear day with no clouds to impede the view, it's an unbelievable experience if you are in the Path of Totality.  Unless you are on that narrow swath, it's no big deal.  Where and when will you go see one?

RE

Thank you for the information. I hadn't planned on taking pictures, so I hadn't considered much in the way of my camera equipment. I'll probably modify that plan now. My plan is to spend the night before within 2 hours or so of the path of totality. I've found a location in nowheresville along a small secondary road which just happens to have plenty of pulloffs, intersections with big dirt parking areas. I'm going to go find one and park. If everyone else in the texas/arkansas intersection is doing the same, I will wing it in terms of where I pull over to watch. Paris TX through Mena AK is the general location.

[K-Dog]

Any suggestions on equipment or things to watch out for, other than don't drive an unreliable car like whatever K-Dog was using that needed towed home?

I still have the car and it is actually reliable.  Cruising around Washington State in it is fine.  There are thousands of Mercedes here.  Montana is a different story.  If something goes wrong with it in the middle of nowhere you are screwed.  At the time there was only one Mercedes dealership in Montana and it turned out to be the end of a strip mall with one car on display and something about as big as a Jiffy Lube to work on customer cars.  It would have taken weeks to get it fixed in Montana before I could get it home.

This one is a 2008 mine is a 2007.  Mrs. Dog has a 2008.  They are both black.

We arrive at a place together driving separately.  People think we actually get along.  The truth is we have been trying to get rid of each other for more than forty years.  Neither one of us can do anything right.

There was an issue with the transmission.  It has been fine since.

[RE]

But when your application of that level of understanding allows you to conclude that Toyota would be bankrupted during the 2008-2009 recession at peakoil.com, and the same of Tesla years ago on reddit

I never concluded Toyota would go bankrupt during the 2008-9 financial crisis, and I've never put a timeline on Tesla's inevitable bankruptcy.  Like GM, Chrysler, AMC, Nash, Hudson, PanAm, TWA and the Railroads, bankruptcy of any of these finance dependent corporations comes to them all eventually, often multiple times.

Since you claim you don't cite any research, your hobbyist POV is no more valid than my hobbyist POV, it's just more narrowly focused on Peak Oil than my more whollistic POV.  The rigor which I consider satisfactory is what I consider enough to convince myself, and any of my readers who are not ideologically driven to argue against it and fixated enough to keep banging away over and over, and over and over the same tired arguments that nobody else here buys but yourself.  I may be preaching to the choir, but you are just preaching to yourself here, for what reason other than to convince yourself I can't fathom, since you're not convincing anyone else, and our readership circulation is so tiny it wouldn't make a difference if you did.    You waste your time, my time and everyone else's time regurgitating your POV.  I have plenty of time to waste given I have little else to do, I guess you also have nothing better to do with your time.  So round and round we go, ad infinitum.  So it goes.

RE

[TDoS]

Any suggestions on equipment or things to watch out for, other than don't drive an unreliable car like whatever K-Dog was using that needed towed home?

I still have the car and it is actually reliable.  Cruising around Washington State in it is fine.  There are thousands of Mercedes here.  Montana is a different story.  If something goes wrong with it in the middle of nowhere you are screwed.

That problem I am familiar with. In earlier day for roaming North America (literally, Key West to Prudhoe Bay if the urge strikes) I've relied on toyota pickups and ford pickups. In later roamings I shifted to toyota and ford sedans, if only for the fuel savings. Both brands have decent parts and dealership avaailability, at least near populated areas. Montana is I-95 between NYC and DC compared to heading to Goose Bay, or Prudhoe Bay, some would say US 50 through Nevada might qualify. It doesn't, after you've done the other two. Oh, carry 2 spares and extra parts and whatnot for the easy to fix stuff. After that it is a Premium AAA plan for the 200 mile tow once a year.

This one is a 2008 mine is a 2007.  Mrs. Dog has a 2008.  They are both black.

We arrive at a place together driving separately.  People think we actually get along.  The truth is we have been trying to get rid of each other for more than forty years.  Neither one of us can do anything right.

There was an issue with the transmission.  It has been fine since.

One of my toyota pickups, what should have been an indestructible manual transmission started popping out of 1st gear in Ohio. By the time I got it to Louisiana it was popping out of 5th. But it got me that 1000 miles while towing a trailer with motorcycles on it. Can't really complain, it got the job done regardless.

[TDoS]

I never concluded Toyota would go bankrupt during the 2008-9 financial crisis, and I've never put a timeline on Tesla's inevitable bankruptcy.

What's it worth to you for me NOT to prove what I said? Tell you what, check out your reddit posting history back 6 or 7 years ago, before you started catching flack and getting some posts scrubbed and forming globalcollapse. And feel free to revise your prior statement and I won't yuck it up over what you've forgotten. We are all older, we forget. Even more interesting, search about then for your claim of Tesla not being able to quintiple their sales. That search word on titles can't kick back that many results. Just don't compare those annual sales you denigrated to current ones.

As far as Toyota, I'll make you the same deal. Just go search in peakoil.com on Wednesday, Dec 10, 2008 for your posts. 7:46:47 was the time. Not Rogue Economist. Reverse Engineer.

How about we just continue conversing nicely and I skip another demonstration on the value of research?

Since you claim you don't cite any research....

You missed the part where I didn't provide footnotes, ergo, of course I didn't provide research. I provided a timeline. A story. Some history. Not all of it was published research..some was presented at conferences, AAPG, SPE, the big EIA ones in Washington when they were still doing them. 

....your hobbyist POV is no more valid than my hobbyist POV, it's just more narrowly focused on Peak Oil than my more whollistic POV. 

At what point when you were passing around published works you claimed were mine, did you get the impression I was a hobbyist?

So am I an expert on some related narrow professional topic you told the mods back then, or not?

You waste your time, my time and everyone else's time regurgitating your POV.  I have plenty of time to waste given I have little else to do, I guess you also have nothing better to do with your time.  So round and round we go, ad infinitum.  So it goes.
RE

How about we change the dynamic then? First, we establish that mentioning a problem solved that wasn't known by anyone on this website and to most of the peak oil world at large isn't a POV. It was just a fact not commonly known.

And I might have mentioned this in other websites along the way, but not made it clear at any of yours as to the WHY I tend to have hung around this topic for so long. Specifically, why I went longer than the first six months after Thanksgiving Day, 2005. The amount of time it took to understand the core of the problem, certainly had no idea where to start, and began...you know...researching the topic.

[RE]

I'm not going to bother with researching my old posting, I'm suitably honored though that you have made it your hobby in your declining years to make such a comprehensive study of my writing that you can dredge up posting I made all the way back to peakoil.com.    I have my own historian!  lol.  Clearly, you have a more comprehensive knowledge of what I wrote than I do.  I've written so many posts and blogs over the past 16 years anything is possible in there, just about everything I write is done in a single draft and after I post it, unless a debate ensues where I have to double check what I wrote, I never read it again after I hit the send button.  Do you have this stuff catalogued?

Now, although I have suspected for some time that you were my most ardent and loyal reader and troll MKing,  it was only after this most recent exchange where you mentioned Prudhoe bay, my history with Reddit and Peak Oil mods that I felt certain of it enough to mention it to K-Dog to decide what if anything we should do about it.  Taking the screen ID of Tdos, who was a blogger and Doomsteader I interviewed a few times on the Diner initially made me think it was him writing here now, after having an Ashvin Pandurangi like Religious Revelation and becoming a Born-Again Denier.  I'm glad to see that is not the case, and you were just hiding behind another new screen ID to get back to your old job of disrupting the forum by filling the pages with an endless stream of contrarian posting using the same old theme and arguments as always.

Now that you have decided to come out of the closet, the dynamic has most certainly changed.  I'll return to the same policies I had the last time I got tired of responding to your never ending stream of repetitive arguments, which is for the moment if you don't clog up the pages with too many daily posts on your own agenda I'll just ignore them or delete them if I find them too insulting or annoying, and I'll give you progressively longer suspensions of your posting privileges if you violate the rules, like your Appeal to Authority claims of your geochemistry papers and status as a big shot in the oil industry.  You are already alluding to that, so I think I'll start by giving you a 1 week suspension.  Also, when you come back, any complaining about censorship is also a violation of the rules, and commenting only on peak oil and energy topics that fit your agenda is also a violation.  This isn't a Peak Oil board, we discuss a wide variety of collapse related topics.  You need to contribute to more than just your narrowly focused agenda, and you need to come up with something novel, which I have yet to read.

When you do return, you should also change your ID back to MKing, using Tdos' name as a cover for your identity is an insult to his memory.

RE

[RE]

Breaks my heart. 

https://www.npr.org/2024/04/11/1243982287/fbi-agents-housing-costs

Many FBI agents are struggling to make ends meet. Housing costs are to blame

RE

[RE]

Reminds me of the 1970s, when NYC was supposedly on the edge of bankruptcy for about the whole decade.  Then during the 2008 Financial Crisis it was Harrisburg and a few other cities supposedly going to default on their bonds.  Yet somehow, the TBTF banks and Da Goobermint always manage to restructure the debt in some way so BAU goes on and you don't hear about it again for another decade or two.  Same shit happens with Sovereign debt and the IMF.  Remember Greece and Argentina?  Everybody's in a big tizzy, the world's on fire, the sky will fall but then magically after months of secret negotiations in Basel, Switzerland or on Jekyll Island or on Jamie Dimon's yacht in International Waters the Smartest Guys in the Room get it all worked out.  $100B in debt seems to just disappear.  Some shit gets privatized, public employees take a salary cut, some pensions disappear, loans are rolled over for a longer term, lawyers and accountants are paid a shit load of money, a few dozen high priced hookers get a windfall and the Muni or 3rd World debtor country is once again given the green light to issue new 30 year bonds underwritten by Goldman or JP Morgan Chase and the problem disappears for another generation or so.  The problems always seem to arise when there is some kind of deeper problem with the financial system happening, and these debtors are the Canary in the Coal Mine.  What's the deeper problem this time?

It's the persistently high inflation Da Fed has not been able to tame with higher interest rates, and despite promises of rate cuts, mortgages are back over 7% and USTs selling at over 5%.  Banksters are starved of the Free Money they love to gamble with and the stock prices for companies with absurd P/E ratios start to look increasingly suspicious and ugly.  This is a strong leading indicator that we are on the verge of another melt down, which last year I said looked likely for the 2nd or 3rd quarter of this year.  We're in the beginning of quarter 2 now, so we'll get to see if I called it right this time or I get a low grade in my ECONostradamus 101 class this semester. 3rd quarter ends Oct 1st, so it's crunch time now.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/25/many-large-us-cities-are-in-deep-financial-trouble-heres-why.html

Many large U.S. cities are in deep financial trouble. Here's why

RE

[RE]

Well, if I turn out to be wrong, at least I won't be alone.  However, if that's the case, I will have been wrong FIRST!  lol.

You know what they say about the market...it can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.  It's always fun though trying to predict market crashes as a hobby.  However, don't risk any real money on it, timelines get changed for all sorts of reasons.  Eventually reality always wins, but sometimes the wait for reality to arrive takes longer than expected.

https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-dietrich-bubble-crash-recession-dot-com-housing-2024-4

S&P 500 is at risk of crashing 44% — and selling early could pay off, says elite forecaster

RE