Housing is so unaffordable that banks are losing money for each mortgage they finance for the first time ever
RE
We are going to have to get a new furnace and I was conversing with a couple of estimators. Home prices came up. I said I don't know where people who can pay money for the houses in my neighborhood come from. Houses are worth over a million here. Can you believe it?
One of the dudes said it was Amazon and tech workers. I added that the Chinese like the neighborhood. Then I added but there are only so many tech workers and Chinese ex-pats though this is their preferred place. Not enough to define a market. People pumping slurpies at 7-11s and such at minimum wage have to outnumber people who can plop a million down on a cash offer by a mile.
I think it is time for the nonsense to end. The guy I was talking to did not get my point about the numbers of rich people not being enough to support a market of a million for an average home.
I looked into things. Median net worth for Americans was only about $120K in 2019 and home equity accounts for a good chunk of that. Meaning Americans don't really have a median worth of $120 K.
Average net worth is very high. The 1% makes me look like a pauper compared to the national average but in reality, ignoring inflated house values, I'm close to the median worth for my age.
I think the housing market should have collapsed long ago. Collapsed when it became unaffordable for average Americans.
Title: Economic Errata
Post by: FarmGirl on Apr 10, 2023, 09:03 PM
Housing prices have been propped up since 2008 by Hedge Funds and other non-bank shadow capital looking for investments to park basically free money they could access from da Fed at artificially low interest rates. You hadda be a big player to access this funny money, it was hardly a free market with open access to all. Anybody who thinks this was/is a free market is a few cans short of a six pack. Said funny money is drying up as da Fed tries to get control over the inflation problem, thus the housing prices will start to fall, thus rendering insolvent investors who went heavy into the RE market. Look for bailouts to follow, another sign of a tightly controlled market. Think AIG on steroids.
RE
Title: First Republic Bank Collapse
Post by: RE on May 02, 2023, 01:23 AM
Yes. Jamie Dimon is spitting out Hopium & Lies as usual.
A little perspective: Collectively, the three big banks that have collapsed in 2023 had more inflation-adjusted assets than all 25 banks that collapsed in 2008. Unfortunately, the banking collapse of 2023 is far from over. More banks are currently teetering on the brink of disaster.
The Banking Collapse Of 2023 Is Now Officially Bigger Than The Banking Collapse Of 2008 Was http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/the-banking-collapse-of-2023-is-now-officially-bigger-than-the-banking-collapse-of-2008-was/
Title: Economic Errata
Post by: K-Dog on May 02, 2023, 08:26 AM
QuoteIs the U.S. witnessing a banking crisis?
The question caused me to Jump on Zero Hedge. The wind is blowing in bad news. Chartists are in a kerfuffle. I browsed five articles, and there are two themes. Banks are in trouble, and if you need a job invest in a squeegee and some 'Windex' (the cheap imitation).
Find a busy intersection. Feed some birds. Wash windows. It is the only kind of job out there now.
'Labor Market In Freefall As Job Openings Slide, Quits Tumble To 2 Year Low' is one of the articles over there. Zero Hedge (https://www.zerohedge.com/).
Title: Economic Errata
Post by: FarmGirl on May 02, 2023, 10:57 AM
I remember being surprised during 2008 primarily by the stock market drop. I remember some folks talking about housing values drop, of course peak oil 2008 was all the rage at the time and peak oiliness interest might have been at its own peak. Someone once said that these kind of financial shakeups show up every 5-10 years for a reason, the reason being financial "innovation" is how he put it. As opposed to recognizing that some new form of thievery and game theory with other people's money came along, and then awaiting the next bailout when it goes bad.
Would seem prudent to stay out of the markets during this times I guess. And not to quit one's job.
Title: Economic Errata
Post by: K-Dog on May 02, 2023, 12:45 PM
Quotepeak oil 2008 was all the rage
Only in our extended coffee klatch has it ever been the rage.
Title: Economic Errata
Post by: FarmGirl on May 03, 2023, 09:25 AM
Only in our extended coffee klatch has it ever been the rage.
Oh, that isn't true. There are still UK dedicated peak oil sites up and running, there were plenty of other forums up and running pre-2005, the ROE alt.forums, peakoil.com is still trucking along, although it appears to be more economically oriented, with random conspiracy stuff thrown in to keep it entertaining. Reddit even came up with a peakoil forum 5 years or so back. POB didn't even start until like 2015, and TOD was doing fine until it imploded under the weight of, you know, disappointment. ASPO began near the turn of the century, and took nearly 15 years to tuck tail and run away. Plus all the cool books on the topic back then, it made the front page of USA Today above the fold in like 2005! I just watched the video on how Cuba survived Peak oil from 2006, the nostalgia is strong in that one. The Diner started when? 2006-07-08?
Title: Economic Errata
Post by: RE on May 04, 2023, 01:52 AM
I started writing on the econ topics on the peakoil.com website in 2007. Eventually I joined Jim Quinn writing on TBP in 09, and started a ReverseEngineering Forum on Yahoo. We launched the Diner in February of 2012.
RE
Title: Economic Errata
Post by: RE on May 04, 2023, 01:55 AM
Eh. Not much new there. Contagion is certainly a catchy word in place of "bankers doing what bankers do in order to make big bonuses knowing they'll ultimately get bailed out by GovCo".
There was an article on the old site talking about commercial real estate risks probably more than a year ago now, it seemed to have some of this pegged, but the banks literally betting the bank on the cost of money remaining low just seems so...blaise. Certainly could cause another 2008 wipeout though. For some folks it might be another "once in a generation" buying opportunity. Last time it was residential real estate and a market rebound, this time it might just be the market rebound. I wonder if Eddie would consider getting into the commercial real estate market if things crashed there hard enough? He seemed to do well getting into the residential/rental side of things the last time.
Title: Is a 2008-style credit crisis imminent?
Post by: RE on May 10, 2023, 09:47 PM
Yes, though it's likely to be an order of magnitude worse.
Here's to hoping JP Morgan goes belly up in this cycle. 🤞🏽 It would be nice to see Jamie Dimon take it in the shorts at least once. Of course, he'll float down gently with a Golden Parachute, but it's nice in a symbolic way.
True. I expect those with blood pressure (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-100323192456-23211820.gif) issues will be at increased risk.
To whom it may 😕 concern:
🧐👍 At-Home Versus 😒 In-Clinic Blood Pressure Measurement (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/advances-in-health-care/12836765039-heart-related-129488/msg1047/#msg1047)
Title: Economic Errata
Post by: K-Dog on May 15, 2023, 02:16 PM
Quote from: AGelbert on May 15, 2023, 01:45 PMTrue. I expect those with blood pressure (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-100323192456-23211820.gif) issues will be at increased risk.
The universe never stops coming up with new ways to make my head explode.
Title: Economic Errata
Post by: AGelbert on May 15, 2023, 02:41 PM
Quote from: AGelbert on May 15, 2023, 01:45 PMTrue. I expect those with blood pressure (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-100323192456-23211820.gif) issues will be at increased risk.
The universe never stops coming up with new ways to make my head explode.
True. I expect those with blood pressure (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-100323192456-23211820.gif) issues will be at increased risk.
To whom it may 😕 concern:
🧐👍 At-Home Versus 😒 In-Clinic Blood Pressure Measurement (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/advances-in-health-care/12836765039-heart-related-129488/msg1047/#msg1047)
What is "white coat hypertension"?
Title: Economic Errata
Post by: RE on May 15, 2023, 09:18 PM
It's when your BP rises whenever somebody wearing a white lab coat comes over to take your BP. Many people have this reaction and you get diagnosed as having chronic hypertension when you really don't.
RE
Title: Second Wave Of Banking Crisis Incoming, Crash Could Be Worse Than 2008 GFC
Post by: RE on Jul 10, 2023, 03:27 AM
The really annoying thing about banking insolvency these days is the alphabet soup of bailout agencies that keep shifting around and restructuring the debt to stave off bankruptcies. The debt is still there, the bank gets more and more insolvent because the new money comes very expensive, but it delays the inevitable collapse. So even though the piss poor condition of the banking system has been obvious for months going back to even before the collapse of SVB and Republic and every financial guru from Dr. Doom to Jeremy Grantham and Jim Cramer keeps hooting about an oncoming train wreck, it takes so fucking long to play out it makes you want to tear your hair out by the roots if you are a follower of this kind of nonsense. Just get it over with already! ::)
Second Wave Of Banking Crisis Incoming, Crash Could Be Worse Than 2008 Global Financial Crisis, Says Expert
RE
Title: The Coming Bank Crisis No One Is Talking About
Post by: RE on Jul 13, 2023, 12:31 AM
There's certainly plenty of talk going round about the oncoming train wreck of the banking system, commercial RE is just one more piece of the puzzle. Also not sure how much "work from home" is to blame, the big tech companies don't like it. So called productivity increases aren't there and managerial level folks have a harder time cracking the whip as "boss".l Mostly I think it's just plain old downsizing as these companies shrink or go outta biz. Whatever thee cause, it's bound to deflate the market, not good news for the banks. Takes a long time to play out though, so I'm sure they have a magic act to fix it.
Title: Credit Implosion
Post by: RE on Jul 17, 2023, 03:06 AM
A nice concise explanation of the ongoing banking crisis and the reason for the downward spiral that becomes self reinforcing and about impossible to stop. The key is in this one sentence...
The economy operates on credit expansion which is why it's very rare to see bank credit contract.
Another way of saying the same thing is just substitute the word "Debt" for "Credit", because for every credit extended, somebody else has a debit on their balance sheet. The economy, all the money we use is DEBT. Somebody somewhere has to extend credit and somebody else somewhere has to take on debt in order to have any money at all flowing around in the economy. Once the banks stop handing out the loans, the economy grinds to a halt. Down goes the Titanic.
Title: Economic Errata
Post by: K-Dog on Aug 04, 2023, 11:25 PM
When banks create money they do not create energy. They do not create copper or trees. The money is leant out and must be paid back. Interest compounds. New debt must be issued to pay for old debt, and the money supply always increases.
Printing brings money into existence as does numbers transferred to a bank account balance. Once created, money is loaned out to be spent on real things, to service debt the social super organism grows. Real things must be built and so they are. The debt demands it and ever more energy and materials must be used.
Energy and materials. Stuff that in a world of 8,000,000,000 becomes hard to get.
Too hard to get. The social super organism can't eat. Economic failures, defaults and unemployment result. Supply chain failures. Out of business signs and empty office buildings. There is no profit to feed old debt.
Across the globe debt is now 350 to 400 percent GDP. What would this be like on an individual level?
You earn 100k a year and you owe the bank 350K. At the end of the year your credit card balance is bigger than it was last year. This is a pattern for you.
You are in danger of being laid off, and that raise you got does not cover the increased cost of everything.
Title: Economic Errata
Post by: K-Dog on Aug 09, 2023, 01:37 PM
The economic divide widens.
The number of Americans making hardship withdrawals from their 401(k) accounts increased by 36% in the second quarter of 2023 compared to the previous year, according to Bank of America data.
This increase in hardship withdrawals reflects growing financial distress among Americans due to factors such as high inflation and rising household debt.
Despite the rise in withdrawals, the average 401(k) balance in the U.S. increased by 9.6% since the end of 2022, indicating some positive growth in retirement savings.
Since 2019, household debt balances have increased by nearly $3 trillion, according to New York Federal Reserve data through the first quarter of 2023.
On Tuesday, the New York Fed reported that US households' credit card debt surpassed the $1 trillion mark for the first time ever. The $45 billion increase in credit card debt helped to drive overall household debt levels to $17.06 trillion at the end of the second quarter.
How much is this. Waldo is in the lower left.
17 of these: (https://www.labnol.org/images/2008/trillion.gif).
But enough mind boggling. More people are drawing down what they have but deposits increase.
This means rich people have more money. Again.
Title: The collapse in Treasury bonds now ranks among the worst market crashes in histo
Post by: RE on Oct 07, 2023, 06:17 AM
It appears as though the financial house of cards is entering an accelerating phase of collapse, as the core Bond market product of US Treasury bills yield moves over the 5% mark for the 1st time in decades. As you should know, this means the price of these bills is falling, because the yield curve moves inversely to the price curve. It's getting more expensive to print new money and for Da Goobermint to borrow from the real source of power, the international banking cartel composed of banks like JP Morgan Chase, Citibank< Lloyds of London, the Bank of Rothschild, etc. All this against the backdrop of soaring inflation and a zombie real estate market. Is this finally the Big One, a 30 meter high Tsunami beginning to roll in from an earthquake centered under Davos in Switzerland? Time will tell.
The collapse in Treasury bonds now ranks among the worst market crashes in history
RE
Title: Americans Are Overdue With Their Car Payments At Highest Rate In Nearly 30 Years
Post by: RE on Oct 22, 2023, 05:32 PM
If you follow the econ doom newa, you know that US Goobermint borrowing has gone Hockey stick, with something like $10T added in the last year essentially doubling the total debt. This has resulted in the big banks which serve as dealers having to buy the debt themselves when they can't sell it to some other sucker. This in turn has caused the UST yields to rise, now past 5%. If it costs Da Goobermint 5% to borrow money, how much does it cost J6P to borrow money for his car? A lot more, of course. Banks make their money on the spread between those borrowing costs.
Interest rates for used cars are 13.5% on average for those with fair credit but can rocket up to around 21% for those with the worst credit, according to Bankrate.
15-20% is what you get with unsecured loans like Credit Cards. A car loan or home mortgage is securitized so should come cheaper since the bank can repo the car or foreclose on the mortgage if you miss a payment.
Not surprisingly, as the rates go up, more people go delinquent on the loan because they are usually adjustable rate and your payment, once $200/mo goes to $250 or $300. Does this stop dumbass J6P from buying carz? No, they keep buying at higher rates, leading to more delinquencies. Eventually your subprime loans pop and it's time to bailout the banks. Where does that money come from? MOAR Goobermint borrowing. So now, at long last Fitch, Moodies et al no longer give USTs AAA rating, its downgraded to AAA-. It should be rated as Junk Bonds, except Da Fed can keep printing as long as they keep printing more USTs also and shoveling wheelbarrows of them at the Dealers to sell. Round and round she goes, where she stops NOBODY seems to know. Should have stopped in 2008 of course, but the Smartest Guys in the Room pulled a rabbit out of their Jockstraps and 15 years later it's still going round. Can the Magicians of Money keep it going again this time? We'll know soon methinks.
Americans Are Overdue With Their Car Payments At Highest Rate In Nearly 30 Years
RE
Title: Economic Errata
Post by: K-Dog on Oct 22, 2023, 11:16 PM
QuoteRising car prices have in part been caused by a pandemic-induced computer chip shortage, and some chip shortages could continue into 2024
So what are the other parts of the rise?
Proletarian undercover work as revealed that the average person only earns about $25 an hour. The average price for a new car is over $47,000.
I'm not going to bother with saying how things were in the past or pull out the flat income graph shown against rising productivity that spans decades of recent American history.
Suffice it to say reality is catching up with math.
Here there and everywhere.
Title: Laos is spiraling toward a debt crisis as China looms large
Post by: RE on Nov 09, 2023, 03:52 AM
Looks like the Chinese learned the lesson of how to turn small countries in its sphere of influence into perpetual debt slaves just like the IMF has done for the last century in South America, Africa and the Middle East. Somewhere along the way here the CCP changed from Chinese Communist Party" to Chinese Capitalist Party" ::)
Laos is spiraling toward a debt crisis as China looms large
RE
Title: NYC ambulance workers sound sirens over $15 congestion toll: ‘It’s a slap in the fac
Post by: RE on Dec 25, 2023, 01:47 AM
This article is just chock full of unfathomable economics.
First off, I can't figure out how they can get ANYBODY to start as an EMT in NYC driving in from NJ at $40K/yr. That's $20/hr. Even before a $15 Congestion Fee, how do they afford to drive into Manhattan from NJ? Minimum round trip mileage is about 50/day, maybe you could squeak by on $5 gas. However, the article talks about some of the union members living 100 miles away! That's 200 miles R/T commute! The Toll on the tunnel is $12-15 going in, nothing leaving. There is no free parking in midtown or on Wall Street. In the prime neighborhoods, the average fee for daily parking in a garage is $50. You're talking 3-4 hours of working just to pay for this, and you haven't even factored in the cost of the car, insurance or routine maintenance.
Obviously also, you can't live in Manhattan and work at this salary level. Average rent is $3600 for a 1 bedroom. Even out in Brooklyn and Queens it would be hard to find an apt below $2000/mo. Subway fare is $3 each way. So WTF do any of these workers live without more than half of their already low wages going to housing and commutation?
According to Google, you need an income of $75-100K to live in NY. Even that I think would be hard to pull off, once you figure in taxes, utilities, communications, insurance etc.
Now on the other end, the $15 Congestion Fee is supposed to raise $1B out of about $15B to finance MTA projects. This is a drop in that bucket. The money could easily be raised with a tiny tax on Wall Street banks that have their offices in these neighborhoods. The real reason isn't to raise money, it's to further discourage driving into the city. Not a bad goal, but making it still more unaffordable without another way to get the workers to the jobs just means people will quit. You'll do better taking a job at min wage near where you live.
Obviously, these workers should be paid more, but for some reason EMTs have never been considered worth as much as Garbagemen, who get paid on a par with Cops and Firemen in NYC.
I can't figure out how NYC keeps running at all. The economics there are insane.
NYC ambulance workers sound sirens over $15 congestion toll: 'It's a slap in the face'
RE
Title: World Economic Forum at Davos goes Full Doomer
Post by: RE on Jan 15, 2024, 01:52 AM
The movers & shakers from Davos have seen the light.
Conversation over canapes at the after session cocktail parties will be comparing bunker amenities and self defense weapons. Freeze dried Truffles available in the food vendor booths.
Conversation over canapes at the after session cocktail parties will be comparing bunker amenities and self defense weapons. Freeze dried Truffles available in the food vendor booths.
The people paid to spot risks see high chance of 'global catastrophe' within 10 years
RE
Full doomer, but from their own point of view. In reality the folks at Davos are not even close to being 'doomer'. As a Marxist I have to give this report a thumbs down. The author, Hanna Ziady writes from an capitalist point of view and generates her own MIS-INFORMATION.
Doom is coming, but genuine bad information, like a green new deal. Not faux mis-information will be the cause of doom. Mis-information can only start a fire. By itself it can't do much. AI mis-information may be tinder for a fire, but to burn a fire needs fuel. The existence of Davos itself provides sufficient fuel.
People at Davos need continual economic growth so their money piles get higher at twice the rate of actual growth. So Davos as usual, with crocodile tears will define doom in terms of their portfolio bottom line. Doom for Davos will not be 5.6 million Americans starving to death in 2053. Doom for Davos will mean difficulty finding energy supplies to fuel their rape of the planet and maintain their useless eater status. This is the writing on the wall Davos sees.
The problem with Hanna is she imagines the information we already have is true and correct. Fear of 'dis-information' is a natural result of a threat to her frozen in stone 'truth'. A Marxist point of view considers the world to be in flux, constant motion, everything changing and the economic system we have must reflect current conditions. Reactionaries * to the contrary, imagine the system we have is the best possible. It is, only outright slavery is more exploitive. Oligarchies rule by bank account. The money trick puts a layer of abstraction on slavery and gives it more power.
Years ago, (actually most of my life) I decided to imagine a times that all the 21st century ideas modernity is so proud of, actually were as ignorant of reality as we know an average European peasant from the 1500s was. I did this from a personal point of view, to test the validity of my own DOGma. I am only now sour enough to apply the comparison to everyone else. I am aware this little trick of mine, through the years has made my DOGma far superior to the average. This gives me the confidence and self-esteem to put the filter on other people.
Let's be real. Hanna Ziady posits that disinformation will become a threat. All people who want censorship agree with her. Mis-information must be fought, and all wanna-be censors are standing in line ready to do it. Then any information that threatens the supremacy and cultural hegemony of the Davos status-quo will be quashed. Davos will paint shit white.
My 15th century trick turned me into a Marxist, and I did not even know what one really was at the time. Likely the gentile reader does not know what one really is. It is not your fault. You live in America.
* reactionaries fight system change. They react against it.
Title: - Economic Errata
Post by: RE on Jan 16, 2024, 05:59 AM
Of course, to paraphrase F. Scott Fitzgerald, Doom is different for the rich, because they have more money. But even though it's different, they still see Global Catastrophe in the next 10 years. That's a Full Doomer type prediction.
RE
Title: Stocks look 'highly vulnerable' and the economy is likely to enter a yearlong recess
Post by: RE on Feb 08, 2024, 06:29 AM
Consistent with the ongoing crash in the Commercial Real Estate market, the truth about the over valuation in the stock market is also getting talked about in the MSM, as opposed to the bullshit that has been promulgated that the FSoA economy is healthy and we would avoid a recession due to the higher interest rates needed to stem inflation. Pretty much every warning light for a crash is flashing RED, from the yield curve inversion in bonds to the PMI, skyrocketing debt on the Federal level and consumer credit card debt now topping $1T and of course the unaffordable housing situation all just SCREAMS crash ahead!
Also pretty silly IMHO is the notion that a recession will be short lived, and we will hop back to growth in a year or even less. The debt problem is systemic and very deep, and there is nothing you can point to that might provide an engine for growth.
Internationally, the Chinese economy is in a deep hole with their own RE disaster unfolding and youth unemployment above 20%. Shipping and trade continues to be threatened by the war in the Middle East and the Indian rice export ban is going to wreak havoc with food prices in many countries where it's a main staple. This means increasing political instability throughout Asia.
So overall we are likely to see a major economic slowdown which will reduce demand for oil, and unless the wars escalate further to increase military demand for oil, consumer prices for fuell here in the FSoA probably won't change too much, at least to begin with. However, if demand drops enough and they are forced to drop oil prices, that will mean the more expensive oil plays will be shut in.
It looks like the next couple of years will be a critical turning point in the whole energy-economy ball game. Get ready for a real roller coaster ride, cuz it appears that TSHTF day is approaching.
Title: Corporate defaults are happening at fastest pace since financial crisis, according t
Post by: RE on Mar 14, 2024, 07:24 PM
Next to margin calls, short sellers and bank runs, nothing warms the cockles of my heart more than corporate bankruptcy filings. ;D What are cockles anyhow? ??? The pressure is building for a market crash on Black Tuesday, which coincidentally falls on October 29th this year, just as it did in 1929. It would be the perfect set up for the POTUS election on the following Tuesday, November 5th. I can't think of a more perfect scenario for the arrival of SHTF Day, a day of infamy awaited by all Dedicated Doomsted Diners since we began the original Diner in February of 2012. It's been a long wait, and perhaps we will at last be rewarded for our patience, my soul free to exit my current meat package and cash in my ticket to the Great Beyond, still with plenty of juicy fat marbled meat on the bones to earn a Prime Long Pig USDA designation from the Cannibals at the FSoA Dept of Agriculture.
Of course, actually calling this historic moment is a crapshoot, and we'll have to continue to wait a while longer, which is OK too. I'm still enjoying following the daily progress of collapse, which is really a process and not something you can really pin to a single day, or even year, although sometimes with enough historical perspective later it can be narrowed down a bit. Still, after more than 1500 years, pinning the Collapse of the Roman Empire to 476 AD with the fall of Rome in the Western half of the Empire doesn't really identify when the collapse began, or when it ended. In some ways it's still with us in the deepest records of property ownership held in bank vaults in Switzerland and the catacombs of the Vatican by the Holy Roman Catholic Church.
For Industrial Civilization, collapse has been underway for a long time and in the FSoA you could point to a few moments as significant mileposts, the financial crisis of 2007-8, the collapse of the WTC on 911, the victory of consumerism and greed over the rebellion against capitalism and the back to the land movement of the hippies, best signified by the end of the 60s at Woodstock in the summer of '69, to name a few significant and symbolic events. So even if Black Tuesday is a major milestone this year, it's unlikely all the lights will go dark the next day or the dollar's exchange value will fall to zero either. Whatever happens, the trajectory is clear andthe pace of collapse is accelerating. The end of the age of oil is on the horizon, and the sun is setting on capitalism, globalism and the control of the many by a tiny fraction of greedy billionaires pulling the strings of politicians and legislators and judges they own is coming to an end. What follows will not be pretty, as nation states dissolve into anarchy, food becomes scarce and the vast majority of the current population die of starvation.
However, in the immortal words of Uncle Joe Stalin, you can't make an omelet without breaking a few eggs. :)
Corporate defaults are happening at fastest pace since financial crisis, according to S&P
Title: - Economic Errata
Post by: TDoS on Mar 14, 2024, 08:45 PM
The scenario of the End Times has been around longer than the internet has been around to propagate it. Which isn't even close to how long Apocalypticism (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apocalypticism) has been around. Bumped into it on reddit, and the definition is really good, within the context of how consuming the topic is. And how it has survived so long.
Apocalypticism is the religious belief that the end of the world is imminent, even within one's own lifetime.
"Religious belief" being the hiccup of course, with this definition from unless we accept the standard Merriam Webster Online definition of religion:
a cause, principle, or system of beliefs held to with ardor and faith
and presto...we have all arrived where others have since Jesus was around.
Us old farts here have the experience to have seen this all play out across our lifetimes. RE's list, of the faith and ardor that before leaving this mortal coil, FINALLY the results will be revealed to all the non-believers.
But for those of us with age and experience, and paying attention to the history we've lived through, we can't ignore how often these results have been announced, seemed to be occurring, discussed at length.
The old Diner, peakoil.com, ROE, dieoff.org and oilcrisis.net going back into the last century. And those are ALL after the stagflation of the late 70's, the Cold War, the Great Dieoff, the world running out of oil proclaimed by Jimmy Carter no less...before the end of the 1980's.
We've been here before. We've been here multiple times, those of us who protested the destruction of the natural world when the Trans-Alaskan pipeline was built, or the development of Prudhoe Bay. We're cheered on Jimmy when he announced the world was running out of oil by the end of the 1980's, believed in Ehrlich when he spoke of the pollution and dying via starvation of large swaths of the world population in 1970.
And all we got were the go-go 80's and a lingering after taste...soon satiated when Colin Campbell himself kicked off a catastrophe of a global peak oil. In 1990. And then within a few short years, internet, the scientific community and their opinion on the topic ran smack into modern disinformation and dissemination of ideas and the merry round picked up some speed once again.
34 years since Colin restarted a kernel of an older idea, and the internet took it, and others, and that first decade of the 21st century sure looked like the time had come. Again.
Everyone here is old now. I asked before, does anyone have kids? Kids might at least mitigate the natural tendency to buy into every world ending event that looks like it is approaching, lending a little optimism to our ideas if only for their sakes...the apocalypse always just over the horizon...always just off in the future as we continue to wait....just wanting a glimpse so all the fascination won't have been for naught.
Rather than being happy to finally see it, and having failed in attempting to change the world back in the mid-70's and through stagflation, I found it better to just live life. It worked out pretty well. I'll continue doing it until my personal doom arrives, and it won't much matter as to why and how. But it will have been a good ride regardless.
Title: - Economic Errata
Post by: K-Dog on Mar 14, 2024, 10:24 PM
Religious apocalypticism is something reserved for lower life forms. I am of a scientific bent, and the math says we are going down. Belief has nothing to do with it. Facts have everything to do with it.
QuoteAll we got were the go-go 80's and a lingering after taste...
I found it better to just live life too. Nothing is changed by the efforts of one. But, if Julian Assange is flown in, I stand fully ready to support spray can art. Among other things. I wanted more than high fructose corn syrup. I want more than idiots deciding what is good for me.
Title: - Economic Errata
Post by: RE on Mar 15, 2024, 04:15 AM
Quote from: TDoS on Mar 14, 2024, 08:45 PMBut for those of us with age and experience, and paying attention to the history we've lived through, we can't ignore how often these results have been announced, seemed to be occurring, discussed at length.
Ah! I knew that one would pull you out from lurkerville! ;D Baiting you is so EZ! Along with the corporate defaults, another thing I can count on as I observe collapse moving along its inexorable path, is that you will be sure to drop in and refresh us with your firm belief that since the defining SHTF Day moment has perpetually failed to arrive for all recorded history, since no collapse was really the Apocalypse because, hey, we're all still here, right? LOL. Every Kollapsnik who ever predicted collapse since Homo Sap first became self aware has been wrong, so it's a fair bet I'll be long dead before it comes to pass, as it of course must, because the Sun will run out of hydrogen eventually of course.
Now perhaps I am not as old or have as much experience as you, but then again I'm less likely to be suffering from the early symptoms of Alzheimer's either. If you bothered to read the post for comprehension rather than the slick little misdirection of prior moments in the downward slide that just mark waypoints, you would grasp that what I am saying is that you can't really ever pin a collapse to a single event, day or even year. A couple of fun ones I didn't mention were Dec 31, 1999 & 12/21/2012, my favorite Mayan prediction because Roland "Master of Disaster" Emmerich made one of his specialty City Destroying Cataclysm CGI spectacles for that one. Collapse is a process, not a day or an event, and generally takes a few generations to play out. Then in retrospect (if there are any historians around and any records survived) you may be able to point to events that were significant in the downfall, like the sacking of Rome by barbarians.
For me, it really is irrelevant when I buy my ticket to the great beyond, because I've already seen enough to know where it's going. I don't need to see 4B people die in a year, because I know that in the absence of FFs the earth won't feed 8B meat packages. the Die Off is as inevitable as the Sun running ut of hydrogen to fuse.
I shall count on your return many more times to remind everyone that predictions of the apocalypse never come true. It's a feature of Alzheimers, to become fixated on something like that, even when it's not actually being predicted. You might want to check on that. I think there are some meds now that will slow the progress.
RE
Title: - Economic Errata
Post by: K-Dog on Mar 15, 2024, 08:57 AM
Quoteyou will be sure to drop in and refresh us with your firm belief that since the defining SHTF Day moment has perpetually failed to arrive for all recorded history, since no collapse was really the Apocalypse because, hey, we're all still here, right? LOL. Every Kollapsnik who ever predicted collapse since Homo Sap first became self aware has been wrong, so it's a fair bet I'll be long dead before it comes to pass, as it of course must, because the Sun will run out of hydrogen eventually of course.
Always a perpetual argument about what human nature is. One thing for sure. Humans can't appreciate a collapse timeline. Check the news about the Iceland volcano activity every day, and after about three weeks of doing that you are going to believe it is not going to erupt. But it will.
Iceland volcanoes erupted three times last year, and there is seismic activity to show eruptions will happen again. Your 'human nature would need calibration.
Personally I miss the herds of buffalo I will never see.
Collapse has been happening for a long time.
I will never dine on Passenger Pigeon in my private Pullman rail car rattling the rails to Chicago from New York.
I have an ancestor who had his own Pullman. The private jet of its day in the 1880's. At the time he was worth a few million. He did it by owning lots of chicken farms. Consumption of Passenger Pigeon is a reasonable assumption.
He put my grandmother through an Ivy League college. She was his granddaughter. At the time he was 107 years old.
So fuck Robert F. Kennedy Jr. It should be my turn.
Collapse has been happening for a very long time.
Title: - Economic Errata
Post by: TDoS on Mar 15, 2024, 03:30 PM
Quote from: RE on Mar 15, 2024, 04:15 AMIf you bothered to read the post for comprehension rather than the slick little misdirection of prior moments in the downward slide that just mark waypoints, you would grasp that what I am saying is that you can't really ever pin a collapse to a single event, day or even year.
Yeah, and you must have missed me detailing or referencing not only the claims going back to Jesus but those spanning the last half a century and piling up of multiple consequences to get to the expected outcome. 20 years ago. An explicit acknowledgement for those reading that even after many of them have been piled on top of each other, we still don't get the result some seem to look forward to.
I'm happy that personal doom for any of us, same as regular folk, is far more likely than anything happening that results in a resounding "We told you so!" from those who have been watching events unfold since Jesus was born.
And peak oil was all about a given point in time, a single event, day and year, and folks went for that hook, line and sinker. Thanksgiving Day, 2005. You can talk to me about dementia because it runs in the family, what's your excuse missing one this obvious? Selective memory? Indigestion? Irritated because the next day the blessed consequences hadn't appeared yet?
Title: - Economic Errata
Post by: RE on Mar 15, 2024, 04:15 PM
Quote from: TDoS on Mar 15, 2024, 03:30 PMAnd peak oil was all about a given point in time, a single event, day and year, and folks went for that hook, line and sinker. Thanksgiving Day, 2005. You can talk to me about dementia because it runs in the family, what's your excuse missing one this obvious? Selective memory? Indigestion? Irritated because the next day the blessed consequences hadn't appeared yet?
Because I never was much of a Peak Oil aficionado, despite beginning my investigations into the dynamics of collapse on the peakoil.com website. I was always more drawn to collapse by the economic manifestations, not because of fossil fuels or climate change or species extinctions. My original ID on peakoil was Rogue Economist, I only switched to Reverse Engineer after being booted off for being too argumentative with the moderators and not buying thee party line they were selling completely. You are as much of an ideologue as those folks in the opposite direction, obsessed with proving that Peak Oil is a flawed concept. Fortunately for me, you are not the moderator here, I am. I'm a little more lenient than those guys, because I find your repetitious attempts to discredit anything peakoil connected to be hilariously counterproductive. So I periodically bait you into writing another one of your diatribes, rehashing the same tired objections over, and over, and over, and over again. I'm a cripple in a Gulag on the Last Great Frontier, what better do I have to do with my time?
RE
Title: - Economic Errata
Post by: TDoS on Mar 15, 2024, 08:13 PM
Quote from: TDoS on Mar 15, 2024, 03:30 PMAnd peak oil was all about a given point in time, a single event, day and year, and folks went for that hook, line and sinker. Thanksgiving Day, 2005. You can talk to me about dementia because it runs in the family, what's your excuse missing one this obvious? Selective memory? Indigestion? Irritated because the next day the blessed consequences hadn't appeared yet?
Because I never was much of a Peak Oil aficionado, despite beginning my investigations into the dynamics of collapse on the peakoil.com website. I was always more drawn to collapse by the economic manifestations, not because of fossil fuels or climate change or species extinctions.
I completely believe you. Most collapse folks tend to have the wideband interest, not the specific. Unfortunately, that is correlated with some folks using mechanisms they aren't familiar with to achieve their prognostications of doom and whatnot.
Quote from: REMy original ID on peakoil was Rogue Economist, I only switched to Reverse Engineer after being booted off for being too argumentative with the moderators and not buying thee party line they were selling completely. You are as much of an ideologue as those folks in the opposite direction, obsessed with proving that Peak Oil is a flawed concept.
Well, peakoil.com always had a beef with folks being argumentative back when peak was as much a faith based concept as anything. They banned me shortly after I began participating as well...mostly for pointing out, as you say, flaws in the theory as it was known at the time. However, we are talking about the 2005-2008 timeframe. By 2010 or so the USGS built a new system covering part of the geoscience puzzle, used it for new estimates, and presented the domestic results beginning at the 2012 AAPG Long Beach California national convention. Part of the global update of the 2000 World Assessment work I believe. Published the method in 2015. Also in 2012 if memory serves, the geologist who led the USGS 2000 World Resources project but was in industry in 2012 spoke the truth of a new concept in resource estimates during an AAPG meeting in Tulsa of that year. His concept included a more dynamic interpretation of resources in the geoscience world rather than static ones that previously infected how peak oils were calculated. In neither of these cases were economics involved, just basic geoscience ideas. In 2017, 2 years after the USGS had made their new method public, EIA analysts at the world energy modeling convention in Maryland demonstated the real world results of the use of a system based on these new ideas, and threw in economics to boot.
Peak oil was a flawed idea, way back when. From several perspectives. It isn't any longer. The only flaw remaining, or final improvement if you'd prefer, is who inside the two organizations who have built these systems will incorporate stochastic principles and publish everything they know.
K-Dog has indicated previously he doesn't seem to think there is much value in research. I disagree. And just demonstrated why.
Quote from: REFortunately for me, you are not the moderator here, I am. I'm a little more lenient than those guys, because I find your repetitious attempts to discredit anything peakoil connected to be hilariously counterproductive.
Power of God. I remember.
Quote from: RESo I periodically bait you into writing another one of your diatribes, rehashing the same tired objections over, and over, and over, and over again. I'm a cripple in a Gulag on the Last Great Frontier, what better do I have to do with my time? RE
Well, your baiting seems reasonable, for exactly the reasons you've described. But I don't just post objections, refuting recycled talking points from the 1990-2010 peak oil period claims isn't even entertainment anymore. The research and work have been done. What I posted is information that you, and old school peak oilers, don't even know came into existence across the last 14 years. Peak oil was solved right under your noses and you missed it.
Lets discuss something more interesting that you do have experience with. I'm headed out to see the eclipse ina couple of weeks, and I know you and K-Dog did this a couple years and websites back. Any suggestions on equipment or things to watch out for, other than don't drive an unreliable car like whatever K-Dog was using that needed towed home?
Title: - Economic Errata
Post by: RE on Mar 16, 2024, 12:24 AM
Quote from: TDoS on Mar 15, 2024, 08:13 PMWell, your baiting seems reasonable, for exactly the reasons you've described. But I don't just post objections, refuting recycled talking points from the 1990-2010 peak oil period claims isn't even entertainment anymore. The research and work have been done. What I posted is information that you, and old school peak oilers, don't even know came into existence across the last 14 years. Peak oil was solved right under your noses and you missed it.
Since I mainly follow economics, I never looked at Peak Oil as a problem in need of solution. The problem in need of solution for me is in the value of money and its ability to function to adequately distribute resources to the global population of homo saps. You're the one who is obsessed with Peak Oil here, not me. You rant on and on about it, and consider the problem solved, which I don't believe is true but even if it was, the problem of the piss poor condition of the monetary system the world runs on hasn't been solved, and is in fact in far worse condition than it was in 2008-10. Unless you believe that the problem of population rising and resources depleting was solved when the problem of Peak Oil was solved right under my nose, Houston, we still have a problem as far as I am concerned. I generally don't even bother responding when you start referencing studies which you feel corroborate your thesis that the Peak Oil problem was solved. It's exactly the same debating technique Dr. McStinksion uses when he gives one of his lectures to establish the scientific bona fides behind his belief that the question of Near Term Human Extinction has been resolved, and science proves we all went extinct back in 2016, just we haven't noticed yet. The research you cite is only part of a much bigger picture and proves nothing about the viability of industrial civilization as we move forward here. Nevertheless, you regale us with this information over and over, and over and over again as though these earth shattering revelations prove all discussion of collapse are wrong, because they're always wrong, etc, etc, etc. It's ridiculous, and if you weren't so fixated on it you might be able to see how ridiculous it makes you appear, but you can't see it. That is not my problem, it is your problem.
QuoteLets discuss something more interesting that you do have experience with. I'm headed out to see the eclipse in a couple of weeks, and I know you and K-Dog did this a couple years and websites back. Any suggestions on equipment or things to watch out for, other than don't drive an unreliable car like whatever K-Dog was using that needed towed home?
The car was I believe his Mercedes. I think he replaced that one with a newer model, though not brand new itself when he bought it.
Main things to have are the practically opaque sunglasses needed to look directly at the eclipse and a good still camera and video camera to record it. You'll need filters that fit over the lenses of those cameras, but don't spend the ridiculous amount of money for custom ones for your Nikon or Hasselblad unless you're Elon Musk, you can buy the filter polymer in 8x10 sheets for a few dollars and use cardboard, glue & duct tape to make ones that fit your cameras, or cell phone if you're a cheapskate satisfied with phone quality photography. Otherwise, make sure you have the right clothing and rain gear and portable shelter with you, and arrive early at your viewing location tograb a good spot. Camping out a day or two before is wise. Bring plenty of booze, drugs and smokables as well as snacks and BBQ grill.
If you are as lucky as we were and get a perfectly clear day with no clouds to impede the view, it's an unbelievable experience if you are in the Path of Totality. Unless you are on that narrow swath, it's no big deal. Where and when will you go see one?
RE
Title: - Economic Errata
Post by: TDoS on Mar 16, 2024, 01:00 PM
Okay. But you most certainly had it in your handbag of doom symptoms/causes/precursors.
Quote from: REYou're the one who is obsessed with Peak Oil here, not me.
Research isn't obsession. It just means I am far more informed on this particular topic than the generalists.
Quote from: REYou rant on and on about it, and consider the problem solved, which I don't believe is true but even if it was, the problem of the piss poor condition of the monetary system the world runs on hasn't been solved, and is in fact in far worse condition than it was in 2008-10.
The solution to peak oil (in the predictive modeling sense) doesn't require your belief, any more than 2+2=4 does. And you have been using economics in your own way as an explanatory part of your doom trigger going back decades now....Rogue Economist....I didn't need to be told your username earlier.
Quote from: REUnless you believe that the problem of population rising and resources depleting was solved when the problem of Peak Oil was solved right under my nose, Houston, we still have a problem as far as I am concerned.
The other than peak oil problems generated by humanity are legion. Of course we have a problem. We consume.
Quote from: REI generally don't even bother responding when you start referencing studies which you feel corroborate your thesis that the Peak Oil problem was solved.
I didn't espouse a thesis, I related historical information leading to a very specific statement as to how many folks figured it out.
Quote from: REThe research you cite is only part of a much bigger picture and proves nothing about the viability of industrial civilization as we move forward here.
A) I cited no research. I provided a timeline of an event leading to a specific statement as to how many folks have figured it out, and important milestones along the way. If I cited research I would have used footnotes. B) I've never argued the viability of industrial civilization one way or the other.
But this does raise the implication that your "experience" and understanding of the viability of industrial civilization based on a hobbyists understanding IS valid. Generally speaking, I will admit that self learning can be highly effective. But when your application of that level of understanding allows you to conclude that Toyota would be bankrupted during the 2008-2009 recession at peakoil.com, and the same of Tesla years ago on reddit, I might recommend that you put a little more physical science rigor into "solving" what ails your analysis at the micro scale of market watching prior to applying it at the macro level.
Quote from: RENevertheless, you regale us with this information over and over, and over and over again as though these earth shattering revelations prove all discussion of collapse are wrong, because they're always wrong, etc, etc, etc.
You've never seen the timeline before that I just provided. Therefore you've never seen it over and over. It wasn't earth shattering, it was research, spanning more than a decade, arriving at a result. And I didn't say anything about how it relates to collapse.
If you want to just make shit up, you don't need to pretend I'm involved at all.
Quote
QuoteLets discuss something more interesting that you do have experience with. I'm headed out to see the eclipse in a couple of weeks, and I know you and K-Dog did this a couple years and websites back. Any suggestions on equipment or things to watch out for, other than don't drive an unreliable car like whatever K-Dog was using that needed towed home?
The car was I believe his Mercedes. I think he replaced that one with a newer model, though not brand new itself when he bought it.
Main things to have are the practically opaque sunglasses needed to look directly at the eclipse and a good still camera and video camera to record it. You'll need filters that fit over the lenses of those cameras, but don't spend the ridiculous amount of money for custom ones for your Nikon or Hasselblad unless you're Elon Musk, you can buy the filter polymer in 8x10 sheets for a few dollars and use cardboard, glue & duct tape to make ones that fit your cameras, or cell phone if you're a cheapskate satisfied with phone quality photography. Otherwise, make sure you have the right clothing and rain gear and portable shelter with you, and arrive early at your viewing location tograb a good spot. Camping out a day or two before is wise. Bring plenty of booze, drugs and smokables as well as snacks and BBQ grill.
If you are as lucky as we were and get a perfectly clear day with no clouds to impede the view, it's an unbelievable experience if you are in the Path of Totality. Unless you are on that narrow swath, it's no big deal. Where and when will you go see one?
RE
Thank you for the information. I hadn't planned on taking pictures, so I hadn't considered much in the way of my camera equipment. I'll probably modify that plan now. My plan is to spend the night before within 2 hours or so of the path of totality. I've found a location in nowheresville along a small secondary road which just happens to have plenty of pulloffs, intersections with big dirt parking areas. I'm going to go find one and park. If everyone else in the texas/arkansas intersection is doing the same, I will wing it in terms of where I pull over to watch. Paris TX through Mena AK is the general location.
Title: My Car
Post by: K-Dog on Mar 16, 2024, 02:07 PM
QuoteAny suggestions on equipment or things to watch out for, other than don't drive an unreliable car like whatever K-Dog was using that needed towed home?
I still have the car and it is actually reliable. Cruising around Washington State in it is fine. There are thousands of Mercedes here. Montana is a different story. If something goes wrong with it in the middle of nowhere you are screwed. At the time there was only one Mercedes dealership in Montana and it turned out to be the end of a strip mall with one car on display and something about as big as a Jiffy Lube to work on customer cars. It would have taken weeks to get it fixed in Montana before I could get it home.
This one is a 2008 mine is a 2007. Mrs. Dog has a 2008. They are both black.
We arrive at a place together driving separately. People think we actually get along. The truth is we have been trying to get rid of each other for more than forty years. Neither one of us can do anything right.
There was an issue with the transmission. It has been fine since.
Title: - Economic Errata
Post by: RE on Mar 16, 2024, 02:33 PM
Quote from: TDoS on Mar 16, 2024, 01:00 PMBut when your application of that level of understanding allows you to conclude that Toyota would be bankrupted during the 2008-2009 recession at peakoil.com, and the same of Tesla years ago on reddit
I never concluded Toyota would go bankrupt during the 2008-9 financial crisis, and I've never put a timeline on Tesla's inevitable bankruptcy. Like GM, Chrysler, AMC, Nash, Hudson, PanAm, TWA and the Railroads, bankruptcy of any of these finance dependent corporations comes to them all eventually, often multiple times.
Since you claim you don't cite any research, your hobbyist POV is no more valid than my hobbyist POV, it's just more narrowly focused on Peak Oil than my more whollistic POV. The rigor which I consider satisfactory is what I consider enough to convince myself, and any of my readers who are not ideologically driven to argue against it and fixated enough to keep banging away over and over, and over and over the same tired arguments that nobody else here buys but yourself. I may be preaching to the choir, but you are just preaching to yourself here, for what reason other than to convince yourself I can't fathom, since you're not convincing anyone else, and our readership circulation is so tiny it wouldn't make a difference if you did. You waste your time, my time and everyone else's time regurgitating your POV. I have plenty of time to waste given I have little else to do, I guess you also have nothing better to do with your time. So round and round we go, ad infinitum. So it goes.
RE
Title: - Economic Errata
Post by: TDoS on Mar 16, 2024, 07:23 PM
QuoteAny suggestions on equipment or things to watch out for, other than don't drive an unreliable car like whatever K-Dog was using that needed towed home?
I still have the car and it is actually reliable. Cruising around Washington State in it is fine. There are thousands of Mercedes here. Montana is a different story. If something goes wrong with it in the middle of nowhere you are screwed.
That problem I am familiar with. In earlier day for roaming North America (literally, Key West to Prudhoe Bay if the urge strikes) I've relied on toyota pickups and ford pickups. In later roamings I shifted to toyota and ford sedans, if only for the fuel savings. Both brands have decent parts and dealership avaailability, at least near populated areas. Montana is I-95 between NYC and DC compared to heading to Goose Bay, or Prudhoe Bay, some would say US 50 through Nevada might qualify. It doesn't, after you've done the other two. Oh, carry 2 spares and extra parts and whatnot for the easy to fix stuff. After that it is a Premium AAA plan for the 200 mile tow once a year.
This one is a 2008 mine is a 2007. Mrs. Dog has a 2008. They are both black.
We arrive at a place together driving separately. People think we actually get along. The truth is we have been trying to get rid of each other for more than forty years. Neither one of us can do anything right.
There was an issue with the transmission. It has been fine since.
One of my toyota pickups, what should have been an indestructible manual transmission started popping out of 1st gear in Ohio. By the time I got it to Louisiana it was popping out of 5th. But it got me that 1000 miles while towing a trailer with motorcycles on it. Can't really complain, it got the job done regardless.
Title: - Economic Errata
Post by: TDoS on Mar 17, 2024, 06:38 PM
Quote from: RE on Mar 16, 2024, 02:33 PMI never concluded Toyota would go bankrupt during the 2008-9 financial crisis, and I've never put a timeline on Tesla's inevitable bankruptcy.
What's it worth to you for me NOT to prove what I said? Tell you what, check out your reddit posting history back 6 or 7 years ago, before you started catching flack and getting some posts scrubbed and forming globalcollapse. And feel free to revise your prior statement and I won't yuck it up over what you've forgotten. We are all older, we forget. Even more interesting, search about then for your claim of Tesla not being able to quintiple their sales. That search word on titles can't kick back that many results. Just don't compare those annual sales you denigrated to current ones.
As far as Toyota, I'll make you the same deal. Just go search in peakoil.com on Wednesday, Dec 10, 2008 for your posts. 7:46:47 was the time. Not Rogue Economist. Reverse Engineer.
How about we just continue conversing nicely and I skip another demonstration on the value of research?
Quote from: RESince you claim you don't cite any research....
You missed the part where I didn't provide footnotes, ergo, of course I didn't provide research. I provided a timeline. A story. Some history. Not all of it was published research..some was presented at conferences, AAPG, SPE, the big EIA ones in Washington when they were still doing them.
Quote from: RE....your hobbyist POV is no more valid than my hobbyist POV, it's just more narrowly focused on Peak Oil than my more whollistic POV.
At what point when you were passing around published works you claimed were mine, did you get the impression I was a hobbyist?
So am I an expert on some related narrow professional topic you told the mods back then, or not?
Quote from: REYou waste your time, my time and everyone else's time regurgitating your POV. I have plenty of time to waste given I have little else to do, I guess you also have nothing better to do with your time. So round and round we go, ad infinitum. So it goes. RE
How about we change the dynamic then? First, we establish that mentioning a problem solved that wasn't known by anyone on this website and to most of the peak oil world at large isn't a POV. It was just a fact not commonly known.
And I might have mentioned this in other websites along the way, but not made it clear at any of yours as to the WHY I tend to have hung around this topic for so long. Specifically, why I went longer than the first six months after Thanksgiving Day, 2005. The amount of time it took to understand the core of the problem, certainly had no idea where to start, and began...you know...researching the topic.
Title: - Economic Errata
Post by: RE on Mar 18, 2024, 12:57 AM
I'm not going to bother with researching my old posting, I'm suitably honored though that you have made it your hobby in your declining years to make such a comprehensive study of my writing that you can dredge up posting I made all the way back to peakoil.com. :o I have my own historian! lol. Clearly, you have a more comprehensive knowledge of what I wrote than I do. I've written so many posts and blogs over the past 16 years anything is possible in there, just about everything I write is done in a single draft and after I post it, unless a debate ensues where I have to double check what I wrote, I never read it again after I hit the send button. Do you have this stuff catalogued?
Now, although I have suspected for some time that you were my most ardent and loyal reader and troll MKing, it was only after this most recent exchange where you mentioned Prudhoe bay, my history with Reddit and Peak Oil mods that I felt certain of it enough to mention it to K-Dog to decide what if anything we should do about it. Taking the screen ID of Tdos, who was a blogger and Doomsteader I interviewed a few times on the Diner initially made me think it was him writing here now, after having an Ashvin Pandurangi like Religious Revelation and becoming a Born-Again Denier. I'm glad to see that is not the case, and you were just hiding behind another new screen ID to get back to your old job of disrupting the forum by filling the pages with an endless stream of contrarian posting using the same old theme and arguments as always.
Now that you have decided to come out of the closet, the dynamic has most certainly changed. I'll return to the same policies I had the last time I got tired of responding to your never ending stream of repetitive arguments, which is for the moment if you don't clog up the pages with too many daily posts on your own agenda I'll just ignore them or delete them if I find them too insulting or annoying, and I'll give you progressively longer suspensions of your posting privileges if you violate the rules, like your Appeal to Authority claims of your geochemistry papers and status as a big shot in the oil industry. You are already alluding to that, so I think I'll start by giving you a 1 week suspension. Also, when you come back, any complaining about censorship is also a violation of the rules, and commenting only on peak oil and energy topics that fit your agenda is also a violation. This isn't a Peak Oil board, we discuss a wide variety of collapse related topics. You need to contribute to more than just your narrowly focused agenda, and you need to come up with something novel, which I have yet to read.
When you do return, you should also change your ID back to MKing, using Tdos' name as a cover for your identity is an insult to his memory.
RE
Title: Many FBI agents are struggling to make ends meet. Housing costs are to blame
Post by: RE on Apr 12, 2024, 05:52 AM
Many FBI agents are struggling to make ends meet. Housing costs are to blame
RE
Title: Many large U.S. cities are in deep financial trouble. Here’s why
Post by: RE on Apr 25, 2024, 06:43 PM
Reminds me of the 1970s, when NYC was supposedly on the edge of bankruptcy for about the whole decade. Then during the 2008 Financial Crisis it was Harrisburg and a few other cities supposedly going to default on their bonds. Yet somehow, the TBTF banks and Da Goobermint always manage to restructure the debt in some way so BAU goes on and you don't hear about it again for another decade or two. Same shit happens with Sovereign debt and the IMF. Remember Greece and Argentina? Everybody's in a big tizzy, the world's on fire, the sky will fall but then magically after months of secret negotiations in Basel, Switzerland or on Jekyll Island or on Jamie Dimon's yacht in International Waters the Smartest Guys in the Room get it all worked out. $100B in debt seems to just disappear. Some shit gets privatized, public employees take a salary cut, some pensions disappear, loans are rolled over for a longer term, lawyers and accountants are paid a shit load of money, a few dozen high priced hookers get a windfall and the Muni or 3rd World debtor country is once again given the green light to issue new 30 year bonds underwritten by Goldman or JP Morgan Chase and the problem disappears for another generation or so. The problems always seem to arise when there is some kind of deeper problem with the financial system happening, and these debtors are the Canary in the Coal Mine. What's the deeper problem this time?
It's the persistently high inflation Da Fed has not been able to tame with higher interest rates, and despite promises of rate cuts, mortgages are back over 7% and USTs selling at over 5%. Banksters are starved of the Free Money they love to gamble with and the stock prices for companies with absurd P/E ratios start to look increasingly suspicious and ugly. This is a strong leading indicator that we are on the verge of another melt down, which last year I said looked likely for the 2nd or 3rd quarter of this year. We're in the beginning of quarter 2 now, so we'll get to see if I called it right this time or I get a low grade in my ECONostradamus 101 class this semester. 3rd quarter ends Oct 1st, so it's crunch time now.
Many large U.S. cities are in deep financial trouble. Here's why
RE
Title: S&P 500 is at risk of crashing 44% — and selling early could pay off, says elite for
Post by: RE on Apr 25, 2024, 11:39 PM
Well, if I turn out to be wrong, at least I won't be alone. However, if that's the case, I will have been wrong FIRST! lol.
You know what they say about the market...it can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. It's always fun though trying to predict market crashes as a hobby. However, don't risk any real money on it, timelines get changed for all sorts of reasons. Eventually reality always wins, but sometimes the wait for reality to arrive takes longer than expected.
S&P 500 is at risk of crashing 44% — and selling early could pay off, says elite forecaster
RE
Title: US Congressman Introduces Bill To Abolish The Federal Reserve
Post by: RE on May 22, 2024, 01:11 AM
Suggesting Da Fed be Abolished is the kind of thing that gets Presidents assassinated. At least it would if it had a snowball's chance in hell of being passed by CONgress and signed into law by the POTUS. The control of the FSoA money supply is the means by which the Elite Oligarchy controls the Goobermint, along with the bribes paid by the lobbyists on K Street.
The Federal Reserve Bank is owned not by the people, it's owned by the TBTF Banks. The Federal Reserve Act was passed in 1913 in after being drawn up by wealthy Oligarchs meeting in secret of Jekyll Island and voted on just before the Christmas break.
Just before Thanksgiving in 1910, U.S. senator Nelson Aldrich of Rhode Island invited six members of America's banking elite to a covert retreat on Jekyll Island.
The Jekyll Island Club was a private club on Jekyll Island, on Georgia's Atlantic coast. It was founded in 1886 when members of an incorporated hunting and recreational club purchased the island for $125,000 (about $3.1 million in 2017) from John Eugene du Bignon. The original design of the Jekyll Island Clubhouse, with its signature turret, was completed in January 1888. The club thrived through the early 20th century; its members came from many of the world's wealthiest families, most notably the Morgans, Rockefellers, and Vanderbilts. The club closed at the end of the 1942 season due to complications from World War II.
Role in the history of the Federal Reserve
Jekyll Island was the location of a meeting in November 1910 in which draft legislation was written to create a central banking system for the United States. Following the Panic of 1907, banking reform became a major issue in the United States. Senator Nelson Aldrich (R-RI), chairman of the National Monetary Commission, went to Europe for almost two years to study that continent's banking systems. Upon his return, he brought together many of the country's leading financiers to Jekyll Island to discuss monetary policy and the banking system, drafting legislation which was introduced in Congress as the "Aldrich Plan". Some ideas from the Aldrich Plan were later incorporated into the Federal Reserve Act.
On the evening of November 22, 1910, Sen. Aldrich and A.P. Andrews (Assistant Secretary of the United States Treasury Department), Paul Warburg (a naturalized German representing Kuhn, Loeb & Co.), Frank A. Vanderlip (president of the National City Bank of New York), Henry P. Davison (senior partner of J. P. Morgan Company), Charles D. Norton (president of the Morgan-dominated First National Bank of New York), and Benjamin Strong (representing J. P. Morgan), together representing about one quarter of the world's wealth at the time, left Hoboken, New Jersey on a train in complete secrecy, dropping their last names in favor of first names, or code names, so no one would discover who they all were. The excuse for such powerful representatives and wealth was to go on a duck hunting trip on Jekyll Island.
Forbes magazine founder Bertie Charles Forbes wrote several years later:
Picture a party of the nation's greatest bankers stealing out of New York on a private railroad car under cover of darkness, stealthily riding hundreds of miles South, embarking on a mysterious launch, sneaking onto an island deserted by all but a few servants, living there a full week under such rigid secrecy that the names of not one of them was once mentioned, lest the servants learn the identity and disclose to the world this strangest, most secret expedition in the history of American finance. I am not romancing; I am giving to the world, for the first time, the real story of how the famous Aldrich currency report, the foundation of our new currency system, was written ... The utmost secrecy was enjoined upon all. The public must not glean a hint of what was to be done. Senator Aldrich notified each one to go quietly into a private car of which the railroad had received orders to draw up on an unfrequented platform. Off the party set. New York's ubiquitous reporters had been foiled ... Nelson (Aldrich) had confided to Henry, Frank, Paul and Piatt that he was to keep them locked up at Jekyll Island, out of the rest of the world, until they had evolved and compiled a scientific currency system for the United States, the real birth of the present Federal Reserve System, the plan done on Jekyll Island in the conference with Paul, Frank and Henry ... Warburg is the link that binds the Aldrich system and the present system together. He more than any one man has made the system possible as a working reality.[7]
New York real estate developer and director of The Chemical Bank. He had residences in 608 Fifth Ave., New York and a seasonal residence Ochre Point in Newport, Rhode Island
New York real estate developer and director of The Chemical Bank. He had residences at 591 Fifth Avenue, New York and seasonal residences at Tuxedo Park, New York and Ochre Point in Newport, Rhode Island
1886–1899
Frank H. Goodyear
Chairman of the board of the Buffalo and Susquehanna Railroad Co., Buffalo, New York and lumber business magnate.
The first son of William Henry Vanderbilt, an American industrialist and philanthropist who built his wealth in shipping and railroads, and grandson of "The Commodore" Cornelius Vanderbilt.
If you want to put a date to the beginning of FSoA Fascism, it's December 23, 1913, the date Woodrow Wilson signed into Law the Federal Reserve Act. Wilson would later express his regret.
US Congressman Introduces Bill To Abolish The Federal Reserve
RE
Title: Hedge fund billionaire says US may face ‘worse than a recession’ from Trump tariffs
Post by: RE on Apr 14, 2025, 10:00 AM
Fundamentally, money and the banking system is based on TRUST. Whether it's paper bills or coins, it just represents numbers on a balance sheet and is used to measure the relative value in trade of disparate items, from physical goods to labor to ideas and entertainment. Once trust is lost in its value holding reasonably steady from one day to the next, the system fails. What is happening now is El Trumpo is destroying all trust in the system by wildly changing the rules on a daily basis.
I have talked about this many times, but now coming out of the mouth of a Billionaire hedge fund guru like Ray Dalio, people may pay attention.
A recession is two negative quarters of GDP and whether it goes slightly there. We always have those things. We have something that's much more profound. We have a breaking down of the monetary order.
Recessions are bad, monetary system collapse is another can of beans entirely. If something isn't done to stop Trump, he's gonna get it.