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Economic Errata

Started by RE, Apr 07, 2023, 09:45 PM

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K-Dog

#60
QuoteTrump Has Exposed the Fragility of the Global Dollar System

Now it begins: 'corporate' mandated 20 hours a week for associates about a year ago.  Now beginning after the 12th of next month which ends a pay period, my hours are cut.  I will be scheduled for 12 hours a week after that.

Elon wants to take away my Social Security and Trump just docked me $200 a week.  These lame-assed motherfuckers fuck people they never met.

As I was pricing last week.  I could see what we had stocked in the Moreno Valley warehouse by item price jumps.  Things in good supply are not going up in price yet.  Everything else fresh off the boat goes up.

QuoteWe hope you don't look for a new job.  We really like you here, and we hope you stay.

Of course, what is happening to me is across the board so where would I go?  The stock market will do fine for a while.  Unemployment makes it healthy,  until the unemployed can't buy any shit.  That comes next.  In the meantime my work wages are cut in half and my zeros are going to stop growing.  Trump the thief becomes a real billionaire instead of the pretend one he has been.

RE

One of my CNAs makes Xtra money on days off shopping 4 Instacart.  Maybe you could do that to add some hours.

RE

K-Dog

#62
Quote from: RE on Apr 26, 2025, 07:47 AMOne of my CNAs makes Xtra money on days off shopping 4 Instacart.  Maybe you could do that to add some hours.

RE

I am going to spend a month on the reduced hours at least.  We are going into good weather, and I need to tend to the yard and house.  If I decide I need more hours, I will move.

I'm not complaining about the extra bandwidth.  For now.

I probably will be complaining later as I doubt they will do the decent thing and cut a day a week.  They will expect the same team commitment coverage-wise.  More for less when viewed from a correct perspective.

I'm Ok, Other people are going to be singing a much sadder song.

TDoS

Quote from: K-Dog on Apr 26, 2025, 06:53 AM
QuoteTrump Has Exposed the Fragility of the Global Dollar System

Now it begins: 'corporate' mandated 20 hours a week for associates about a year ago.  Now beginning after the 12th of next month which ends a pay period, my hours are cut.  I will be scheduled for 12 hours a week after that.

Well,  gut punch to be sure. But in a world of McJobs, can't you go find one to make up for 2 missing 4 hour shifts?

Quote from: K-DogElon wants to take away my Social Security and Trump just docked me $200 a week.  These lame-assed motherfuckers fuck people they never met.

Well, good thing you've got those low yield investments churning away at...something less than the high yield investments then. I'm sure they didn't have you in mind when beginning to blast away chunks of the federal budget that get in the way of them handing out tax cuts to friends.

Quote from: K-Dog
QuoteWe hope you don't look for a new job.  We really like you here, and we hope you stay.

Sounds like a clue to bail. You live in a non-depressed part of the country, opportunities might be plentiful. And closer to home so you don't need to fuel up with danish and coffee on the way to work, saying some significant fraction of your pay, as you last detailed.

Quote from: K-DogOf course, what is happening to me is across the board so where would I go?  The stock market will do fine for a while.  Unemployment makes it healthy,  until the unemployed can't buy any shit.  That comes next.  In the meantime my work wages are cut in half and my zeros are going to stop growing.  Trump the thief becomes a real billionaire instead of the pretend one he has been.

Reverse mortgage on the house and LIVE IT UP! Round the world cruises and shit like that, no point in leaving it to any never-do-well relatives. Tom Selleck is still hawking those products for high net worth but low cash flow folks isn't it? Dunno...sounds like a potential opportunity to screw over those waiting around for you to keel over AND have a good time before it actually does happen.

RE

This sounds like a lot, right?  In terms of being realistic, it's also pretty out of the question except for grads of Ivy League or other elite universities in a few fields, mainly finance.  We're not talking an advanced degree, just a Bachelor's.

But even with that, compare it to what you started at in 1978 with BA in investment banking at the top banks.  Typical starting salary was $50K, plus bonus and commissions in some positions.

Adjusted for inflation, $50,000 in 1978 is equal to $254,110 in 2025.

Dollar Times

This is why the Middle Class is a vanishing species.  Starting salaries at even the highest levels haven't even come close to keeping up with inflation.  To Boomers though, $100K sounds like a lot of money, particularly for a recent college grad.  A reasonably successful Boomer like Kdog didn't crack 6 digits even at the end of his career in IT with a Master's.

Besides Banking and an elite degree, about the only field I think you could hope to make 6 figures starting out now would be Nursing, and only with Overtime or maybe as a traveling nurse.  Playing pro football doesn't count.

Far as the list in the article goes, who would hire a "Consultant" right out of college?  You need experience and a track record in any field to be a consultant.  Similar with "Supply Chain Manager".  You would need a few years in logistics somewhere before you got a managerial position.  The low end of those job opening examples is a little more realistic.

https://www.msn.com/en-my/money/careersandeducation/new-grads-expect-to-earn-over-100k-right-after-college-on-average-these-are-the-top-fields-to-achieve-that/ar-AA1DttzA

New grads expect to earn over $100K right after college, on average—these are the top fields to achieve that

RE

RE



Taking on debt to EAT is a definite sign of real trouble.  A sign also that there is a reckoning coming in the Consumer Debt sector.  Gotta wonder if the write downs have been priced in on the TBTF bank balance sheets?  There's also weakness in the mortgage market and student debt, now that the Trumpenator has cancelled forgiveness.  Commercial RE also looks bad.  Could be a Perfect Storm brewing.  Individually, maybe you could juggle it around.  All together, much harder to extend & pretend.

https://fortune.com/article/buy-now-pay-later-groceries-economic-concerns-lending-tree-survey/

A quarter of U.S. consumers are now financing groceries with buy-now, pay-later as economic pressures mount, survey says

RE

TDoS

Quote from: RE on Apr 29, 2025, 01:34 AMThis is why the Middle Class is a vanishing species.  Starting salaries at even the highest levels haven't even come close to keeping up with inflation.  To Boomers though, $100K sounds like a lot of money, particularly for a recent college grad.  A reasonably successful Boomer like Kdog didn't crack 6 digits even at the end of his career in IT with a Master's.

Some Boomers cracked $100k by age 30, but drilling wells near the Arctic Circle was a bitch on homelife. No Masters required though. Now, getting back into an office required a 60% paycut. And then ANOTHER 10 years to crack $100k.

But end of career nowadays, no one is talking about $100k, I see ads for assistants to reservoir engineers going for nearly $200k within the last month on Indeed.




TDoS

Quote from: RE on Apr 29, 2025, 01:49 AMA quarter of U.S. consumers are now financing groceries with buy-now, pay-later as economic pressures mount, survey says

RE

Boy the knock on effect of THIS nonsense is going to be interesting. Potentially epic. Borrowing for food is bad news, once I recall using a gas card to get some milk and staples for the kids at a gas station because we didn't have any money in the bank that week. Made me feel like a bag of shit and scared the wife and I into some good habits that with time were quite financially consequential.

K-Dog

QuoteK-Dog didn't crack 6 digits even at the end of his career in IT with a Master's.

   Keep fishing.

RE

Quote from: TDoS on Apr 29, 2025, 04:02 PMSome Boomers cracked $100k by age 30


30 is not straight out of college.  You've had a few years gaining experience and working in the field.

RE

TDoS

#70
Quote from: RE on Apr 29, 2025, 07:37 PM
Quote from: TDoS on Apr 29, 2025, 04:02 PMSome Boomers cracked $100k by age 30


30 is not straight out of college.  You've had a few years gaining experience and working in the field.

RE

I generalized so as to not seem like bragging. I was 26. I had 4 years of experience in the field, but it was all operational. The big money came with switching to drilling horizontal wells at 26. $100k in the 70's and 80's was big money for snot nosed greenhorns.

Get it wrong...and you know....
https://i.guim.co.uk/img/static/sys-images/Guardian/About/General/2010/5/17/1274118899455/Deepwater-Horizon-Oil-Rig-006.jpg?width=620&dpr=1&s=none&crop=none

RE

Yes big money for back then, but still wasn't straight out of college.  The point here though is how what sounds like big money to a Boomer really isn't anymore, and those lucky few Gen Zs who manage to get 6 figures are by 1980 standards getting a very average salary.  $100K today is $20K 1978 dollars.  Your typical middle management drone made $20K.  Union Plumbers straight outta HS made $20K.

RE

TDoS

Quote from: RE on Apr 30, 2025, 06:53 PMYes big money for back then, but still wasn't straight out of college.
True. It was with minimal maturity, a distinct lack of experience in the particular technical exercise. You put out a number for K-Dog of 6 figures towards the end of a career, this number is more the opposite.

Quote from: REThe point here though is how what sounds like big money to a Boomer really isn't anymore, and those lucky few Gen Zs who manage to get 6 figures are by 1980 standards getting a very average salary.
30-40 years of inflation will tend to do that naturally. And your "sounds like to a boomer" is a perspective of those who remember salaries from our early days, which was a long time ago.

Straight out of college I've got a sample size of 2, one started at $50k and the other at $35K. Those two examples both thought it sounded like a bunch of money, but us "boomers" didn't.

Quote from: RE$100K today is $20K 1978 dollars.  Your typical middle management drone made $20K.  Union Plumbers straight outta HS made $20K.

So? None of this is  surprise to anyone familiar with the time value of money. I agree that purchasing power in real dollars is different today than it was in yesteryear, but that statement probably holds true across any say half century time gap.

As far as WHO makes what, that is entirely market driven. I was under the impression that America was creating too many college graduates, compared to what tradesmen can make nowadays. Oversupply, lesser value, under supply, higher value, the economics of all these parts is still basic supply and demand.

America has changed from a manufacturing economy to a service economy as well, another shift along the way that trumpster doesn't seem to get. No one wants to work in a factory manufacturing stuff. So to get them inside America, you will pay more for labor no matter what. Can't wait to see what tomato pickers get paid after trump runs off all the field hands. I'll bet it still won't be enough for pussy American teenagers to do it.


RE

Sure, everybody knows inflation devalues money over time, but in the past the next generation had a better standard of living than his or her father.  A new worker starting out in 1970 was better off than the one in 1920, the one starting out in 2020 was worse off than the one in 1970.

Absolutely, the transition to a service economy which accompanied the offshoring of factory work significantly lowered the average wage, particularly since most service jobs are low skill and not unionized.  The actual value of physical labor has been steadily diminishing since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution and mechanization.  Machines powered by coal or oil were able to do work which previously took 100s or 1000s of homo saps to do.  "22 Billion Energy Slaves" as Jason Heppenstall titled his blog back in the day.

With the advent of AI, many jobs in the white collar world of paper pushers will be taken over by machines, devaluing that form of labor also.  Whether it's a lawyer researching case law or a doctor making a diagnosis, AI will do it faster, more accurately and more comprehensively than a homo sap.  Robots can take over jobs which require both physical actions and decision making capability.  Not really a whole lot left for a meat package to do to earn his daily bread.

In light of this inexorable move, in the event the civilization manages to progress into the techno-futurist world, society will need to devise another means of distributing the wealth than paying for labor, be it physical or intellectual.  Due to its high level of complexity and vast energy demands, I don't  see this techno future as likely, but if it does come to pass it will require a radical change in economics.  That really has not been addressed effectively by techno futurist theoreticians.

RE