Quote from: RE on Dec 21, 2023, 09:40 PM

Quote from: K-Dog on Dec 21, 2023, 03:54 PM

Quote from: RE on Dec 21, 2023, 02:36 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Dec 20, 2023, 08:22 PMThose EVs must have put quite a dent in demand for peak oil half decade ago not to have elicited higher prices.

I don't think it's so much EVs as demand that never returned after the Covid Collapse in 2020.  That squashed a lot of the Chinese demand for oil for factories and construction.

RE

Emissions of CO2 have never been higher.  Reality is in the numbers.  Covid was a bump on the road to ruin.

CO₂ mesured in the atmosphere lags the actual emissions by a few years because it takes a while for it to distribute out.  Plus Oil isn't the only contributor to this number, coal and NG contribute significant amounts for electricity generation.

All the production graph says is that Peak Oil PRODUCTION came in 2018, not how much carbon was burned from all sources and contributed to the current measurement.  Considering that global population has increased at the same time, that tells us per capita consumption of oil must have decreased as well, except for the amount in storage which is not that huge.

At least in the FSoA, this hasn't affected the price of gas at the pump that much, likely because total global demand is down and happy motorists here are driving fewer miles.  Unless there is some kind of economic miracle, demand will continue to drop.  It's called Demand Destruction, and I've written about it many times in the debates between Inflationists and Deflationists.

RE

Currently CO2 Emissions per Capita are 4.76 tons per person worldwide.  There has NOT been a decrease in per capita consumption.

It is an often repeated claim that it takes a few years for the effects of CO2 to manifest.  I take that often repeated claim as proof that humans are not actually a sentient species.

THERE IS NO SCIENCE BEHIND THAT CLAIM WHATEVER!

If it were a few years we could not see a seasonal variation which I account for by always comparing months a year apart.  If it were a few years we would never see the squiggles.  We do.



Mixing CO2 in the atmosphere only takes a few weeks, and emissions start out effectively being mixed already since there are millions of widely distributed sources.  The big adjustment is the northern hemisphere emits more CO2 and that excess has to be mixed in through the equator to reach the southern hemisphere.

The average doomer buys into the 'it will be worse later' bull because a doomer wants to say it is going to get worse.  The average denier also buys into the same bullshit because worse later feels better right now, and people become pacified sheep at the news.  Everybody likes to pontificate that it gets worse with time for their own reasons.  It is all emotion without any science.

It will get worse with time, but not because of the CO2 that is already there.  It will be from the new CO2 that we add.

Most people don't 'do science'.  If I sound like a pompous ass for saying that, I don't give a fuck.  It is true.

Existing CO2 molecules start gobbling up infrared radiation as soon as daylight breaks.

Per capita consumption increases not decreases.  Developing countries and JEVON'S PARADOX ensure that any reduction of carbon footprint by the average upper 10% (Americans and others) is offset by new consumers making per capita consumption go up.

Note:  Here is where the Doomstead has value.  Average perception of the resource/climate situation by the general public remains at a cave man level.  The Doomstead is a resource to show that incremental change to the status-quo will not manage collapse.  We are here to show that fundamental change in the structure of current social arrangements has to happen to manage collapse.  Only then will we save as many as we can, and can all dogs eat.

*******

When you see charts like this one below remember the bottom is like an iceberg hidden below the waves.  The bottom  of this graph is down by your feet so all we are seeing is small variation that looks big on the top.



Covid was a blip on the conservation radar.  But we have now passed 2016 consumption levels and are on the way up AS FAST AS EVER!  Consuming ourselves to death.

Peak oil was a more useful concept twenty years ago than it is now.  With tight oil coming along the concept of a single peak became antiquated.  The actual peak is bumpy with a blunderbuss of complex technologies, sources, and political arrangements making it so.

* We also made the mistake of thinking that a bell curve shaped curve is so simple an average person can understand it.  In that we are wrong.  Very wrong.

Conventional oil peaked but with so many kinds of oil the conventional peak is not as significant as we thought it would be.  We expected a sudden crisp change in economic conditions, but the momentum of new technologies and human interactions does not make for a distinct peak, and a sudden change.