Quote from: TDoS on Feb 04, 2024, 07:45 AM

Quote from: K-Dog on Feb 03, 2024, 11:37 PMM.King Hubbert predicted how oil depletion would work out. 

Ummm...that chart of oil production? It is of the US peak, he published it around 1956 and became famous for it. Just for the sake of accuracy and what was defined as working out, his number for 2024 looks to be about 600-700 million barrels/yr or so.

The right answer for 2024 is off the chart, above 4 billion a year. So if Hubbert predicted how oil depletion works out....apparently oil depletion disagrees.

No, Hubbbert was spot on.  All he ever talked about was CONVENTIONAL oil.  The technology to do fracking was around but the inside 'story' of fracking at that time was a secret kept by the oil companies.

I heard about fracking for the first time  in 1974.  The first oil crisis had just ended and I was working in a gas station and some guy came through.  I was talking about oil depletion even then.  To which this man told me that there was enough oil in rock under the Midwest plains to last hundreds of years.  He told me like he was revealing a secret.  I think he was.

It would have been irresponsible for Hubbert to speculate about how much fracked oil could contribute.  The technology was known about, but it had not been implemented.



Here a graph shows conventional oil WAS declining as predicted.  There is more than what Hubbert predicted, and I'll suggest the difference is only due to water injection.  Something else that would have been irresponsible to consider on that graph.  A graph which can only be about one thing.

The graph shows what will happen if oil is extracted by conventional means only.  That was the point, and to suggest (not by you, others could) that the graph could start out as one kind of oil and finish with another kind of oil is nothing but dim. There was no fracking in Hubbert's time.

Look at this graph and compare the values for 2008 before fracked oil became a thing.  Hubbert was not far off at all. Hubbert was right.  When the graph was drawn there was only one kind of oil.  Current raw numbers mean nothing without a qualification about what kind of oil is being talked about.

I watched a video about a rod-line pump jack that is likely the last one being used in Oklahoma yesterday.  It puts up a barrel and a half per day.  It is the  last pump jack on a rod line that once had three or four other pump jacks.  The oil is conventional oil about 450 meters down.  It supplies the needs of thirty Americans, but the line once served the needs of many more.  The jack has been pumping continuously since 1956 and was bought from a junkyard.  The owners of the lease bought and sold used oil equipment.  The Simplex pump was obsolete in 1956.  I did some research to find out what it was and how it worked.



That is the only kind of oil Hubbert was ever talking about.

I remember a line from I think.  'The Party's Over' by Richard Heinberg - "A hundred years from now somewhere someone will be pumping oil."

Perhaps someone will ride up on a horse in fifty years and the pump jack will be clanging away.

Guarded by a Boston Robotics robot with an M-16.