Quote from: TDoS on May 18, 2024, 07:14 AMSome knew that peak oil was a crock from the same data that the suckers who fell for it used. Was it because

I am not going to argue this, but I will express my annoyance.

Hubbert described a model which described how oil would deplete.  Given the data he used the model was 100% correct.  Does his model describe actual reality? If you plug in real world data it does.  Data which Hubbert did not have.

Math models often can be poor in predicting exactly what will happen because math models are always an abstraction of reality.  Typically valid over a narrow linear range.  Models properly built do express the form real world events will take.  But math models are no better than the data that is used.  Garbage in gives garbage out, and the model has to be correctly built to begin with.

Hubbert gave his talk and drew his graph.

The graph is only output from his peak oil model given knowledge of oil deposits at the time.  The graph is not the model itself.  Graphs only show results and Hubbert's graph is correct given the data he had.

We have better data then Hubbert did fifty years ago.  Now we know shit will start hitting the fan hard in ten years.  In ten years all global fossil fuel liquids will be in sharp decline.

On the bright side.  Oil tankers that will move Antarctic oil up across the roaring forties will be built strong enough to survive the new hurricanes which global heating shall bring.  There is another math model that describes that.