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    - Reality?

    Started by K-Dog Jun 02, 2024, 10:40 AM

    Message path : / Doom Philosophy / Doom literacy / Reality? #3


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    K-Dog

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    Jun 02, 2024, 10:40 AM

    Hanna says she is a data scientist.  Meaning she gave herself permission to cherry-pick a few graphs and ignore some others, because halfway through:

    QuoteWe need to move away from fossil fuels while feeding eight, nine, ten, billion people  at the same time.

    Not possible.  Hanna has no graph to show how to do this.  Hanna Ritchie is a nice enough person.  As human intelligence goes Hanna seems to be on the high side of the curve.  Dummies don't give TED talks.  But Hanna smokes the hopium.

    Hanna is a nebie to the world of doom.  Hanna does not understand how big eight, nine, ten, billion people is.  She is a data scientist really?  How does a data scientist not understand overshoot and that eight, nine ten billion is Overshoot-R-Us.

    Fun fact:  People, livestock and pets dominate the overall picture of life on Earth. Homo sapiens with a total weight of 390 million metric tons, is slightly less than the weight of domesticated cattle which is 420 million metric tons.
    Dogs rank fifth at 21 million metric tons but still constitute about as much mass as all wild land mammals combined.

    Hanna's talk is 100% hopium.  She has not read up on Jevons paradox.  If she has she has not thought about it.  Hanna does not understand that when efficiency meets an exponential curve, the exponential curve wins.  Always!  The only way for humanity to endure, is to plant a new fruit tree in the garden of Eden! 

    But that won't happen.  Modern culture has other ideas.  Modern culture wants to cut the penis off and go trans.  But going trans won't save shit.  Going trans will only confuse people and will provide no social benefit.  Other useless eaters will breed around trans as the movement goes the way of Shakers.

    There is an advantage to being a long-term doomer.  Knee-jerk solution which are so attractive to a new doomer are seen as the empty promises they are. 


                    William Stanley Jevons
    Hanna is going to save the world by making sure wind and solar is cheap.  This is abysmal ignorance.  When the cost of using a resource decreases, it becomes more attractive for consumers and industries to use it. The increased affordability of a resource leads to higher consumption which offsets any initial gain in efficiency.

    It is a contradiction.  People who become interested in the future are the same people who are most uncomfortable with the reality and mathematics of the actual situation.  Intelligent people are more facile with self-deception compounding the problem.  It takes about two years for a person to overcome hopium confirmation bias on average.  Some people never do.

    Hanna is a data scientist with a severe case of confirmation bias.  How do I know?  Because she told us she is a data scientist, that is how. 

    Hanna is saying she is right in a socially acceptable way so likely you did not pick up on it.  Credentials. 

    Once we accept a person as an authority.  (I am a data scientist) we generally stop thinking about the substance of what they say and we simply accept it.  This is another hockey stick graph we have not seen I think, reason being: The more things get crazy the more people will be playing follow the leader and unfortunately any leader will do.  With leaders having an anti-populist agenda generally being more popular than boring politicians who have the best interest of the nation at heart.

    Basic Al Bartlett stuff.  Al and others (Sid Smith) make a big deal about the day before an exponential growth event becomes painfully apparent, it is hardly noticed at all.

    Hanna does not understand the energy density of fossil fuels and how their are no substitutes for fossil fuels given the overpopulated nature of a planet in overshoot.

    Overshoot works like this.The character Mike Campbell in the 1926 novel "The Sun Also Rises" was asked about his money troubles and responded with a vivid description.

    Quote"How did you go bankrupt?" Bill asked.

    "Two ways," Mike said. "Gradually and then suddenly."

    Currently we be doing the gradual.

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