QuoteIt's definitely an interesting way to present the situation to J6P, because it makes it APPEAR that there's plenty of oil and once the economy recovers, all will be well again.

Exactly, the promise of good times is more veiled.  The public is no smarter but the reality of limits requires that deception be more nuanced.  This is important since the danger the public could realize they have the power to demand change is real.  The sheep must be kept snoozing.

Knowing that good times are coming increases tolerance for the wars.

This is interesting, the report gives numbers, which with enough thought could be put into a model and run through Dynamo to gain insight on how much rubber is on the road regarding this oil glut claim.  I don't know enough to do this now.  Being concerned as I am to get Dynamo working, the use side of things is not my priority yet.  It will be a priority when Dynamo is finished.  The users manual will tell me when I have 100% functionality.

But : OILSTOCK.K=OILSTOCK.J+(DT)(OILPUMPED.JK-OILBURNED.JK)

is a Dynamo equation. The stock of oil in the next time increment denoted by the 'K' suffix on the variable is equal to the stock at the present time, ('J' suffix) minus the difference between oil pumped out of the ground and oil used up multiplied by the time increment.  DT is the time increment.  In an oil glut model setting the time increment to a day would make sense.

The stock of oil influences price.  This affects the OILBURNED.KL rate calculation which Dynamo already computed in the model equations.  I can say this because I know how it works.  OILBURNED is the rate of use with its own defining equation.

One equation is something we do not need Dynamo to understand.  But with a few dozen equations which properly designs a model for a given situation, the Dynamo equation calculator is used to see what the consequences of assumptions are.  It evaluates feedback.  In this case we could figure out what the IEC ASSumptions might be that results in their prediction.

Dynamo evaluates feedback, so watch out Guy McPherson.  I'll be coming for you.  Seriously.  A Dynamo model can tell us how Venus we might get.

Or not!

I may be exaggerating, I do not know.  I have Dynamo on my Brain since I managed to get the engine running in my concept car version night before last.  Time will tell.

There should be a go fund Keith for my efforts.