At least according to Wolfstreet, the Year of Reckoning has arrived for CMBS with the ball dropping and ringing in 2025. Not to worry though, our treasured banking system is safe!
Office debt alone isn't big enough – at less than $1 trillion, it accounts for only about 16% of total CRE debt – and is held too broadly by investors, such as these hapless CMBS holders, to do serious damage to the US banking system
This reassurance tacked onto the end of this article is pretty broad, and it's hard to imagine how $1T in write downs won't havee some kind of effect on overall liquidity as well as capital requirements for the banks holding the paper. Like all the rest of their assets, this paper gets rehypothecated a few times, and anyone short of cash has to sell something. So even if the CMBS of the office space by itself isn't enough, as the losses cascade through the various markets, other problems as yet unidentified pop up. A particular weakness would be in the stock market, which based on historically highly overvalued P/E ratios looks set up to take a hit.
We also have the very unstable political situations in Europe and MENA, so I expect to see some crack develop in the financial markets over the next couple of months. We'll see.
https://wolfstreet.com/2024/12/31/office-cmbs-delinquency-rate-spikes-to-a-record-11-surpassing-the-peak-of-the-financial-crisis/
Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to a Record 11%, Blowing by the Financial Crisis Peak
RE
Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to a Record 11%, Blowing by the Financial Crisis
Started by RE Dec 31, 2024, 01:59 PM
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