At least according to Wolfstreet, the Year of Reckoning has arrived for CMBS with the ball dropping and ringing in 2025.  Not to worry though, our treasured banking system is safe!

Office debt alone isn't big enough – at less than $1 trillion, it accounts for only about 16% of total CRE debt – and is held too broadly by investors, such as these hapless CMBS holders, to do serious damage to the US banking system

This reassurance tacked onto the end of this article is pretty broad, and it's hard to imagine how $1T in write downs won't havee some kind of effect on overall liquidity as well as capital requirements for the banks holding the paper.  Like all the rest of their assets, this paper gets rehypothecated a few times, and anyone short of cash has to sell something.  So even if the CMBS of the office space by itself isn't enough, as the losses cascade through the various markets, other problems as yet unidentified pop up.  A particular weakness would be in the stock market, which based on historically highly overvalued P/E ratios looks set up to take a hit.

We also have the very unstable political situations in Europe and MENA, so I expect to see some crack develop in the financial markets over the next couple of months.  We'll see.

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/12/31/office-cmbs-delinquency-rate-spikes-to-a-record-11-surpassing-the-peak-of-the-financial-crisis/

Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to a Record 11%, Blowing by the Financial Crisis Peak

RE

Shoulld be fun watching the Trumpenator handle a housing crash.  He's a real estate genius after all. 


RE

Trump intends to buy low and reward his monied base with foreclosures.  Then they will be rented out. 


Capitalism is morphing to eliminate personal property.  Doing exactly what red-neck dumfucks said communism would do.  Actually alternative systems could do much better at preserving personal property because alternative systems know it represents frozen labor and not casino winnings.

When everything is commodified capitalism will have made slaves of us all.  Cept for the owners  .

Top Industries, federal election data for Donald Trump, 2024 cycle

Rank      Industry        Total

8    Real Estate    $19,777,542

Trump has two kinds of people in his base.  Those with money, and those who voted for him.

Quote from: K-Dog on Apr 27, 2025, 11:22 AMCapitalism is morphing to eliminate personal property.  Doing exactly what red-neck dumfucks said communism would do.

Thus the reason the Nazi Party was originally called the National Socialist Party.

RE

Quote from: RE on Apr 27, 2025, 11:31 AM

Quote from: K-Dog on Apr 27, 2025, 11:22 AMCapitalism is morphing to eliminate personal property.  Doing exactly what red-neck dumfucks said communism would do.

Thus the reason the Nazi Party was originally called the National Socialist Party.

RE

The full name of the Nazi Party was "National Socialist German Workers' Party" (Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei or NSDAP in German). They included "socialist" and "workers" in the name for propaganda reasons — to attract working-class Germans who were suffering during the chaos of post-World War I Germany.  They used "socialist" to sound appealing to the masses with actual policies favoring corporations, the military, and elite control.  They opposed true leftist movements violently.

In 1924, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (actual socialists) were one of the most powerful political parties in Germany with a membership of 1,011,000 members.  The competition put socialism in their name too.