I don't make much of the accuracy of the result. Errors have to cancel each other out. Physics that distribute errors around a central value are limited to specific scenarios.
Vulgar economics is group think, deception, and ass kissing. True that. When a vulgar economist looks at his reflection in a mirror he/she can't see anything.
Real economics says the next 'recession' is going to happen because boom and bust is built into the system dynamics of our economic system. Now it is time for a bust. It is in the cards.
There are a lot of events happening now which could trigger a rather long emergency.
Place your bets. The dice are rolling.
We have a bull in the China shop. A gambler with
. Asking 500 people when shit hits the fan and averaging the result would be interesting. But we have to do the asking at a fair.