SCENARIO: U.S. OIL SUPPLY COLLAPSE FROM GEOLOGIC DEPLETION
Assumptions:
- No new discoveries
- No imports
- Demand stays flat at current rates
- Depletion governed by ~6%/year decline post-peak
✳️ Outcome:
| Year | Daily Domestic Supply (mbpd) | Gap vs Demand (~19 mbpd) |
|---|
| 2025 | 13.0 | -6.0 |
| 2026 | 12.2 | -6.8 |
| 2027 | 11.5 | -7.5 |
| 2028 | 10.8 | -8.2 |
| 2030 | 9.5 | -9.5 |
| 2035 | 7.0 | -12.0 |
➡️ By 2030, approximately 50% of current oil supply will be lost to natural decline.
➡️ By 2035, if demand holds steady, gasoline supply failure becomes imminent.
➡️ By 2035, if demand holds steady, gasoline supply failure becomes imminent.
The idea that less will be used in the future is a fantasy. 'Prices' will go up when production does not meet demand, and demand will be reduced until a hard limit is reached as supply is reduced to the point where society can't function. By then everything will have gone to shit.
By 2030 prices will have to rise to reduce use by 50%. One way or another consumption must fall.