Oil shipments are under attack on multiple fronts as fighting escalates in Red Sea, Hormuz and Black Sea
The two key Middle East oil chokepoints, the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, are now under simultaneous threat from Iran and its Houthi allies. In Europe, the Ukrainians are stepping up attacks on tankers and other ships associated with Russia in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. The Caspian Pipeline Corporation suspended loadings due to Ukrainian attacks, jeopardizing Kazakhstan’s oil production.
The interconnection between all the Oil Resource Wars has really become apparent with the latest expansion to include the Red Sea, Black Sea and Caspian Sea. Iran is the only OPEC country with substantial reserves aligned with Russia. The global war being fought here is designed to take as much of this oil production as possible off line, thus raising the price and allow oil flowing out of the FSoA and other West aligned nations reap Windfall profits as long as they can still refine it and bring it to market.
The main questions revolve around how long Russia can go with their revenue stream so reduced and how long the Chinese can last on their reserves and using alternative energy resources. At some point both countries will need to more directly interfere with the oil production out of other nations to retaliate. I can see oil pproduction facilities in Africa and South America becoming targets fairly soon.
Further into the future, the question is how long before Hot War crosses the pond to the New World? Production facilities in the GoM would be most likely, Oil Platforms out there are Sitting Ducks. Most of the Drones don't have the range for attacks from Iran or Russia, but it shouldn't be long before long range drones capable of making the crossing become available. Also possible that Brasil or Colombia could get drawn into the wars as staging ground.
Finally, when, where and who will it be that becomes desperate enough to use a Fusion Nuke to really do some damage to production? One massive H-Bomb air burst blast over the GoM could take out a dozen oil rigs without killing too many people or leaving to much area uninhabitable. Not out of the question strategically speaking.
RE