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Oil supply

Started by K-Dog, Apr 08, 2026, 04:54 PM

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CNBC.COM 2026-07-28

Oil shipments are under attack on multiple fronts as fighting escalates in Red Sea, Hormuz and Black Sea

The two key Middle East oil chokepoints, the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, are now under simultaneous threat from Iran and its Houthi allies. In Europe, the Ukrainians are stepping up attacks on tankers and other ships associated with Russia in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. The Caspian Pipeline Corporation suspended loadings due to Ukrainian attacks, jeopardizing Kazakhstan’s oil production.


The interconnection between all the Oil Resource Wars has really become apparent with the latest expansion to include the Red Sea, Black Sea and Caspian Sea.  Iran is the only OPEC country with substantial reserves aligned with Russia.  The global war being fought here is designed to take as much of this oil production as possible off line, thus raising the price and allow oil flowing out of the FSoA and other West aligned nations reap Windfall profits as long as they can still refine it and bring it to market.

The main questions revolve around how long Russia can go with their revenue stream so reduced and how long the Chinese can last on their reserves and using alternative energy resources.  At some point both countries will need to more directly interfere with the oil production out of other nations to retaliate.  I can see oil pproduction facilities in Africa and South America becoming targets fairly soon.

Further into the future, the question is how long before Hot War crosses the pond to the New World?  Production facilities in the GoM would be most likely, Oil Platforms out there are Sitting Ducks.  Most of the Drones don't have the range for attacks from Iran or Russia, but it shouldn't be long before long range drones capable of making the crossing become available.  Also possible that Brasil or Colombia could get drawn into the wars as staging ground.

Finally, when, where and who will it be that becomes desperate enough to use a Fusion Nuke to really do some damage to production?  One massive H-Bomb air burst blast over the GoM could take out a dozen oil rigs without killing too many people or leaving to much area uninhabitable. Not out of the question strategically speaking.



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Crude stockpiles also running low.  Should get interesting when they bottom out.  Timing could put it right in front of the election.  Cross your fingers.

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K-Dog

#77
 

All Iran has to do is let time do it's work.  Trump does not care about Americans, and Iran knows that fact all by itself will destroy the U.S. over time.  America rots from within, wait long enough, endure the stench, and America will be gone.  The fool will destroy it.  And America is too weak to stop him.

As evidenced by :



Did they run out of Friday night Prime Rib?  Will this story reach Fox News?

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Quote from: K-Dog on Aug 12, 2026, 09:46 PMDid they run out of Friday night Prime Rib?  Will this story reach Fox News?

Sure to be denied as Fake Newz.

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Still nothing from MSM sources, but obviously not Fake Newz.

With 7 Grunts Dead, this will be a major story.  Doubtful it can be contained long.


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Well, it's made it to the MSM branded as a "mental health crisis".  Nothing about Mutiny, Riot or Dead Grunts so far.

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K-Dog

#81
 
Caligula / Mar-a-Lago
 

Rhyming Times these are.  Not talking about making war on the sea, which taking possession of the straight of Hormuz is.  The mad king parallel rhymes like a wine glass shattered by a singers voice.

The actual beach where Caligula commanded his legions to attack the surf was the coast of northern France facing Britain.  When reality resists a mad emperor's grand plans, even the sea will become the stage for rage.  He howls at the tide, but his screams are drowned by the noise of thundering surf.


QuoteThe Senate whispered in hushed tones, while the people spoke openly of their emperor's divine victory.

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Diesel is definitely the more important distillate as far as oveerall inflation is concerned.  Gas just affects Happy Motoring, Jet Fuel Fearless Flying, but Diesel hits the prices of everything we eat, every toy we buy, every McMansion being built and every mine digging rare earth minerals out of the ground.  How much it costs your city to do snow removal this winter and how much to pump the fresh water and the sewage.  Up go the taxes to pay for it.

The Inflation is bad enough, but if/when real shortages develop, the very life blood of industrial society drains away.  It's like Bleeding Out for the whole civilization.  Drones & Missiles hit a few more refineries and we'll get there sooner rather than later.


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How high does the price have to go in the FSoA before we get the riots too?  I would think $10/gal should do it.  Of course Amerikans are so fat & lazy they can't get up off the couch to riot.

Amerikan Exceptionalism.  It's all good as long as it's somebody else's problem. 🙄


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TDoS

Quote from: RE on Sep 16, 2026, 03:21 PMHow high does the price have to go in the FSoA before we get the riots too?  I would think $10/gal should do it.  Of course Amerikans are so fat & lazy they can't get up off the couch to riot.

$10/gal could do it. I would simply ease more into using the EV, as the Boy Scouts say, "Be Prepared!".

The solar panels and whole house backup battery permits have made it through the process, installation coming soon. I don't get it, to some extent. The advent of the Chevy Volt should have been a clue, oil folks certainly didn't sit idly by waiting in line for some pollution spewing monster truck or another. After all..peak oil was coming! The Volt was released 16 years ago, like, 2 or 3 peak oils ago!





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A volt can get you to the store.  Hard to say what you'll find there, since electrifiication of trucks hasn't gone too well.

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It's Harvest time too!  Between the Diesel foor the Tractors and the Diesel for the Trucks, Food Inflation has a ways to go.  Of course, Food & Fuel aren't counted in the "Core" inflation figures. 🙄  Counts in your wallet though.  At least they can still buy it here though.  For now.

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K-Dog


K-Dog

Quote from: RE on Sep 16, 2026, 03:21 PM

How high does the price have to go in the FSoA before we get the riots too?  I would think $10/gal should do it.  Of course Amerikans are so fat & lazy they can't get up off the couch to riot.

Amerikan Exceptionalism.  It's all good as long as it's somebody else's problem. 🙄


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The out of date tune that refuses to get irrelevant.

Just as well since all rioting will do is get you hurt.  Would $10/gal gas do it ?  I think that might get a few pussy hats out of the closet.  Then the hatters can drive down to a designated area to protest, and then drive home.  Stopping for a snack along the way. 

The number of people who understand 1. and 2. give a shit about the issues is what ?

1 in 10,000 or less, that is what I am guessing.  Add the giving a shit part into the count, the ratio drops to maybe 1 in 50,000 as the better answer.

Leading to the conclusion that we can all bend over and kiss it goodbye !





I don't know Spanish and have no idea what she is saying. 


TDoS

#89
Quote from: RE on Sep 16, 2026, 05:29 PMA volt can get you to the store.  Hard to say what you'll find there, since electrifiication of trucks hasn't gone too well.

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Oh, Elon branching out with his big rigs from California like years ago seems to be proceeding exactly as expected. Start small, learn, do better,faaster, cheaper and presto....electrification of trucks looks like it is following the same path as EVs in general. Like he did with ebay, and as of late, knocking off various space delivery folks....otherwise known as "countries".