Gulf Stream Could Collapse As Early As 2025, Mini Ice Age On The Way: Study

[RE]

Well, instead of runaway global cooking, the latest prediction is that we're going into a New Ice Age resulting from a collapse of the Gulf Stream as early as 2025.  This is the scenario depicted by Master of Disaster Roland Emmerich in his "Day After Tomorrow" masterpeice.

Now, either way the current civilization crumbles, but it does make a difference in terms of extinction.  I think extinction is less likely under the ice age scenario.

Which way do Diners think it will go?  Inquiring minds want to know.

https://www.ndtv.com/science/gulf-stream-could-collapse-as-early-as-2025-mini-ice-age-on-the-way-study-5061782

Gulf Stream Could Collapse As Early As 2025, Mini Ice Age On The Way: Study

RE

[RE]

These studies of potential "Tipping Points" are interesting, but the problem is they always are projections of effects that  "might" happen at some indeterminate time in the future.  This simply encourages inaction.  It's not happening NOW and you can't be sure if or when it will happen, so WTF are you supposed to do differently, other than the obvious prescription of stop burning FFs?  Which we all know won't happen, because there isn't enough alternative energy source available at the moment to feed 8B people parading around the planet.

This is why although climate is a long term existential issue, when I observe collapse the near term economic and political tipping points appear far more critical.  It seems unlikely to me BAU will continue on for another 15 or 50 or 70 years when these tipping points are supposed to kick in, and once we have full blown economic collapse people will be dieing like flies from that anyhow.  Political collapse will have them dieing from war.  So we can worry about dieing from climate collapse when we get there, after we finish counting the dead from economic and political collapse.

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4806281-climate-change-earth-systems-collapse-risk-study/

Study finds major Earth systems likely on track to collapse: 5 things to know

RE

[K-Dog]

These studies of potential "Tipping Points" are interesting, but the problem is they always are projections of effects that  "might" happen at some indeterminate time in the future.  This simply encourages inaction.  It's not happening NOW and you can't be sure if or when it will happen, so WTF are you supposed to do differently, other than the obvious prescription of stop burning FFs?  Which we all know won't happen, because there isn't enough alternative energy source available at the moment to feed 8B people parading around the planet.

This is why although climate is a long term existential issue, when I observe collapse the near term economic and political tipping points appear far more critical.  It seems unlikely to me BAU will continue on for another 15 or 50 or 70 years when these tipping points are supposed to kick in, and once we have full blown economic collapse people will be dying like flies from that anyhow.  Political collapse will have them dying from war.  So we can worry about dying from climate collapse when we get there, after we finish counting the dead from economic and political collapse.

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4806281-climate-change-earth-systems-collapse-risk-study/

Study finds major Earth systems likely on track to collapse: 5 things to know

RE

The article was painful to read knowing what I know.  At the end of the day this Hill article will generate more denial than awareness.  The first paragraph is untrue.

Under current policies, the world faces a scenario in which those pillars have roughly even odds of either surviving or collapsing during the next three centuries, according to results published Thursday in Nature Communications.

No.

There are no 'odds' here and to suggest there are is deception.  The planet is already in overshoot and will fail without a change in how humanity makes arrangements.  End of story, the human experiment will die without massive social change.  There is no fifty-fifty chance.  Reality will not roll dice and what the fuck is this three century bizness.  The Amazon will be grassland by 2100^* the way things are going.

A couple of years or so ago I realized discussing tipping points is an expression of ignorance.  In the American revolutionary war there was the 'summer soldier'.  The summer soldier would quit the revolution if the going got tough.  We have the summer 'doomer'.  The summer doomer is only a doomer if their imagined future matches their expectations.  And the summer doomer does not care about any details, they only want drama.  They only seek entertainment.  Tipping points are drama.  Denial generating drama.

Feedback is a real phenomena and the purpose of my DYNAMO software is to reproduce a tool that comes from an ivory tower and make it available to anyone who wants to study feedback. 

Hopefully Guy McFearson can damage a few less people with his fear mongering exaggerations then.  The capable and curious may improve the way they think.

As you say:

Projections of effects that  "might" happen at some indeterminate time in the future.  This simply encourages inaction. 

The drama of 'turning Venus' encourages more denial.  The other side of the denial of reality coin is bat shit crazy belief in doom.  One side of the denial coin is happy happy joy joy, the other side is UNREASONABLE doom.

Today's example of unreasonable doom.

Uncle Karl explained that ideas, values, and beliefs of individuals are shaped by the material conditions of society.  Social and economic conditions, ideas and beliefs are all products of material reality.  Not the other way around.  We do not make the world.  The world makes us.  Most of contemporary society has the wrong idea.

The right idea.

However, we do have will and I am not a machine.  My will is not free.  But in this moment I am conscious and aware of myself.  You may only be a machine.  I meet people who only seem to be machines every day.  About myself I know better.  My conscious awareness makes the difference.  Fully determined I am able to live naturally and make choices.  Real choices from an infinity of possibilities. 

Fully tainted tainted by past circumstance or not, I have choice and I know it.  It may not be much freedom.  Hardly a sliver, but it is enough.  If the water hole has water I can reflect on the infinite.  A free move here, a free move there.  And the changes build as I change the path.  As Robert says, "no microscope can find the sliver of freedom."  It depends on being conscious and aware.  It depends on thinking and reflecting using the natural machinery of humans.  It comes from just the knowing 'I am' and that I can choose.  With natural human tools to make a choice.  And the desire to make a choice.  A desire put there by previous circumstances I admit.  In that sense I am not free.  I could, just as easily have no desire to choose.  But I am in a fortunate space where I can use my natural talents to make choices.  Conscious choices.  The dice rolled the right way today.

I wonder what Robert would say to:  'We have pseudorandom free will given by chaos theory.

Belief in the drama of tipping points denies actual material conditions.  It is emotional and does not rise to the standard of conscious reflection.  Doing the math would move it into that category but nobody does the math.  And the math can be done.  The emotional foundation of tipping points prevents sober understanding of our predicament.  The actual math is more boring.  No tingles of excitement.  Just sober understanding there, no fun.

Feedback exists and it will amplify anthropogenic problems.  But the time scale of any feedback that anthropogenic activity will generate is so long and the COEFFICIENTS OF COUPLING, so low that focus needs to remain on the fundamentals of changing the way we do things. 

Where no progress has been made.  The distractions have been effective.  Does Guy McPhearson work for the dark side?  Only the IRS knows.  But the fact is Guy's extreme distortions are a distraction that inhibits positive action.  He says so:

Our days are numbered.  Passionately pursue a life of excellence.

There it is.  Give the fuck up.  Let the powers that be destroy the planet and use everything up.  Join forces with them and pursue a life of excellence.  See you is Disneyland when you do the mouse!  Guy's message is that you are a useless eater who has no say.  You might as well consume your heart out.  The CIA might as well have Guy on their payroll.

Not being able to change the way we do things (in society) is the real problem we face.  Our problems are not what speculation says could happen in ten years.  Real problems exist NOW, and these real problems are not figments or exaggerations of the imagination.  Focus needs to be on the reality of now and tomorrow, not on future childish excitements and speculations years in the future.

America needs fundamental change.

If all you do is think about tipping points all day long you might as well be working for the dark side.

Make the change.  Stop talking about it.

* According to historical records, the Amazon reached approximately 10% deforestation around 2000.  The Amazon reached approximately 20% deforestation around 2020.

Annual Deforestation Rate  20 years for  550 million hectares gives  27.5 million hectares / year.

Time to Full Deforestation:  Time = 4.4 billion hectares / ( 27.5 million hectares / year ) ≈ 160 years

But 100% grassland by 2100 is likely.  The rate of burning will increase.  Why is a topic for another day.  There will be feedback on a scale that is measured in rate of change / decade.  Feedback on a planetary time scale.  This makes my point.  Planetary time scale.  By 2100 it may be grass and blowing sand.