Parallels with the 1930s

[RE]

Given we have Deja Vu all over again with rising Fascism, concentration camps, nationalism and escalating warfare, a return to protectionist trade policies seems highly likely.  It's not that we don't learn from history, it's that the same causes produce the same effects.  The cause is basically that there is a huge amount of malinvestment and debt overhang in systems that require gobs of cheap energy to run, and the cheap energy is running out.

Leading up to WWII the new systems were automobiles that need petroleum to run and shipping where boats that had been run on coal were being converted to oil as well.  Airplanes also needed the Black Gold.  There was still tons of it untapped under the desert sands of MENA, so a mad scramble took place with the major powers all attempting to grab a piece of that property for themselves.

We have the same problem now with AI needing tons of energy, but unfortunately there's no place left to just punch holes in the ground and get gobs of it practically free.  The debts are coming due on real estate and factories that won't get paid off without continued growth and the banksters are losing faith in each other's currency.  The protectionism is a response to the attempt to extract money from each other from the malinvestment.  The Chinese can produce solar panels and EVs much cheaper because they front loaded and built out their production system on a ton of debt.  To pay it off, they have to sell their EVs and solar panels.  By dropping on tariffs, the FSoA tries to extract money and protect local producers of these items.  The end result is debts don't get paid and banksters get pissed.

Going to war won't solve the problem this time, so there is a lot of confusion about what to do?  Meanwhile in the poorer countries of the world goobermints are collapsing, anarchy and gangs are taking over and refugees are scrambling to get out as fast as they can.  This is creating a backlash in the countries they are trying to migrate to, creating the rising nationalism.

Next step is probably going to be attempts to shut down the borders and increasing civil conflicts between the haves and have nots.  We're closing in on the end game.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce93n7lgw5qo

'Protectionism eroding global business' - world trade chief

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[K-Dog]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce93n7lgw5qo

'Protectionism eroding global business' - world trade chief

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One man's protectionism is another man's 'Planned Economy'.

Another 'He-Haw let the free market run article.


But I'd not expect anything more from the BBC.  Another fascist mouthpiece.

[TDoS]

We're closing in on the end game.
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Could be. Altrnatively, we've been waiting for the end game so long now that we're all scared of dying before it happens, and are hoping if we just click our heels together hard enough and pray and keep repeating ourselves, Richard Duncan's genius idea before its time will FINALLY come true!

Love the cliff in 2008!

Certainly happened to Richard himself, may he rest in peace.

[RE]

2008 was pretty nasty, and it's pretty dark in Houston today.  6 years to 2030, a lot can happen.  It's getting lively anyhow.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/race-restore-17m-still-power-hurricane-beryl-forecasters-warn-dangerou-rcna161073

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[TDoS]

2008 was pretty nasty, and it's pretty dark in Houston today.  6 years to 2030, a lot can happen.  It's getting lively anyhow.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/race-restore-17m-still-power-hurricane-beryl-forecasters-warn-dangerou-rcna161073

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Houston needs to learn how to handle hurricanes. But even lacking that ability, 16 years over the cliff deep into Richard's into blackouts and my guess is even lacking any ability to be prepared,  thtey will cure "the cliff" consequences pretty quickly.

Was in a meeting with 2 Houstonians this very day...they had enough electricity for Teams meetings. I didn't ask if their A/C was functioning, or maybe they were using their EVs to power their house for the day.

[RE]

Oh, I'm sure the class of Houstonians that does Team Meetings at the very least have backup generators that pop on automatically when the power goes out.  The problem is of course the same as in the 3rd World, it's the poor folks who have the least reliable power who also can't afford backup generatorrs or wiring their EV into the home circuit.

Duncan's timeline is Global, not just the professional class of the FSoA.  What wll probably be sorta fixed in a week or 2 in Houston (until next time) is a daily fact of life in Venezurla, South Africa, Croatia etc etc etc.  Puerto Rico is a good case study of what is happening in most of the world outside the FSoA and major western European economies.

https://www.wsj.com/story/why-puerto-ricos-power-grid-keeps-failing-b375500f

However, the very fact that even here in the land of good and plenty anybody who wants reliable power has to set up their own backup systems demonstrates the collapse is well underway.  Back in the 70s-00s, few people had home generators unless they lived totally out in the boonies.  Nowadays you can't trust the power even in big shities like Houston or LA on a hot day.  Throw in a hurricane, wildfire, atmospheric river or ice storm and you can be without ice for weeks.  My sister didn't have power for almost a month after an ice storm a few years back.  Springfield is a decent size small metro with the regional medical center.  Joplin right down the I-44 took months after it got flattened by an F-5 Tornado that ran smack thru the middle of town.  Then of course there was Katrina...

It's also not getting better, it's getting worse, and the Braniacs building AI Data Centers are pouring gasoline on the fire.  I'm sure you will be fine though with your EV hooked to the McMansion, PV panels on the roof and a 10K Watt Generac that switches on seconds after the voltage drops passing through the meter.  You probably won't even notice the lights flicker.

By 2030 with the current trajectory and plans to add load for home heating, more EVs aand AI, we'll be lucky if the lights stay on as much as they do in Caracas today.

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[RE]

Ice still in short supply for your Scotch on the Rocks in Houston..

There were wraparound lines at gas stations and drive-thru restaurants, and people have been racing to find ice to preserve any food they have left. Many have suffered lost wages and spoiled food.

https://www.axios.com/local/houston/2024/07/11/houston-power-outage-storm-beryl-centerpoint

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