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DW.COM • 2026-04-02

Iran war: How long can Tehran's asymmetric strategy hold?

US President Donald Trump has signaled he wants a quick end to the war in Iran, even as US military assets amass around the Persian Gulf, where Tehran is still choking off a substantial chunk of the world's energy supply by blocking the Strait of Hormuz.

In an address on Wednesday evening, Trump said "regime change has occurred" in Iran, and that the US is "on track to fulfill all its objectives very soon."  "Never in the history of warfare has an enemy suffered such clear and devastating large-scale losses in a matter of weeks," Trump said.

How long?  That's EZ.  Indefinitely.

Hegseth just fired the top General, undoubtedly because he informed him of this fairly obvious statate of affairs.

While the Iranian regime can survive even while their infrastructure gets bombed back to the stone age and anyone who has a problem with that there will be given a first class ticket to join his ancestors, Trumpolini and the rest of the industrialized nations can only last until the Bond Vigilantes reprice USTs to the value of the toilet paper they're printed on.  At a certain point in this mess, our friends at the PBoC will exercise the Nuclear Option, and I'm not talking about the kind loaded onto ICBMs.  The FSoA has $30T in debt that has to be rolled over, and they're not gonna find a whole lotta buyers while the oil is penned up in the Gulf of Oman.  Considering relations with the Eurotrash, Da Fed isn't gonna be able to use the Belgians to buy their own debt either, and mortgages and corporate paper interest rates spike as a result.  PK & M E-E know this, but they would spook the market if they said it.  I am under no such constraint. 😀

"Whether Trump walks away or escalates by putting US troops on the ground, there is no clear path towards to removing Tehran's ability to exert leverage over supplies.  A quick victorious war and a quick regime change in Tehran do not look plausible.

"If the bar for the Iranian regime is sustaining some low-level threat to the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, it can likely do this for the foreseeable future," said Campbell."

Indeed.  What does look plausible is a credit lockup that makes 2008 look like the days of wine & roses.

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RESPONSIBLESTATECRAFT.ORG • 2026-04-02

Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

The days of omnipotent U.S. sea power as a power projection instrument close to well defended shorelines are coming to an end. This change raises questions about the future of navies and the wisdom of investment in these extremely expensive instruments of national power.

A brief review of American naval history shows how this shift came about, and casts doubt on whether Washington is ready for the future of naval war.


One of the main problems with military strategists is they often build their armies based on their experience in the last war.  This leads to building systems easily defeated or circumvented by new technologies or strategies.  The Maginot Line is the classic example, built based on the experience of WWI, it was vulnerable to the "Blitzkrieg" strategy pursued by the Nazis in WWII.

The same is now true for the Carrier Group, the very expensive flagship of FSoA Naval Power which has been used to dominate the world militarily since WWII.  Those days are over, which some military strategists realize, but dimwits like Trumpolini and most Repugnant War Hawks don't yet grasp.

I have explained many times in the past why the Normandy style invasion of WWII could never be pulled off today by either the FSoA, China or Russia, the 3 biggest military powers.  Ships at sea are simply too slow moving and vulnerable to much cheaper ballistic & cruise missiles and unmanned drones.  A ship full of grunts heading for some beach is much more likely to have Davey Jones Locker as its final destination than a beachhead.

This is a big playing field leveler for poorer, less technologically advanced countries, and the effectiveness of war to achieve political or economic control over other countries has become vastly diminished.  Perhaps this reality will be grasped in the aftermath of this war.

As it stands, we look to be moving into a period of economic siege warfare, where the side that can last longest under deprivations of war is most likely to win.  Winning here is a relative term though, since both sides are economically damaged by the war.  It's not even a Zero Sum Game, it's negative for everyone.  It will be a very expensive lesson for those who advocate for war to solve political and economic conflict.

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[K-Dog]

EN.APA.AZ • 2026-04-03

U.S. fighter jet shot down in Iran, search underway for crew

Iran has shot down a U.S. fighter jet, per Iranian media and a source familiar with the incident, and a search and rescue effort is underway to locate two crew

A reward will be given to the person who captures the American pilot alive, Iranian state television announced.  According to the statement, the police department of the Kohgiluyeh region has promised a reward to those who assist in capturing the pilot or pilots of a US fighter jet shot down in Iranian airspace.

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HINDUSTANTIMES.COM • 2026-04-03

After US fighter jet downed, Iran state TV urges public to capture pilots, American rescue efforts run into fire

After Iran claimed to have downed a second US F-35 fighter jet, besides an F-15, there was widespread speculation about the fate of the pilots on Friday. US officials later said an American fighter jet, an F-15, was indeed shot down over Iran, and a search-and-rescue operation was underway for survivors.

This will give Trumpolinii some heartburn.

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[K-Dog]

He will have more than heartburn if this comes out. 

theintercept.com • 2026-04-01

“Casualty Cover-Up”: The Pentagon Is Hiding U.S. Losses Under Trump in the Middle East

The Pentagon has sent outdated statements on the number of U.S. troops killed or wounded during the Iran War, resulting in undercounts.

Almost 750 U.S. troops have been wounded or killed in the Middle East since October 2023, an analysis by The Intercept has found. But the Pentagon won't acknowledge it.

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Since 2023?  That goes back to the Uncle Joe years.

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EMPTYWHEEL.NET • 2026-05-07

Trump’s Base Motives

Iranian airstrikes have damaged or destroyed at least 228 structures or pieces of equipment at U.S. military sites across the Middle East since the war began.

Hitting hangars, barracks, fuel depots, aircraft and key radar, communications and air defense equipment, according to a Washington Post analysis of satellite imagery. The amount of destruction is far larger than what has been publicly acknowledged by the U.S. government or previously reported.

No big surprise that Trumpolini has been covering up the destruction of FSoA Airbases in Saudi, Kuwait and Bahrain.  I'd also still bet given that level of destruction that the current claim that only 13 grunts have been killed is a pile of horseshit. 😒

His Trumpness must be wildly pissed off at WaPo & Bezos for doing an end-around on FSoA censorship of Satellite Imagery and getting the facts out. 😁  Jeffy finally does something worthwhile with his media acquisition.

Obviously this clarifies why the Trumpenator wanted a Ceasefire, besides being short on Ammo, half their operating bases have suffered near total destruction and they're short on planes and radar installations.  Also why the war isn't close to being over and Hormuz reopened for shipping the Black Gold to power Happy Motoring and factories around the world.

The Market of course is still in denial and posting record highs on days El Trumpo makes a new claim that "Peace is Just Around the Corner".  When reality finally sets in maybe around Harvest Time, the bloodbath will be worth the wait.

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[K-Dog]

given that level of destruction that the current claim that only 13 grunts have been killed is a pile of horseshit. 😒

It makes you wonder why they even fessed up to 13.

[RE]

given that level of destruction that the current claim that only 13 grunts have been killed is a pile of horseshit. 😒

It makes you wonder why they even fessed up to 13.

They went down in highly visible plane crashes.  Iranian media crowed about it. Grunts on the ground, not so visible.

In this case among the many buildings totally demolished were BARRACKS, where MIRACULOUSLY there were no grunts asleep, smoking reefer or jerking off to internet porn.🙄

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[K-Dog]

And they have stuff they have not even tried out. The dolphin threat.

TASNIMNEWS.IR • 2026-05-10

Iranian ‘Dolphins’ in Strait of Hormuz to Counter Enemy Warships: Navy Chief

The light submarines are commonly referred to by naval officers and personnel as the “dolphins of the Persian Gulf.”

A cross between a submarine and a mine.  I'll guess the things listen to sonic commands like watchdogs would.  Sick em boy!

TASNIMNEWS.IR • 2026-05-07

Iran Not to Compromise on Nuclear Rights: MP

An Iranian lawmaker considered the right to uranium enrichment to be a red line for the country, stressing that Iran will not back down from its nuclear rights.

Do you think so?

As the world goes medieval as fast as the moon circles, perhaps letting the only adults in the room have the same adult toys the children in the room have could be seen as a reasonable concession.  It could even be seen as the smart thing to do.  I'm with Hassan Piker.  Every country over a certain size should have a bomb.

An armed society is a polite society. Manners are good when one may have to back up his acts with his life.

In the case of Iran, a half dozen tactical nukes might count as their single big nuke.  Each with in an escort of a dozen decoys.  That way peace can be kept when the outlaws come to town.

[RE]

In the case of Iran, a half dozen tactical nukes might count as their single big nuke.  Each with in an escort of a dozen decoys.  That way peace can be kept when the outlaws come to town.

I tend to agree that if 1 nation has them, they all should have the same right.  Small & Weak nations that can't afford a big military particularly need them.  It would stop big nations from attacking with conventional weapons & "bombing them back to the stone age".  Or at least think twice before doing so.

The main problem is that if lots of small countries with unstable goobermints have them, what happens when the country gets into a civil war?  Also, the increased potential for non-state actors to have a nuke.  Say here in the FSoA if the Proud Boys or Ku Klux Klan got a nuke?

Frankly, the technology isn't very complex, it's mainly an engineering issue for Uranium enrichment.  I'm sure the North Koreans could ramp up their production and sell tactical nukes on the retail arms market.  Good source of revenue.

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[K-Dog]

I'd love to be able to interrupt an American politician in the middle of saying:

Iran Can't have nuclear weapons.

I'd grab the mike and say:

Why the fuck not.

And I'd be thinking.

Why the fuck not you political hack of an asshole. What are they going to do with them that you wouldn't do.  Let's start there.  What kind of rotten filth lines your brain-pan so that you think a civilized nation is all about playing G.I. Joe.  Not ours, I mean a real civilized nation.  You have a case of arrested development?  Seems to me you MAGA asshole that your elevator can't even make it up to the second floor.  Not everyone is an adult child like you are.  Grow the fuck up.  Too long have I been tolerant of this ignorant painful and evil stupidity.


And if I we XI I'd throw Trump's ass in a Chinese prison as soon as he arrives.  Not to see the light of day until Maduro is back in Caracas holding a press conference.

[K-Dog]

THEATLANTIC.COM • 2026-05-10

Checkmate in Iran

Washington can’t reverse or control the consequences of losing this war.

Defeat in the present confrontation with Iran will be of an entirely different character. It can neither be repaired nor ignored. There will be no return to the status quo ante, no ultimate American triumph that will undo or overcome the harm done. The Strait of Hormuz will not be "open," as it once was. With control of the strait, Iran emerges as the key player in the region and one of the key players in the world. The roles of China and Russia, as Iran's allies, are strengthened; the role of the United States, substantially diminished.

The consequences of letting a bully of an adult child run the show.  America thought the orange cookie thief would give them a cookie.  That he would share.  But the power obsessed do not share.  So it goes, when putting a sucker on the hook is very easy when you exploit GREED.  Power obsessed people know about greed.  Exploiting greed means you only have to make promises like 'make America great again.'  Having an actual plan to do so is totally unnecessary since America's greed prevents any consideration of consequences.

So Trump thinks:

And since talking shit and having no plan works so well, why not start a war without a plan too.  The suckers will believe anything I tell them.  They have so far.  They always do.

Iran experts have noted, the regime in Tehran currently stands to emerge from the crisis much stronger than it was before the war, having not only retained its potential nuclear capacity but also gained control of an even more effective weapon: the ability to hold the global energy market hostage. When the Iranians talk of "reopening" the strait, they still mean to keep the strait under their control. Iran will be able not only to demand tolls for passage, but to limit transit to those nations with which it has good relations. If a nation behaves in a way that Iran's rulers don't like, they will be able to exact punishment merely by slowing, or even threatening to slow, the flow of that nation's cargo ships in and out of the strait.

To benefit himself Trump has locked America into ineluctable decline.  To some, that defines a traitor.

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And if I we XI I'd throw Trump's ass in a Chinese prison as soon as he arrives.  Not to see the light of day until Maduro is back in Caracas holding a press conference.

It would be great if he was tried in absentia at the Hague for War Crimes and an International Warrant for his arrest put out by Interpol.😀  Then he could be arrested anytime he lands outside the FSoA on Air Force 1.

[K-Dog]

It would be great if he was tried in absentia at the Hague for War Crimes and an International Warrant for his arrest put out by Interpol.😀  Then he could be arrested anytime he lands outside the FSoA on Air Force 1.

An arrest warrant from the Hague.  That makes me think of springtime freshness.

Magically delightful.