[TDoS]

I doubt they will feed him smaller portions of peas and carrots because fuel costs are going up.

WRONG!  Our portion sizes have shrunk by about 25% and we are getting lower quality meats and more meals with no meat at all.  Food inflation has been hitting tthe food budget heere quite hard.

RE

Interesting. Well, you have my condolences. But remind me, along the course of your life, how much did you think about the long term, the kind of investing K-Dog and I have done, the availability of 401k's while teaching and during your working years, was any of that a concern to a primarily single person throughout their life? I know it wasn't a big deal to me when I was single, it was all motorcycles and fun, but then I got older.

Did you buy into doom so hard you didn't prepare at all for non-doom, other than whatever minimum requirements were deducted from your pay during working for the man years? And on a cost basis, was that to your advantage? In other words, you didn't pay in much, and the kind of care you are getting is far beyond what you paid in? Which makes your decision extremely financially advantageous towards cash when you could use and enjoy it in the past, versus now where you really can't because of circumstances.

[TDoS]

AI SAY:A fact is something that is known to be true—an event, condition, or piece of information that can be proven through evidence, observation, or reliable verification.

Tell that to Faux Newz,  MAGA, Climate Change Deniers, Trumpsky and everyone else who claims they have the facts.

Don't stop there. Throw in Doomers since at least Earth Day 1970. And every gang that came out with the internet selling endtimes that never happened. Political crap and biased news aren't the only pimpers of facts that aren't.

With AI and Deep Fakes facts can be quite hard to ascertain.  Seeing is not always believing.
RE

Facts are as stated...but I will grant that AI and social media has screwed things up mightily, as have our individual preferences to only sample from internet sites and social media that we agree with. Very few of us make damn sure to know what our detractors are saying, writing and researching, but it is quite critical.

You don't learn dick from your mindless sychophant friends. You learn best from enemies who are intelligent and degreed and know as much as you do on a topic. Anything less in my world is intellectual masturbation. Why do you think I started hanging out with doomers in the first place? Because however unlikely it might be, they might actually KNOW something of value on occasion. And I would never have learned it if I just interacted with friends or the intellectually similar.

[TDoS]

We must be smart enough not to support their narrative, and to do that we must be able to smell the shit💩.

I completely agree! But this isn't your first realization is it? Didn't you have the same angle with just run of the mill neocons decades ago? How could anyone mistake them for the real deal?

Unless..someone just utilizes whatever evidence they can configure to support a belief? A pre-existing internal  thought/feeling/prediliction, that just drives them to....BELEIVE.

It is the only explanation I have been able to come up with those who, after 2-5-10 busts in collapses and dooms just...can't....stop....finding it. In the morning paper detailing the military adventure of the week, a bad econnomy or stock market, like the 2008 recession in conjunction with claims of resource depletion of topsoil and phosphorous and clean water, etc etc. All configured into doom. When really, they are recessions. Bad times. Just high unemployment. Poor politicak leadership.

But if you get the right mind-bending lens of personal belief involved....all DOOMS!

[TDoS]

How many people woud you estimate ARE this economically ignorant RE?

Most people are ignorant of economic principles, including those who own EVs and have Solar Roofs

Could be. But you know something about economics, and I've been working in an economic environment for 2 decades now. Neither of us are ignorant about it, although perhaps only one of us has done it professionally. And this one knows that solar panels and EV's ROCK, when others are busy whining about liquid fuel costs.

Remember when folks thought the neocons were fascists?

Of course. They were correct, neocons were fascists.
RE

Based on recent reactions here, there are apparently fascists, and FASCISTS from recent reactions to the same type of folks. Some fascists generate NO KINGS protests, others are apparently lightweights and just generate whining.

[TDoS]

The Trump properties and businesses should be taken by congress and given as reparations To Iran.

OUCH!!!!

I remember sitting around a lunch table when the release of the American hostages held by Iran was announced. I was sitting at that table with 2 Iranians. They seemed like okay folks. But back then I would have been happy if Ronny had glassed Tehran just to make a point. Not sure which one, as I was young and reactive (before my  reputation became what it is today), but nuclear weapons being deployed seemed about right for making the point back then.

While I remember that day, and my feelings, they certainly aren't the same as then. I think this self inflicted shit show is just idiot Americans run amuck. However, it is worth wondering if we had indeed glassed Tehran back then, if we would be doing stupid shit nowadays to them?

[K-Dog]

Should be required reading for everyone who voted for the Cretin-in-Chief.

They

believed they could wage and win a war easily just by being "based chads" (i.e., white dudes with retrograde attitudes about literally everything) who would avoid all the weak, woke, DEI-informed mistakes made in previous conflicts by such lily-livered libtards as, um, George W. Bush, Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld.

Trump has taken "ignorance is strength" as far as it can be taken.  Embracing the dark side has taken Trump as far as he can go.  Time for the crash.  This part is priceless:

An Iranian military spokesman taunted Trump last week, rejecting an American 15-point peace plan by asking: "Has the level of your inner struggle reached ‌the ⁠stage of you negotiating with yourself?"

But to do his badness Trump does not negotiate with himself.  That is too much like introspection, and Trumps rejection of all things intellectual won't have any of that.  Success for Trump is reduced to getting what he wants.  You would like to think there is more to Trump, sadly there is not.  There is no thought of others at all except on how their light can reflect on him.  Not a lot of thought of anything except winning, which Trump confuses with making a deal.

The MAGA worldview proudly refuses to engage with history, expresses contempt for all forms of academic or professional expertise and embraces a metaphysical faith in its god-emperor's ability to reshape reality to suit his needs or desires.

In other words, Satan worship.

[TDoS]

ARTBERMAN.COM 2026-03-27

A System Failure is Not an Oil Bull Market

This is not simply higher prices. It is disruption of oil, gas, fertilizers, and critical trade flows. It may produce a short-term bull market in energy, but that strength will persist only until the economic system begins to weaken.

Art has always been good for a laugh. I get all his posts in my inbox, and his use of AI has been a bit...over the top as of late. Anyone who has read his work pre-AI can spot it pretty easily. The guy is as bland boring as any presenter I"ve ever seen, and that is without the factual errors he makes, and gets called out for in public (national conventions no less).

I suppose those unaware of his past work won't know any better, but you two have at least been around the block once. And have met quite a few of those since disgraced in the value of their opinion by actual results. Does quality not matter?

[K-Dog]

Demand destruction and economic fragmentation are the most likely outcomes.  That is the correct framework.

Can the global economy can survive the spike without triggering a cascade of defaults, policy errors, and de-globalization that permanently then lowers the oil price ceiling for years to come.  A market where people could buy oil products if they had money.  Which they do not as it has been all vacuumed to the top.

Your criticism of Berman is accusation without substance.  You have found no fault with his argument.  It appears your dislike of him seems personal.  Are you jealous?  You have not refuted the structural bull market critique, you only offers a reason to ignore the person making it.  But you do it without any bonafides of your own.  Making your criticism worthless.

Engage with the actual argument.  That a wartime spike in a debt-saturated economy will destroy demand before supply can respond.  Or admit you have nothing to add.

[TDoS]

Your criticism of Berman is accusation without substance.  You have found no fault with his argument.

Maybe. But I have found fault with the pofessional mistakes he has made in public, in front of hundreds of people, or just tens, in national conferences.Or however many were on TOD and knew someone selling an amateurs perspective when it was announced.

What is your experience with his professional mistakes and their magnitude, to believe nothing more than his AI generated argument?

As I have mentioned, folks BELIEVE things they want to believe, first and foremost. Why? Because the scientific training and experience to test out a hypothesis is rare. I can name PhDs who lack such an ability.

Art is a history major for starters. And I caught him at a SIPES meeting not knowing that when it comes to the oil and gas industry as well.

In your world K-Dog, someone who claims to know something about electricity and doesn't know the different between voltage and amps, you take their word for wiring a circuit to your satisfaction do you?

[K-Dog]

Your criticism of Berman is accusation without substance.  You have found no fault with his argument.

Maybe. But I have found fault with the pofessional mistakes he has made in public, in front of hundreds of people, or just tens, in national conferences.Or however many were on TOD and knew someone selling an amateurs perspective when it was announced.

What is your experience with his professional mistakes and their magnitude, to believe nothing more than his AI generated argument?

As I have mentioned, folks BELIEVE things they want to believe, first and foremost. Why? Because the scientific training and experience to test out a hypothesis is rare. I can name PhDs who lack such an ability.

Art is a history major for starters. And I caught him at a SIPES meeting not knowing that when it comes to the oil and gas industry as well.

In your world K-Dog, someone who claims to know something about electricity and doesn't know the different between voltage and amps, you take their word for wiring a circuit to your satisfaction do you?

Past mistakes or a history degree don't automatically apply now. If his current argument is 'AI-generated' or logically thin, point to the specific place where it is wrong.  And what do you have against history degrees.

[TDoS]

Past mistakes or a history degree don't automatically apply now. If his current argument is 'AI-generated' or logically thin, point to the specific place where it is wrong.  And what do you have against history degrees.

I agree that past behavior demonstrating a lack of critical thinking, consistent logical misfires and no discernable experience in the field of international anything combined with AI could certainly generate a conclusion some might believe is reasonable. Dr Campbell, Dr Hall, and Dr Bardi demonstrate that even advanced degrees are no defense against sometimes tripping over ones past conclusions, so there is no shame for a history major turned geologist to suffer the same.

I have nothing in particular against history degrees. As I have aged, a knowledge of history has struck me as evver more useful, and even in my field of expertise, occasionally critical. After all, if you don't know the history of a particular field of endeavor, how can you even know where to begin trying to advance an understanding in a particular field?

Can you imagine some almost PhD somewhere discovering e=mc^2 and getting all excited over the discovery, just KNOWING he/she would win a Nobel for it? Such a thing could easily happen except....then you learn some history and its an "aw-shucks" kind of moment.

Apparently though Art didn't learn much about the history of oil, or take to heart much from petroleum geologists either before making his proclamations.

Do you have your own evidence and logical assembly to support his claims (you not having the known history he does of screwing the pooch regularly), or do you just agree with his conclusions? You have your own history of course, but I haven't seen you do the embarassing nonsense and claims I've personally watched him commit.

However, to be honest, in your case there is a definitive history of political belief and action that indicates you are a deep down believers in certain concepts. Not that it interferes with your overall brain function, but lets say it might be accused of occasionally....coloring.....the certainty of your conclusions.

[K-Dog]

Dr Campbell, Dr Hall, and Dr Bardi demonstrate that even advanced degrees are no defense against sometimes tripping over ones past conclusions, so there is no shame for a history major turned geologist to suffer the same.

You are preaching to the choir here, we all know the difference between highly educated and intelligent in the Diner, but that argument still suffers from logical fallacy.

Doctors (Campbell, Hall, Bardi) all having advanced degrees are presumably at the peak of rigorous expertise yet they still trip over past mistakes. Then it is expected and reasonable that a mere historian also trip over mistakes.  So no shame for someone with a different background to experience the same failure as experts.

Do you have your own evidence and logical assembly to support his claims.

I do not agree that it is my responsibility to do so in this argument as the burden to refute or defend :

Engage with the actual argument.  That a wartime spike in a debt-saturated economy will destroy demand before supply can respond.  Or admit you have nothing to add.

Is still on you.  The rest is gossip.

[RE]

Engage with the actual argument.  That a wartime spike in a debt-saturated economy will destroy demand before supply can respond.  Or admit you have nothing to add.

Is still on you.  The rest is gossip.

He can't.  Art is just making the same argument as Krugman & El-Erian.  PK has a Nobel in Economics and M E-E was CEO of fucking PIMCO.  Those guys have unassailable credentials.  TDos merely takes every opportunity he can to bash anyone else in the Peak Oil community with a different spin than his.  He always resorts to Ad Hom attacks to try and undermine their credibility.  At least Art isn't an Anonymous Troll poaching collapse  websites though, regardless of what he majored in at university, so his credibility here is orders of magnitude higher than TDos.  Besides  Art's analysis is the same as PK & M E-E, so it's 3 recognized, non-Anon experts vs 1 annoying Anon Cyber Troll.  I'll side with the 3:1 opinion as an Unrecognized Multi-disciplinary Visionary Genius Autodidact (UMVGA), making it now 4:1. 😁

RE

[TDoS]

Demand destruction and economic fragmentation are the most likely outcomes.  That is the correct framework.

For you. Because as I've mentioned before, some folks start with an angle they like, and when someone like an Art is espousing a similar view, he is easy to agree with, and to defend his view regardless of demonstrable professional hiccups demonstrating a distinct lack of knowledge or prognostication abilities on his part.

"Most likely" is a great hedge. I'll bet you a years salary he couldn't calculate what the fractile of probability is for that statement. But is sounds like it is quite certain to be bad, doesn't it?

Your criticism of Berman is accusation without substance.

My criticism of Art is based on facts, evidence, and his own long discredited OTHER claims, more in line with his masters degree if not his history one. Past bad acts on the part of a felon doesn't mean they commited their most recent crime, but it does factor into the odds of residicisim. History might not repeat itself, but when it comes to people and their habits, it most certainly can rhyme.

If a person demands you accept that 2+2=5 is that accusation without substance?

You have found no fault with his argument.

An argument it is indeed. He uses WORDS. Here are some at the beginning of the article.

"Oil is more likely to peak with the crisis and then follow a weakened global economy into a longer period of softness."

Not sure what peak he is referring to, certainly not the ones he was declaring almost 20 years ago now in World Oil. But a weakened global economy and a period of softness? I can buy that. But notice how it progresses to this.

"In a world constrained by debt, weak growth, and systemic instability, it is unrealistic to assume that capital cycle dynamics from decades past will repeat."

He doesn't prove the world is constrained by debt, he states it as fact. What is "weak" growth? Sure sounds like....GROWTH.....just not.. robust growth. Gee....weak growth before has certainly brought on the Apocalypse. Systemic instability! That one has me quivering in my boots! And all of this is mentioned...why? Because he has a strawman from others to attack, in order to sell what he has been selling for decades...some semblance of Doom!

There is a reason why the rubes love this guy. Have you seen how someone who doesn't know what his masters degree taught him pimps himself? His website is much better than it used to be. You think he makes much coin off pretending to just be the nitwit that declared the world ending and didn't know that the US could produce oil from shale? Nope..he is. ART BERMAN!


"World-renowned consultant? Check. Stellar keynote speaker? Undoubtedly. But above all, he's the energy world's unfiltered voice, seeing past the haze to what truly drives our global system: Energy is the economy."

Stellar keynote speaker! Every time I've heard him do a room he READS HIS SPEECH. He can't do off the cuff for shit, and when he tries, he gets facts wrong! Important ones!

It appears your dislike of him seems personal.  Are you jealous?

It is personal! It isn't as though geologists get much attention, but when they do, does it have to be some nitwit who doesn't know there is oil in US shales as opposed to the next Hubbert? At least Deffeyes had a functioning brain.

Making your criticism worthless.

Of course. Because believers do what they do, and if he was sucking his thumb and picking his nose while giving his talks while mumbling, it doesn't matter as long as they BELIEVE the words. Similar to religion I might add, belief is a tricky thing, and the first person it usually tricks is the person doing it.

I prefer science. If Art wants to collect a crowd that can think, he at least ought to throw the economic charts out there the way S&P and Rystad do. That's where the real money is....doing something right. Flashy websites though, well, the rubes go for that 9 times out of 10. The believers? 10 out of 10.

[K-Dog]

You admitted it's personal, which explains the focus on Berman's speaking style instead of the math.

You claim Berman didn't 'prove' the world is constrained by debt. Global debt is currently sitting at over 315 trillion That is roughly 3.30 times global output. Explain how a system carrying that debt survives a wartime energy spike without demand collapse.  Finding that ratio was not hard.  Perhaps it was your responsibility to find out how much debt there is.

Weak growth is growth lower than the cost of the debt. If the debt grows faster than the economy, the system goes tits up.

Pointing out that Berman was wrong about shale in the past doesn't change the current laws of thermodynamics,  compound interest, or the laws of the universe.

Engage with the actual argument.  That a wartime spike in a debt-saturated economy will destroy demand before supply can respond.  Or admit you have nothing to add.

You have not engaged with the argument.