[RE]

All topics.

RE

[TDoS]

TDoS - You have one warning.  I don't want to hear another peep out of you about peak oil for 1 week.

A challenge!!!

This thread is about an actual ongoing energy crisis, and is not about your whining never ending rant about peak oil definitions.  Which is really just a veiled way of pissing on the Diner.  You could at least find an appropriate topic to post in instead of venting your sociopathic affinity for the dark side here.

I accept the challenge!!

Higher costs aren't an ongoing energy crisis, certainly not for you, me or RE. For poor people, every change in prices is a crisis, inflation causing them to suffer "always" crisis. You and I, spending 20K on heat pumps, us having some nice 4 wheeled hardware (mine doesn't even run on liquid fuels) are doing fine. And our taxes pay for RE to do what he does, I doubt they will feed him smaller portions of peas and carrots because fuel costs are going up.

Approproate topic to post on...okay...how about the varied types of Apocalyptians, those who suffer from a near religious belief in it regardless of facts, logic, science etc etc, and the reasons why?

[TDoS]

Nor are facts always factual.

ha-ha <yawn>

AI SAY:A fact is something that is known to be true—an event, condition, or piece of information that can be proven through evidence, observation, or reliable verification.

I'll stick with the FACTS of a "fact" in this matter.

Your word games aren't near as clever as they used to be. You doing all right? I would love to come visit, but the wife is getting a little antsy about me wandering too far, I got sick twice last year that stuck around and were new experiences. Another trip to Prudhoe with a stop off in Anchorage would be great but I don't think she'd let me.

[K-Dog]

Higher costs aren't an ongoing energy crisis, certainly not for you, me or RE. For poor people, every change in prices is a crisis,

I am not exactly what your point is.  Fact is Americans do not have enough on average to provide long term security for themselves.  Living in a tent at 80 is not where I want to be.  How much does the average American need to make sure that does not happen.  Whatever the number is most Americans don't have it.  Working part time makes that less likely.  It significantly plugs up the drain and tops off the tank.

The average retirement balance for a 65-year-old is roughly $609,000 in America, but the median is only $200,000.  A small percentage of Americans have millions, but the majority of Americans are far from having it made in the shade.  And health care can break an average American at any time.

[RE]

I doubt they will feed him smaller portions of peas and carrots because fuel costs are going up.

WRONG!  Our portion sizes have shrunk by about 25% and we are getting lower quality meats and more meals with no meat at all.  Food inflation has been hitting tthe food budget heere quite hard.

RE

[RE]

AI SAY:A fact is something that is known to be true—an event, condition, or piece of information that can be proven through evidence, observation, or reliable verification.

Tell that to Faux Newz,  MAGA, Climate Change Deniers, Trumpsky and everyone else who claims they have the facts.  With AI and Deep Fakes facts can be quite hard to ascertain.   Seeing is not always believing.

RE

[TDoS]

Higher costs aren't an ongoing energy crisis, certainly not for you, me or RE. For poor people, every change in prices is a crisis,

I am not exactly what your point is.

That an energy crisis, as related to energy costs, are different for those in the situation you, me and RE are in, versus perhaps J6P, or the poor, to whom a $400 unexpected expense, or suddenly their fuel bill doubling, is a crisis.

Fact is Americans do not have enough on average to provide long term security for themselves.

Could be a fact, sounds reasonable, but first you would need to define what "provide long term security for themselves" might mean. If it means, everyone with a solid job deep into life, saving along the way, and enough to cover medical expenses and mortgage/rent/food a car and utilities and whatnot until death, well....that would be nice. Social Security was supposed to help provide these circumstances. I'm betting that many Americans might not be able to provide all of these items until death, let alone pass along a few bucks to the kids.

Living in a tent at 80 is not where I want to be. 

Same here. Good thing you aren't living in a tent then. You planned well. Not all do.

The average retirement balance for a 65-year-old is roughly $609,000 in America, but the median is only $200,000.

I understand skewed distributions very well, and I have no answer for why some people do better, or worse. If it were a matter of simple brain power, RE would have monetized his first website and be dining with Brazos as a consultant as to how to take over the rest of the world right now. It isn't all about brains, sometimes it is, combined with other skills and talent, and sometimes just luck. Timing. I bought some gold back in the early 80's, dumbest investment ever but I was young and stupid and had a car to trade and it looked like the world was ending. Stagflation was a bitch, get gold! Began investing in 401k's back when they became legal. Always contributed. The wife will enjoy any lifestyle she likes when I croak and it has nothing to do with the PMs. 

A small percentage of Americans have millions, but the majority of Americans are far from having it made in the shade.  And health care can break an average American at any time.

Health care can be a bitch. I can carry mine into retirement I beleive, but damned if I know for sure. Medicaid is taking good care of my mom when she is ill.

I'll stick with the Hunter Thompson approach if at all possible.

[TDoS]

I doubt they will feed him smaller portions of peas and carrots because fuel costs are going up.

WRONG!  Our portion sizes have shrunk by about 25% and we are getting lower quality meats and more meals with no meat at all.  Food inflation has been hitting tthe food budget heere quite hard.

RE

Interesting. Well, you have my condolences. But remind me, along the course of your life, how much did you think about the long term, the kind of investing K-Dog and I have done, the availability of 401k's while teaching and during your working years, was any of that a concern to a primarily single person throughout their life? I know it wasn't a big deal to me when I was single, it was all motorcycles and fun, but then I got older.

Did you buy into doom so hard you didn't prepare at all for non-doom, other than whatever minimum requirements were deducted from your pay during working for the man years? And on a cost basis, was that to your advantage? In other words, you didn't pay in much, and the kind of care you are getting is far beyond what you paid in? Which makes your decision extremely financially advantageous towards cash when you could use and enjoy it in the past, versus now where you really can't because of circumstances.

[TDoS]

AI SAY:A fact is something that is known to be true—an event, condition, or piece of information that can be proven through evidence, observation, or reliable verification.

Tell that to Faux Newz,  MAGA, Climate Change Deniers, Trumpsky and everyone else who claims they have the facts.

Don't stop there. Throw in Doomers since at least Earth Day 1970. And every gang that came out with the internet selling endtimes that never happened. Political crap and biased news aren't the only pimpers of facts that aren't.

With AI and Deep Fakes facts can be quite hard to ascertain.  Seeing is not always believing.
RE

Facts are as stated...but I will grant that AI and social media has screwed things up mightily, as have our individual preferences to only sample from internet sites and social media that we agree with. Very few of us make damn sure to know what our detractors are saying, writing and researching, but it is quite critical.

You don't learn dick from your mindless sychophant friends. You learn best from enemies who are intelligent and degreed and know as much as you do on a topic. Anything less in my world is intellectual masturbation. Why do you think I started hanging out with doomers in the first place? Because however unlikely it might be, they might actually KNOW something of value on occasion. And I would never have learned it if I just interacted with friends or the intellectually similar.

[TDoS]

We must be smart enough not to support their narrative, and to do that we must be able to smell the shit💩.

I completely agree! But this isn't your first realization is it? Didn't you have the same angle with just run of the mill neocons decades ago? How could anyone mistake them for the real deal?

Unless..someone just utilizes whatever evidence they can configure to support a belief? A pre-existing internal  thought/feeling/prediliction, that just drives them to....BELEIVE.

It is the only explanation I have been able to come up with those who, after 2-5-10 busts in collapses and dooms just...can't....stop....finding it. In the morning paper detailing the military adventure of the week, a bad econnomy or stock market, like the 2008 recession in conjunction with claims of resource depletion of topsoil and phosphorous and clean water, etc etc. All configured into doom. When really, they are recessions. Bad times. Just high unemployment. Poor politicak leadership.

But if you get the right mind-bending lens of personal belief involved....all DOOMS!

[TDoS]

How many people woud you estimate ARE this economically ignorant RE?

Most people are ignorant of economic principles, including those who own EVs and have Solar Roofs

Could be. But you know something about economics, and I've been working in an economic environment for 2 decades now. Neither of us are ignorant about it, although perhaps only one of us has done it professionally. And this one knows that solar panels and EV's ROCK, when others are busy whining about liquid fuel costs.

Remember when folks thought the neocons were fascists?

Of course. They were correct, neocons were fascists.
RE

Based on recent reactions here, there are apparently fascists, and FASCISTS from recent reactions to the same type of folks. Some fascists generate NO KINGS protests, others are apparently lightweights and just generate whining.

[TDoS]

The Trump properties and businesses should be taken by congress and given as reparations To Iran.

OUCH!!!!

I remember sitting around a lunch table when the release of the American hostages held by Iran was announced. I was sitting at that table with 2 Iranians. They seemed like okay folks. But back then I would have been happy if Ronny had glassed Tehran just to make a point. Not sure which one, as I was young and reactive (before my  reputation became what it is today), but nuclear weapons being deployed seemed about right for making the point back then.

While I remember that day, and my feelings, they certainly aren't the same as then. I think this self inflicted shit show is just idiot Americans run amuck. However, it is worth wondering if we had indeed glassed Tehran back then, if we would be doing stupid shit nowadays to them?

[K-Dog]

Should be required reading for everyone who voted for the Cretin-in-Chief.

They

believed they could wage and win a war easily just by being "based chads" (i.e., white dudes with retrograde attitudes about literally everything) who would avoid all the weak, woke, DEI-informed mistakes made in previous conflicts by such lily-livered libtards as, um, George W. Bush, Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld.

Trump has taken "ignorance is strength" as far as it can be taken.  Embracing the dark side has taken Trump as far as he can go.  Time for the crash.  This part is priceless:

An Iranian military spokesman taunted Trump last week, rejecting an American 15-point peace plan by asking: "Has the level of your inner struggle reached ‌the ⁠stage of you negotiating with yourself?"

But to do his badness Trump does not negotiate with himself.  That is too much like introspection, and Trumps rejection of all things intellectual won't have any of that.  Success for Trump is reduced to getting what he wants.  You would like to think there is more to Trump, sadly there is not.  There is no thought of others at all except on how their light can reflect on him.  Not a lot of thought of anything except winning, which Trump confuses with making a deal.

The MAGA worldview proudly refuses to engage with history, expresses contempt for all forms of academic or professional expertise and embraces a metaphysical faith in its god-emperor's ability to reshape reality to suit his needs or desires.

In other words, Satan worship.

[TDoS]

ARTBERMAN.COM • 2026-03-27

A System Failure is Not an Oil Bull Market

This is not simply higher prices. It is disruption of oil, gas, fertilizers, and critical trade flows. It may produce a short-term bull market in energy, but that strength will persist only until the economic system begins to weaken.

Art has always been good for a laugh. I get all his posts in my inbox, and his use of AI has been a bit...over the top as of late. Anyone who has read his work pre-AI can spot it pretty easily. The guy is as bland boring as any presenter I"ve ever seen, and that is without the factual errors he makes, and gets called out for in public (national conventions no less).

I suppose those unaware of his past work won't know any better, but you two have at least been around the block once. And have met quite a few of those since disgraced in the value of their opinion by actual results. Does quality not matter?

[K-Dog]

Demand destruction and economic fragmentation are the most likely outcomes.  That is the correct framework.

Can the global economy can survive the spike without triggering a cascade of defaults, policy errors, and de-globalization that permanently then lowers the oil price ceiling for years to come.  A market where people could buy oil products if they had money.  Which they do not as it has been all vacuumed to the top.

Your criticism of Berman is accusation without substance.  You have found no fault with his argument.  It appears your dislike of him seems personal.  Are you jealous?  You have not refuted the structural bull market critique, you only offers a reason to ignore the person making it.  But you do it without any bonafides of your own.  Making your criticism worthless.

Engage with the actual argument.  That a wartime spike in a debt-saturated economy will destroy demand before supply can respond.  Or admit you have nothing to add.