[K-Dog]

OILPRICE.COM • 2026-03-30

Is Trump About To Fall Into Iran’s Trap?

Iran is trying to lure the U.S. into a ground war, knowing prolonged involvement could force Washington into a more favorable deal for Tehran. The Houthis’ escalation is meant to trigger U.S. military intervention by endangering global oil flows. Dual chokepoint disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb could cripple up to ~45% of global oil supply, potentially sending prices toward $150–$200+ and pressuring the global economy.

About to?  Well, first he still does have to actually get the Jarheads through the straight before they can even make the attempt to take the island.  Meanwhile, there are hundreds of tankers loaded with Oil floating around in the Gulf.  All the Iranians need to do is sink a couple, then set the oil slick on fire.  This I suspect is what they mean by setting the troops on fire.

RE

I do not agree with his analysis.  Iran does not want to lose Iranians just to get Americans.  As strategy keeping an enemy out of your borders is a good idea.  Iran has defensive weapons to keep the invasion from happening.  Missiles and drones.  They will use them before they kill their young men.  Iran cares about life more than whoever wrote this article does.  The author has a western warbucks attitude.

Taking out the desalination plants would be effective.  The US would be sidelined by supplying water for millions of people.  That would end the invasion plan.  Our psychopaths in charge will not want to do it, but it is their ass if they do not.

[RE]

Taking out the desalination plants would be effective.  The US would be sidelined by supplying water for millions of people.  That would end the invasion plan.  Our psychopaths in charge will not want to do it, but it is their ass if they do not.[/color]

Targeting desalinization plants is a war crime, besides which if they hit the Iranian ones, the Iranians will hit the Saudi, Omani, Kuwaiti & UAE ones.  No oil at all would flow since all the oil workers would be dying of thirst after about a week.

RE

[K-Dog]

It would not be a war crime if Iran were ready to meet basic thirst requirements.  Iran takes out the desalination plants and then informs the Americans they have to leave immediately as their presence prevents Iran from meeting the basic thirst requirements of the Gulf states. 

Which Iran then shows the world they are ready to do.  Then the US has to counter by supplying water for millions itself, and that sidelines the invasion.  Trucking water for thirst would only be a few million gallons a day.  It would be a logistical nightmare for the US.  But not so much for Iran. 

Taking out a desalination plant would not be a war crime if you stand ready to provide water for basic needs.

[RE]

If all the desal plants are bombed, where do they get the water from?  Fly it in from Russia?  Millions of bottles of water?  Daily? I don't think so.  Not a good plan.

RE

[K-Dog]

If all the desal plants are bombed, where do they get the water from?  Fly it in from Russia?  Millions of bottles of water?  Daily? I don't think so.  Not a good plan.

RE

I don't agree,  It can be trucked in from someplace up north, and I think the Iranians agreed with me about two hours ago.

ALJAZEERA.COM • 2026-03-30

Iranian attack damages Kuwait power and desalination plant, kills worker

Kuwaiti authorities say Indian worker killed in attack that also caused ‘significant material damage’ to building.

[K-Dog]

ACAPMAG.COM.AU • 2026-03-31

Australians may not see cheaper fuel for weeks despite Labor’s excise cuts

Australians expecting relief from punishing fuel prices in time for Easter travel are set to be disappointed, with the industry predicting the effects of Labor temporarily halving the excise will take days or weeks to reach some bowsers around the country.

"bowser" is Australian English for a fuel pump at a gas station (what Americans usually call a gas pump).

<--  You know, this place.  Back in the day being in the southern hemisphere might have bought some time.  As things are now, down under is among the first places to say :

[RE]

PAULKRUGMAN.SUBSTACK.COM • 2026-03-31

The Oil Crisis is About to Get Physical

The price elasticity of demand for crude oil is low meaning even large price increases only cause small declines in demand. What are the possibilities? Three scenarios for the disruption to oil supply are considered.  A “low disruption” scenario where supply is reduced by 8 percent , a medium scenario in which supply falls by 12 percent, and a high disruption scenario in which it falls by 16 percent.

RE

[K-Dog]

I edit the descriptions if they are long.  A visual appeal thing.  More description can be added in the Diner to keep length shorter.  The idea is to follow the Trackack and read the article for discussion and info.  Which at least you and I are doing.

Good article, Krugman has had a large presence on YouTube in the last few weeks.  I think Krugman feels the same way I do about Trump, but as a public figure he has to keep his feeling more on the downlow.

He chose an interesting video to pair with his article.  Krugman wants to scream to the winds about how much Trump has fucked America.  Trump's next bad move will bake $200 oil in the cake.

ARTBERMAN.COM • 2026-03-27

A System Failure is Not an Oil Bull Market

This is not simply higher prices. It is disruption of oil, gas, fertilizers, and critical trade flows. It may produce a short-term bull market in energy, but that strength will persist only until the economic system begins to weaken.

Demand destruction and economic fragmentation are the most likely outcomes. That is the core flaw in the structural bull market thesis. In a world constrained by debt, weak growth, and systemic instability, it is unrealistic to assume that capital cycle dynamics from decades past will repeat.

So in summary, after we get high gas prices they will come back down, but nobody will have a job.

[TDoS]

ARTBERMAN.COM • 2026-03-27

A System Failure is Not an Oil Bull Market

This is not simply higher prices. It is disruption of oil, gas, fertilizers, and critical trade flows. It may produce a short-term bull market in energy, but that strength will persist only until the economic system begins to weaken.

Art has always been good for a laugh. I get all his posts in my inbox, and his use of AI has been a bit...over the top as of late. Anyone who has read his work pre-AI can spot it pretty easily. The guy is as bland boring as any presenter I"ve ever seen, and that is without the factual errors he makes, and gets called out for in public (national conventions no less).

I suppose those unaware of his past work won't know any better, but you two have at least been around the block once. And have met quite a few of those since disgraced in the value of their opinion by actual results. Does quality not matter?

[K-Dog]

Demand destruction and economic fragmentation are the most likely outcomes.  That is the correct framework.

Can the global economy can survive the spike without triggering a cascade of defaults, policy errors, and de-globalization that permanently then lowers the oil price ceiling for years to come.  A market where people could buy oil products if they had money.  Which they do not as it has been all vacuumed to the top.

Your criticism of Berman is accusation without substance.  You have found no fault with his argument.  It appears your dislike of him seems personal.  Are you jealous?  You have not refuted the structural bull market critique, you only offers a reason to ignore the person making it.  But you do it without any bonafides of your own.  Making your criticism worthless.

Engage with the actual argument.  That a wartime spike in a debt-saturated economy will destroy demand before supply can respond.  Or admit you have nothing to add.