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Peak Oil

Started by K-Dog, Jul 31, 2023, 09:11 PM

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Quote from: K-Dog on Sep 17, 2025, 11:54 AMAmerica depends on cheap transportation, and electric vehicles are not cheap.
My brand new 2025 EV cost 58% of your heat pump. Neither was cheap....but when new vehicles cost less than HEAT PUMPS by that much? Folks don't get to pretend they are unaffordable. Of course, high net worth individuals such as you and I have different perspectives of what is "not cheap" ...or not....compared to those lacking our financial advantage.

Quote from: K-DogIf America's car fleet goes fully electric we need 30% more electricity.  Can we do that and have A.I..  I do not think so.  Drill baby drill won't do it, and even if it could; oh yeah, there is that climate thing.  Increased electrification is showing to be a problem.
Just throw all of this, and oversumption of everything else by gluttonous Americans into one big pile and I agree with you.

Good thing Americans haven't forgotten to build nukes I guess, and SOMEONE sooner or later is going to get the fusion thing going.

Do you know that Catton listed things humans were able to do, to change their fortunes in the past in his book "Overshoot"? In that book, relatively early he has a chart, listing the things humans have done along the way to be more than clever monkeys.

I've got a digital copy, I recommend folks who don't have one get one, and check it out. And then we can discuss what will stop humans from adding another evolution of technological change to that list. Or maybe even two?


Quote from: K-DogIf all you do is look at Hubbert's Peak and debate if and when peak oil happens you really do not understand the situation.

I am a technical expert first, so of course being able to solve peak oil was step one. If only to insert that modeling effort into those of others. So that together we both will then understand the situation, it is called collaboration among scientists with common interests and different specialties. We are better together than alone.

So of course I pay attention to the situation, not just my part of it, but theirs as well.

Do you have any idea how much money the Sloan Foundation dishes out to these kinds of multi-disiplianry efforts to answer qustions? A bunch. Ever seen resilience.org talk about the size of their project with them? And if not, why do you think not?

Quote from: K-DogReality does not match the pretty textbook graph, but the takeaway is there is an actual peak.
Yes. Indeed. So does everyone else who can check the EIA International Energy statistics for global oil production and discover....lookee there! 2018 global peak oil.

Any thoughts on why it has gone so unnoticed for so long? If indeed it is more important than some of the others in the past?




K-Dog

#31

PEAKOIL.COM2026-03-13

Trumps Inexcusable Unpreparedness for the Iranian Oil Crisis

Donald Trump, having plunged the country into a potentially disastrous war, with no clear rationale or exit plan, is flailing around for ways to mitigate its economic consequences.



CHRISHEDGES.SUBSTACK.COM2026-03-16

How the War With Iran Will Trigger a Global Financial Crisis

Yanis Varoufakis says that even if the war in Iran ends soon, which it likely will not , the economic consequences will be devastating and prolonged.


'You won't have to go to Bangladesh to see who suffers."

This Trump will not get out of.  Teflon Trump has done himself in.  Trump in a single heartbeat has enraged the rest of the world.  The cost of being an American is about to double and it was not all that cheap to begin with.  Both domestically and internationally Trump has cooked his own goose.



Trump has always admired Mussolini.  Benito Mussolini and his mistress, Claretta Petacci, were executed by Italian partisans on April 28 in the village of Giulino di Mezzegra.  Their bodies were loaded into a van and driven to Milan, arriving in the early hours of the next morning.  The bodies were dumped in the square where the Nazis had executed 15 partisans a year prior. A massive, angry crowd gathered.  The bodies were kicked, beaten, spat upon, and shot multiple times.  To stop the crowd from completely obliterating the remains and to ensure everyone could see that the Dictator was truly dead, the bodies were hoisted upside down from the girder of a Standard Oil gas station. 

History will repeat.
 

RE

Quote from: K-Dog on Mar 17, 2026, 11:33 AMYanis Varoufakis says that even if the war in Iran ends soon, which it likely will not , the economic consequences will be devastating and prolonged.

Yanis is BACK! lol.  I wonder if we'll hear from Dr. Doom Nouriel Roubini also?

The possibility of Israel going NUKE is definitely  scary.  Actually, I could see Trumpolini himself ordering a Nuke strike.

Far as the economic consequences go, I think it will take until May for that to really kick in here.  It's not gonna get better quick though even if the bombing stops 2moro.

RE

K-Dog

#33
Yanis has never been gone.  On youtube he is a feature.  If Trumpolini orders a nuke strike I hope one of the Marines standing next to him wearing the white gloves grows a brain.

QuoteWhat happens to capitalism when it can't deal with it with a crisis of its own making when the capitalist class lose control.  They pull levers and they don't work anymore, like hapless pilots in  the cockpit.  Suddenly the levers don't respond to their pulling and pushing.  Fascism is the go-to ideology and the go-to, practices which allow them to remain in power. The fascists have always been particularly useful to the ruling class. Every time the ruling class made a mess of it, and could not contain the crisis of its own making.

What you saw in Minneapolis, the murder of uh American citizens, what you saw with ICE, uh turning into the stormtroopers of Donald Trump from the day he moved into the White House for the second time.

That was happening while he was winning.  So imagine what was going to happen when he was losing.

RE


PBS.ORG2026-03-18

Iran war pushes Asian nations into energy triage as they conserve power

BANGKOK (AP) — The escalating war with Iran is pushing parts of the world into energy triage, forcing governments to choose where to cut demand or absorb costs, while prioritizing dwindling supplies.  Asia is the most exposed since it relies heavily on imported fuel, much of it shipped through the now-blocked Strait of Hormuz. The narrow passage offshore from Iran is the main route for shipping a fifth of global trade in crude oil and liquified natural gas.  Governments in the region are scrambling to adjust — tallying oil reserves, conserving energy, competing for supplies and trying to blunt prices. That brings difficult trade-offs: saving power may slow business activity. Prioritizing cooking gas for households can hurt restaurants and other businesses.



IMAGEIO.FORBES.COM2026-03-18

The Countries Most In Danger Of Running Out Of Oil

Before the war, 40 tankers carrying 20 million barrels of crude oil and refined petroleum products traversed the Strait of Hormuz every day. This week Iran has allowed just a handful of tankers to slip through Hormuz, including ships flagged to India and China. Amid oil rationing and shortages, which countries are most in danger of winning the race to empty?


Looks like the real Peak Oil fun is getting underway for all the oil importing countries.  Oil exporters have a bit of an advantage here, but of course everything is so interconnected the problems won't be limited to the importers.  We're on the way back to the Stone Age!

RE