[RE]

THEBULWARK.COM • 2026-03-19

The Worst-Case Economic Outcome of Trump’s Iran War

The risk of falling into a doom loop like this was apparent the moment the Strait of Hormuz was effectively shut down, and oil prices shot up. But many hoped the strait might quickly reopen and the shock would be short-lived.  That hasn’t happened. And there’s now no way we can return to the antebellum status quo quickly—or perhaps ever.  That’s because, in a significant escalation, both sides in the conflict have now started targeting energy infrastructure. On Wednesday, Israel bombed Iran’s South Pars gas field, the largest natural gas field in the world and a major lifeline for Iran.3 Subsequently, Iran attacked the world’s largest LNG facility (located in Qatar, whose LNG exports will as a result be down by almost a fifth for up to five years) and it has targeted a host of other natural resources, refineries, and other processing facilities in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Israel. (The AP put together this useful map of major energy infrastructure sites that have been hit so far.)  Destroying fuel-producing infrastructure is fundamentally different from temporarily blocking a fuel transit passageway. When infrastructure is gone, it’s gone. It could take years to rebuild.

Not sure this article describes the "Worst Case Scenario", more like just an easily predictable bad one.  Escalation to Global Thermonuclear War is certainly a possibility, and that would definitely be worse.  A 5 year recession would be bad for sure, but a decade long Global Depression would be worse.  Higher food prices would be bad, but a Global Famine with half the worlld population dying of starvation would be just a little worse, don't ya think?

Are any of these LIKELY outcomes right now?  No, but the chances have definittly risen from minute to significant and are worth considering as worst case scenarios.

At this point, I can't see ANY way "normal" pre-war shipping will return inside the next year, and quite possibly never.  That will significantly reduce the flow of oil from the gulf and keep the prices high until the demand crashes, which it must once the consumers are fully tapped out.  Oil production facilities that manage to survive undamaged will have to be shut in.

Somewhere along the timeline there will be a credit crisis as bankruptcies pile up, followed by bank failures.  This kind of thing is bad enough when it is just resultant from malinvestment in one sector like real estate, or a confined area like southern Europe, but when it's global and across all sectors it's a pretty hopeless situation.  Maybe the Smartest Guys in the Room can find a Magic Bazooka, but it will surprise me if they do.

At most, I think we're 6 months away from a financial crisis that will make 2008 pale in comparison.  I could be wrong of course, wouldn't be the first time.  Not looking good though.

RE

[K-Dog]

ZEENEWS.INDIA.COM • 2026-03-20

Iran downs US F-35: First combat hit on most advanced 'Invisible' stealth jet mid-air

This marks the first time Iran has struck a US aircraft in the late February war. Both the US and Israel deploy F-35s in the conflict; each jet costs over $100 million.

Had the plane actually landed the incident would never have made the news.  At all.  The plane crashed, and the Department of War made truth it's first casualty.  As evidenced by unrealistic casualty reports.

[K-Dog]

TWZ.COM • 2026-03-20

USS Boxer The Second Amphibious Assault Ship Now Heading To Middle East (Updated)

With two Amphibious Ready Groups heading to the Middle East, there is increasing speculation that the U.S. will try to seize Iran's strategic Kharg Island.

Where the 'sunk cost' argument becomes literally true.  5,000 Marines can seize a specific objective, like Kharg Island (approx. 8 sq. miles).  But they will not "hold the door open" across the straight. They will be a landing party that becomes a stationary target once they hit the beach. Marines able to watch retaliatory missiles going into Ras Tanura as they wish upon a star.

On Truth Social today (March 20, 2026), Trump claimed the U.S. is "very close to meeting objectives", and that operation Epstein Fury is nearing completion.  Simultaneously, the Pentagon has accelerated the deployment of the 11th MEU (USS Boxer) to join the 31st MEU (USS Tripoli).  Lies lies and more lies is what Trump delivers.

[TDoS]

Had the plane actually landed the incident would never have made the news.  At all.  The plane crashed, and the Department of War made truth it's first casualty.  As evidenced by unrealistic casualty reports.

SO...CNN lies like..say...folks all over the internet? Or we don't believe CNN because the report comes from an official source?

https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/19/politics/f-35-damage-iran-war

Capt. Tim Hawkins, a spokesperson for US Central Command, said the fifth-generation stealth jet was "flying a combat mission over Iran" when it was forced to make an emergency landing. Hawkins said the aircraft landed safely and the incident is under investigation.

"The aircraft landed safely, and the pilot is in stable condition," Hawkins added. "This incident is under investigation."

You figure in a week or two after the initial shock of a single aircraft being hit by Iranian fire....folks won't notice when they reverse themselves?

[K-Dog]

Official source?

Get real, if the trim on one of those flying bricks isn't perfect they are going down.  But no, there are no 'official sources' that can be respected.  All official sources are now kissing Trump ass.  Or have you not been paying attention.  In today's world mainstream media pays to play, and they all stay in line. 

And seriously, a 12 year old can figure out that you are not going to talk about damage to a plane if you do not have to in a time of war.  In particular nothing is going to be said by this administration which is everything but transparent if they do not have to say anything, and it they do have to talk they will lie.  If the plane landed there was nothing to admit.  No reason to say a damn word.  Probably treasonous to do so if you are wearing a U.S. uniform anyway. 

So back to school with you if you think it landed.  And in a week or two there won't be any reason to 'reverse themselves'.  The lie becomes real. 

Trump is not going to be able to spin this clusterfuck into a triumphant win unless he lies.  Trump's ass depends on convincing your ass that this senseless mayhem is justified.  And because it is not justified by any law of man or god, the only way is to turn his rampant aggression into a glorious unprecedented win.  To make his shit smell like 4th of July bar-b-q to a starving man.

PARSTODAY.IR • 2026-03-20

Qalibaf: F-35 trike was a moment new order collapsed

The F-35 was not just a fighter jet, but a statue of the US military's invincibility and arrogance. A theological symbol that was claimed to be unseen by any eye and superior to all powers; but 'Yadollah fawqa aydihim' (The Hand of God is above their hands)."

As this war spirals out of control never has Trump had more reason to lie.  And as Trump is incapable of telling the Truth, you do not need a brain or a weatherman to see which way the wind blows.  Unless you have a penchant for tripping over the obvious.


"It became necessary to destroy the town to save it," a United States major said today.

The most acute oxymoron of humanitarian bombardment lies rather in the superimposition that is manifested in it between the declared intention to defend life and to produce actual death.

[K-Dog]

NDTV.COM • 2026-03-21

War Expands To New Theatre? Iran Fires Missiles At Indian Ocean US-UK Base

The base sits roughly 4,000 km from Iranian territory, a range that would represent a substantial leap beyond what Tehran was previously believed capable of. It means Iran will be able to target bases in Europe.

[K-Dog]

ALJAZEERA.COM • 2026-03-20

Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei says enemy ‘defeated’ in message

Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has released a message for the Persian New Year saying that Iran’s unity had defeated the enemy.

NEWARAB.COM • 2026-03-20

Iran's Khamenei says enemy 'defeated' in defiant message

He described the current war against Israel and the United States as the third war that the Islamic republic has experienced over the last 12 months.

RUDAW.NET • 2026-03-20

Iran's new supreme leader says enemy 'defeated' in Newroz message

Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, declared on Friday that the Islamic republic is prevailing over its adversaries, claiming it has delivered a “dizzying blow” in the ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel.

When this is all over Americans will not get what they deserve.  Iranians are too civilized for that.

PARSTODAY.IR • 2026-03-20

New York Mayor: I oppose US-Israeli military invasion against Iran

"Happy Nowruz to all Iranian-Americans who consider New York City their home! The first Muslim mayor of New York added: 'Nowruz is usually a time full of good feelings, but this year is different. I remain opposed to the military invasion of the US and Israel, and I wish many happy moments for all Iranians who cherish this special holiday.'"

Nowruz, what is it?

THECONVERSATION.COM • 2026-03-19

What is Nowruz, the Iranian new year?

Share article  Print article  Nowruz (meaning “new day” in the Persian language) is the Iranian, or Persian, festival celebrating the coming of spring – and the regeneration it brings. It is the first day of the year in the Iranian solar calendar (which began in 1079), marking the exact moment of the spring equinox.

NILEPOST.CO.UG • 2026-03-20

Iran’s Khamenei says enemy ‘defeated’ in written Nowruz message

In a statement read on Iranian television on Friday, Khamenei praised the steadfastness of the Iranian people marking Nowruz, which he said ushered in ‌the year of a “resistance economy under national unity and national security”.

[RE]

NEWSTATESMAN.COM • 2026-03-21

The world energy shock is coming

The US and Israel’s illegal attack on Iran will provoke a global economic catastrophe.  The US and Israel’s illegal attack on Iran will provoke a global economic catastrophe

We should be in the deep doo doo by the elections.  This will not end well.

RE

[K-Dog]

NEWSTATESMAN.COM • 2026-03-21

The world energy shock is coming

The US and Israel’s illegal attack on Iran will provoke a global economic catastrophe.  The US and Israel’s illegal attack on Iran will provoke a global economic catastrophe

We should be in the deep doo doo by the elections.  This will not end well.

RE

Fossil fuels are by far the most systemically significant inputs in (as yet) predominantly fossil fuel-powered capitalism. Food production depends on fertilisers. Helium and sulphur are necessary for microchips production, in turn needed for everything from lawn mowers to data centres sustaining the AI boom. The passage through the strait of these raw materials – key for making everything else – has been effectively suspended since the beginning of the war.

A very good read 😀

[TDoS]

NEWSTATESMAN.COM • 2026-03-21

The world energy shock is coming

The US and Israel’s illegal attack on Iran will provoke a global economic catastrophe.  The US and Israel’s illegal attack on Iran will provoke a global economic catastrophe

We should be in the deep doo doo by the elections.  This will not end well.

RE

How many of your "this will not end well" have not even arrived? Do you keep a running score to track your prognostication capabilities?

[TDoS]

Official source?

Get real, if the trim on one of those flying bricks isn't perfect they are going down.  But no, there are no 'official sources' that can be respected.  All official sources are now kissing Trump ass.  Or have you not been paying attention.  In today's world mainstream media pays to play, and they all stay in line.

Oh come on. You tried this same logic when BigBalls got beaten up in Wahsington, and when I calculated out the odds of the cameras catching it, or not, it turned out that spurious wasn't coming from the online sources in this case but from your argument of everything could be seen everywhere in DC.

And seriously, a 12 year old can figure out that you are not going to talk about damage to a plane if you do not have to in a time of war.

You mean, except for this plane in question, and the tanker that went down while refueling others? Everyone talking about both of these is the proof that neither happened?

A 12 year old isn't even SMART enough to play this level of make believe, who are you going to trust, me making it up or someone willing to admit it because they know it happened?

[RE]

Do you keep a running score to track your prognostication capabilities?

66.6% success rate.

RE

[TDoS]

Do you keep a running score to track your prognostication capabilities?

66.6% success rate.

RE

On which topics? Peak oil, collapse, getting rich monetizing your websites and most recently the 3D printing stuff?

[RE]

All topics.

RE