[K-Dog]

Ninety percent of people consider the I.E.A. International Energy Agency a reliable source.  It is a Paris-based autonomous intergovernmental organization that provides policy recommendations, analysis, and data on the global energy sector.

Main stream respectable.  People involved pass for civilized.

Member countries provide the funding.  I do not think the data can be trusted.  No country is going to tell the truth about their energy reserves.  Since they control the money they never will.  This makes the agency a data laundry.

On page 299 of the report there are 235 billion barrels of conventional oil claimed for North America. But Prudhoe Bay only yielded 13 billion barrels of conventional oil.  Something stinks.  But the current American export rate could not be justified with the truth known so it makes sense.  This highly respectable autonomous agency can't be trusted.

Thoughts ?

[K-Dog]

People need to believe in the oil market, which in turn requires assuming it will last til they and preferably the next couple generations are dead.

Or at least everyone has to believe the can can get kicked down the road for a while.  Enough time for green tech and space aliens to rescue humanity and change the game.  Roll the dice one more time.


NO, an agency that curates truth for and funded by governments will give a truth that is half snake oil, but with the credentials of hard science to bounce the can one more time.

This is where most men of my demographic make themselves irrelevant.  Ultimately their fame and fortune depends on the system.  Their esteem and identity comes from the system.  The system made them what they are, yet they imagine themselves unique.  That is a contradiction that sanity must ignore. Consequently an ability for such made men to look within, at themselves.  Is not easy to cultivate.  As it is said in 'A few good men' - They can't handle the truth.


They can't give up faith in the system.  The system has given them special papers which say they know stuff and are special.  Somehow they get money.  They are threads in the fabric who imagine a system integrity that was never there.  They will hear no talk about how sausage is really made and what the ingredients are.  New truth must be documented in books before it can become real to such men.  They must continue to be deceived.

They cannot howl on the wild side.

What is the point. -- Only that the truth of our predicament will not have a day in the sun anytime soon.

[RE]

What is the point. -- Only that the truth of our predicament will not have a day in the sun anytime soon.

Well, we can still stay out of the sunlight and sleep during the day in coffins like Vampires. 

We are the Undead, Doomer Vampires sucking blood out of the neck of Capitalism.



RE

[RE]

He doesn't count natural gas and light-tight shale and thinks they aren't as 'useful' as diesel. Which is highly debatable. Not my field so idk.

Well, when his latest suspension finishes, I'm sure MKing(Tddos) will drop in his expert opinion on these calculations.  If he can manage to do it without insulting us or violating one of the other conditions of his participation on this forum, I might even leave it up.

RE

[K-Dog]

He doesn't count natural gas and light-tight shale and thinks they aren't as 'useful' as diesel. Which is highly debatable. Not my field so idk.

Well, when his latest suspension finishes, I'm sure MKing(Tddos) will drop in his expert opinion on these calculations.  If he can manage to do it without insulting us or violating one of the other conditions of his participation on this forum, I might even leave it up.

RE

Yes, he hosed himself good.  Got his foot real wet. 

After his juvenile insults got his ass banned, half a dozen things he would like to deny were posted.

[K-Dog]

These guys make for an interesting conversation.

More than sea level will rise.


Short term thinking increases.  People with money seem to be getting richer.  The divide grows.  The world does not change its ways.

For the second month in a row the CO2 concentration increase exceeds 1% for the year.  And the devil isn't doing it.  Rich people are.

[RE]

These guys make for an interesting conversation.

2 hours?  Can you give us a brief synopsis of this marathon talk fest?  Maybe give us the time on a coupe of highlights?  Last time I listened to Simon I was not impressed.

RE

[K-Dog]

A brief synopsis:

I am an hour and twelve minutes in now.  Simon went through a divorce ten years ago and his wife character assassinated him.  She messed up an intentional community he was involved in or something.  Did more than the sea level rise perhaps?  We do not have to know.

Talk of sea level rise, iron powder and other magic bullets that would take more organization than short term thinking will or can do.  The panel has the good sense to know as the future unwinds, the cost of doing everything is going red queen.  Despite a few burps of technonarcissism the panels digestion of reality is reasonable. 

The faster you run, the more you stay in the same place.  A lot of talk about making Hawaii into a food forest and thorium reactors to make the big island into a self-sufficient micro civilization able to reproduce enough modern technology on a sustainable basis to stay modern.  Simon pointed out while that is a great plan, nothing in Hawaii is organized to make this happen.

A mix of sanity and wild-assed dreaming.



Fun facts, if Britain had half the population and used 1/8 the energy they now do the Island would be sustainable.  Like Sandy said in the comments.  She learns something new every time.

[RE]

A lot of talk about making Hawaii into a food forest and thorium reactors to make the big island into a self-sufficient micro civilization able to reproduce enough modern technology on a sustainable basis to stay modern.  Simon pointed out while that is a great plan, nothing in Hawaii is organized to make this happen.

Forget the organization, Hawaii is far too overpopulated for it's available resources for growing food or water to drink.  Before you even think about reorganizing and making it a sustainable food forest, either 90% of the population has to emmigrate off the Island or die off.  Also helpful would be sea level to stop rising and rainfall to return to preindustrial levels.  Then you also need to wait for the chemicals to rinse out of the aquifer.

This idea ranks right up there with micro-nukes solving our energy deficit problems.  Simon and his crew are hopium addicts.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hawaii-water-crisis-climate-change/

Hawaii is "on the verge of catastrophe," locals say, as water crisis continues

RE

[K-Dog]

Simon and his crew are hopium addicts.

I can't agree.  Hopium addicts are out of touch with reality.  Simon and his crew are not.  They do calculations and figure this or that out, and at the end of the day they are saying.  Oh fuck, we are fucked!  Just like I do.  Just like you do.

Who was it that was in here extolling the virtues of flow batteries a few weeks ago?  Who was that hopeasaurus?

If you have criticism worth sharing we could get in touch with Simon and make a video.  But if you are just bitching I'll ask why.  We are all on the same team here.  If Simon and I got to talking things could get interesting.  We are both engineers.

Concerning hopium.  Simon I and others can figure out how to make things work.  Collapse could be designed with a reasonably soft landing engineered in.  But that won't happen.  The problem is people.

People were going off  the 'deep end' concerning peak oil twenty years before climate change came along.  Global heating was a back story on NPR when you and I were preaching doom and gloom.

Did we wake anybody up with our rantings?  Only people who wanted to rant with us for whatever reason. People who benefit greatly from current arrangements have their own tribe.  We are their enemy.  They being the dominant tribe construct the narrative that keeps everyone else in thrall.  It was a knee-jerk thoughtless reaction for them to recognize that we are not part of their narrative.  This is something I did not understand starting out.  I thought people could be convinced by logic and reason.  I did not understand that cultural conditioning will defeat logic, and self-interest makes people stupid.

Simon and his crew don't get that the elite have had a few hundred years to develop an elite culture that seamlessly excludes everyone else.  With an appearance of not doing so.  That is the big problem.  Bigger than the technical issues.  Western culture is fine with some people getting some, and some people getting none. 

A system that refines exploitation is not intellectually able to deal with a new world where limits make the consequences of exploitation a necessary part of the calculation.  That the system can't deal with externalities and humans are unable to see externalities is bad enough.  What makes things horrible is consideration of externalities cuts profit.  Dealing with consequences means there is less to skim on the top.  Capitalism lives off the skim.  (theft)

The lifestyle of many Americans depends upon profits.  In a world of change profits generally suffer. 

It is easy to see the problems as technical, and the natural human urge is to solve problems.  But collapse is a social problem first, and a technical problem second.  Society controls what technology is used and how it is used.  Simon, I and any other smarty pants who come up with a technical solutions are only pawns in a game.  We are ignored unless we are useful for other reason.

It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.  A rentier has a salary that depends on him not understand the details of where the profit he/she exploits comes from.  If you have a passive income you are going to tolerate injustice.  Your understandings will be by your own choice limited in scope.

Capitalism depends on maximizing exploitation.  The salary of everyone who has any power in America comes from the exploitation of someone else.  The American system is engineered to keep anyone who does actual real work powerless.

Cultural hegemony keeps things going full speed to oblivion.  Everyone is united in their stupidity.  Nurds make You-Tube Videos that get 2K views if they are good.  They imagine they make a difference.  Videos that support existing arrangements dominate with millions of views.

Things could not be more fucked up now if Satan himself were pulling the strings.

It is foolish to be convinced without evidence, but it is equally foolish to refuse to be convinced by real evidence.  The real evidence says that for the second month in a row CO2 is up over 1% for the year.  Sorry to tell you this Greta, but your generation does not hold any power, and for all your rantings you are ignored with CO2 emissions higher than they have ever been.  The dependence on the finite resource has never been higher.

I am the only one who looks at what the annual change in CO2 is every month.  It is published on the main page.  The calculation accounts for seasonal variation.  In a nation of hundreds of millions I am the only one who does this.  At a website actively repressed by the deep state.

The future of humanity is in peril, but a nation committed to quarterly profit can not see another way.

The four horsemen wait to ride.  The horses chomp on the bit.

[RE]

If you have criticism worth sharing we could get in touch with Simon and make a video.

I told you last time after watching the video about the micro nukes I would be happy to do a talking heads show with Simon.  Nobody ever contacted me after that.

As far as it not being hopium with the food forests in Hawaii, after reading the article about the problems with the aquifer, rising sea level and diminishing rainfall, not to mention the outrageous population density (they have the population of Alaska on a Postage Stamp in the middle of the Pacific), HTF is that the least bit realistic?

RE

[RE]

Looks like we have a new SHTF Date to wait for: 2031.     Not quite 2 decades after the feared Mayan prognosticaltion of 12/21/2012 for TEOTWAWKI.  This is when this article predicts North Sea oil to be net energy negative.  It predicts also that globally all oil will be net energy negative by the end of the 2030s.

However, why this is not quite as bad as it sound comes early in the article with the current state of Alaska oil: "Alaska's oil production became net-energy negative in 2021."  If it's negative, why pump it?

Because the energy to pump it up comes from NG, which is extracted along with oil and can't be sold itself because there's no NG pipeline or LNG production facility to get the NG from the slope to markets where it might be burned directly to produce electricity.  So it's essentially free energy to use for pumping up the oil remaining there.  In fact there's so much extra NG they have to flare it off because they have nowhere to store it either.

Similarly, a deep sea oil extraction platform could get power to pump up oil from the depths of the ocean utilizing a Wind Turbine at the surface to power the rig.  No way to get the electricity itself to shore, but you can use it right there to pump up the oil.  Essentially free energy also except for the cost of the turbine.

So this really doesn't tell us when the lights will go out here in the FSoA, just that things are going to get a lot dicier moving forward.  We already knew that though.

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2024-04-15/the-oil-crash-is-coming-sooner-than-we-think/

RE

[RE]

Which according to the Chevron CEO, is not anytime too soon.  Chevron will still be pumping up the black gold for the stockholders in 2040.  He does not buy the Hydrogen Hype.

By preparing for this "volatility" with a balance sheet that can withstand an extended period of "very low prices," Chevron's CEO noted that the company predicts it will deliver 10% compound annual growth in free cash flow over the next several years.

"Driven by the Permian, driven by some other shale assets in our portfolio, projects in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico," Wirth pointed out, "we've got a number of other assets that are delivering growth. And the combination with Hess only strengthens our cash flow longer into the future, not only to the end of this decade, but well into the next."

https://www.foxbusiness.com/energy/chevron-ceo-reveals-us-will-see-end-oil-age

Chevron CEO reveals when US will see the 'end of the oil age'

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[K-Dog]

Which according to the Chevron CEO, is not anytime too soon.  Chevron will still be pumping up the black gold for the stockholders in 2040.  He does not buy the Hydrogen Hype.

By preparing for this "volatility" with a balance sheet that can withstand an extended period of "very low prices," Chevron's CEO noted that the company predicts it will deliver 10% compound annual growth in free cash flow over the next several years.

"Driven by the Permian, driven by some other shale assets in our portfolio, projects in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico," Wirth pointed out, "we've got a number of other assets that are delivering growth. And the combination with Hess only strengthens our cash flow longer into the future, not only to the end of this decade, but well into the next."

https://www.foxbusiness.com/energy/chevron-ceo-reveals-us-will-see-end-oil-age

Chevron CEO reveals when US will see the 'end of the oil age'

RE

Is he an honest man?

[RE]

Sounds like tough times ahead for small polluters.  Only apply if you can destroy the environment on a planetary scale.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/76-of-Small-Offshore-Oil-Companies-at-Risk.html

76% of Small Offshore Oil Companies at Risk

RE