[TDoS]

The US shale revolution is on track to produce twenty-one million barrels a day.  This is one-fifth of the worlds production.

No it isn't. The 21 million barrel nonsense.

[RE]

Peak Oil is back for an encore performance.  It's DejaVu all over again. 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Return-of-Peak-Oil.html

The Return of Peak Oil

[TDoS]

Peak Oil is back for an encore performance.  It's DejaVu all over again. 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Return-of-Peak-Oil.html

The Return of Peak Oil

The return of peak oil. GOOD ONE! I remember when Robert fell for #3, or was it #4, of this century. He was a decent numbers guy, it is a bit interesting that he only noticed peak oil, again, 7 years AFTER it happened this time. Waiting to be sure I guess?

[RE]

I put that one up just for you.   

RE

[K-Dog]

Where have they gone.
They are not all gone.
Here a remnant remains.

First fracking, and renewables, together they created a mass die-off of Peak Oil aficionados.  But technology improvements will not go on forever.  Technical tire patching will cease before population can fall to healthy levels.

Naysayers and impatient narcissists cannot understand that nature runs on a longer time scale than the three ring circus in their brains. They have there time now, and they strut their stuff.  But like the boy who cried wolf soon enough no one will listen to them.

[K-Dog]

Easy Oil and the living is summertime easy.


Come wintertime living won't be so easy.
Time is coming when new oil wells will only supply the rich.




They will eat steak, and your beef-jerky will be made out of processed bugs.

[TDoS]

They are not all gone.
Here a remnant remains.

First fracking, and renewables, together they created a mass die-off of Peak Oil aficionados.

Okay, you got me. Modern fracking, patented by Halliburton around 1947...created a die off of peakers? Peaking stuff by my estimate became popular around turn of the century and exploded along with the internet, seemed to have some steam for a decade, and I would peg TOD closing up shop around 2013 as the official end.

I don't know if renewables were all that involved, other than them and EVs knocking out some measure of overall demand further along, and that probably wasn't noticeable until after the peakers had already began slowly sidling sideways to get out the door without anyone else noticing.

[K-Dog]

Energy expert Art Berman joins Jim Puplava to break down the numbers, challenge mainstream analysis, and explain why oil companies don't actually care about oil prices, only investor enthusiasm.

They dive into the 333 plan, government subsidies, the geopolitical power of oil, and why shale may not be peaking as some predict.  If you want the real story behind U.S. energy policy, this is a must-listen interview.

This interview is excellent, and it clarifies the confusion that our resident troll TDOS likes to introduce to claim that fracking and horizontal drilling are just more of the old, same old.  Nothing to see here move along is his message.

I agree with the content.


The content source.

Art Berman's personal site.

[TDoS]

Energy expert Art Berman joins Jim Puplava to break down the numbers, challenge mainstream analysis, and explain why oil companies don't actually care about oil prices, only investor enthusiasm.

Any reference on when Art became an energy expert? I checked his residence once when he listed it as the address for his "consulting" firm on Google, it said it was a Mary Kay cosmetics location.

I think his most famous peak oil moment was when he announced on behalf of ASPO in 2011 that there wasn't significant oil is US shales...and like a month later the Administrator of the EIA was trumpeted the fastest growing US oil production numbers in the HISTORY of the country. From shales.

Talk about gettings ones johnson caught in your zipper.

[K-Dog]

Ask him.

https://www.artberman.com/

According to the recording, he has the website to allow people to get in touch with him.

[TDoS]

Ask him.

https://www.artberman.com/

According to the recording, he has the website to allow people to get in touch with him.

I already have. When he was in Denver and revealed he was a history major before he decided to become a geologist...who didn't know the history of horizontal wells. He took questions. When he was on TOD, and made up OpX numbers on shale gas wells and made the mistake of putting a number to them in front of someone who knew the right answer. I was part of the audience that snickered when John stopped him in the middle of presentation at the national AAPG meeting in Texas (turns out you really shouldn't misrepresent the work of national caliber professionals when they are running the session). And when he attempted to introduce EROEI into the AAPG CORE (Committee on Resource Evaluation) committee topics for professional study the chairmen stopped in the office and asked me what my recommendation was.

There is a reason he does a...blog....thingie. No credibility after his October 2011 news conference. But for entertainment value in the world of geosciences, the guy is priceless.

[K-Dog]

So would you say an old dog can't learn new tricks?

No excuses for them, but anybody who gets in the public eye is going to experience extreme social distortion.  Group think takes over.  Combine that with the relentless expectations with no time off in the public eye, and mistakes will be made.

I have a Stoic humility, but the engine in my brain-pan does run high rpms, and really I have not met a person in my life who does not express some brain-dead bullshit which makes no sense, and which is not related to the actual material conditions of our existence even by a stretch of the imagination if I hear anyone talk for more than five minutes. 

I am forced to admit a sort of 'superiority' and I really don't like it.  But the truth is the world is filled with stupidinos, who spend most of their energy just trying to appear normal.  People who absorb much, but learn little.

It is impossible for me to 'follow' anyone, and when I have met 'guru' types in my life, they quickly identify me as competition or as an outright enemy.  If two Buddhas met each other on the road they would most certainly kill each other.  200% !

Bottom line - As everyone wears the mask of the idiot if you pay enough attention, then relying on 'reputation' to judge the quality of their truth is a fools errand. 

Pay attention to the message and ignore the messenger.

And concerning true idiots, even those motherfuckers are right twice a day.  Just like clocks.

[TDoS]

So would you say an old dog can't learn new tricks?

Do you mean can a geologist who publically stated that the US doesn't have much oil in shales, learn....something new? I would presume he can learn something new, yes.

I've been watching his updates since he fired up his new website circa Dec 28, 2023 or so. The first title annoucement he then released on January 10, 2024. "Beginning of the End for the Permian"

How much did he learn between 2011 and thinking there wasn't much oil in US shales and this blog post? You tell me.

No excuses for them, but anybody who gets in the public eye is going to experience extreme social distortion.  Group think takes over.  Combine that with the relentless expectations with no time off in the public eye, and mistakes will be made.

By "public eye" do you mean anyone belting out blog stuff? And then "relentless expectations" come from believing that because it is online it has value?

I am forced to admit a sort of 'superiority' and I really don't like it.  But the truth is the world is filled with stupidinos, who spend most of their energy just trying to appear normal.  People who absorb much, but learn little.

Hey! Something we completely agree with!

Bottom line - As everyone wears the mask of the idiot if you pay enough attention, then relying on 'reputation' to judge the quality of their truth is a fools errand.

Well good thing with Art we have him being silly in 2011 and still doing it in 2023. So rather than knowing much of anything in any moment, he has CONSISTENCY on just always getting things wrong? Like a perfect counter-indicator? He portrays it as true....you can instantly discount every word.

Pay attention to the message and ignore the messenger.

Always reasonable. So Art proves he doesn't know anything about oil production in 2011...and proves his consistency by doing it again in 2023....we can ignore the messenger and know only that whomever the messenger is, they don't appear to know anything about oil.

And concerning true idiots, even those motherfuckers are right twice a day.  Just like clocks.

So if motherfuckers can be right twice a day, doesn't that make someone being wrong across more than a decade twcie is even WORSE than being a true idiot? More like...a SUPER true idiot?

[K-Dog]

I was told there were huge reserves of shale oil way back in 1975, the issue then was how to get it economically.  You will argue the point, but how to get it was not mainstream knowledge.

Estimates since 2015 suggest that the best parts of the Permian Basin may reach an EROEI of 7–10:1, but the average across U.S. shale is still closer to an EROEI of 5:1.  It takes a lot more money to get the same oil than it used to.

I think economic conditions will give us a Seneca Cliff of production after which taxes will be used to pump oil so you can then buy it.  Socialism for the rich.  Shit for everyone else.

The big picture is far more complicated than how much black stuff is in the rocks.

[TDoS]

I was told there were huge reserves of shale oil way back in 1975, the issue then was how to get it economically.  You will argue the point, but how to get it was not mainstream knowledge.

You would need to be more specific about "shale oil". That term in its proper geologic use designates "kerogen" (which is a solid, and not oil), and estimates of its size measuring in the potential trillions of barrels exists in the western basins in the Green River Fmt/Piceance if memory serves and the USGS quantified it a couple years ago, just for fun.

1.5 trillion or so, in the Piceance Basin...Utah and Colorado mostly I believe, the stuff Jimmy Carter was going to use to fight global peak oil in 1979.

https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2009/3012/pdf/FS09-3012.pdf

This work was done by Ron who is a real geologist and knows damn well what he is saying when he opens his mouth. He came looking for me to have an interesting conversation about halfway through his research when he was wanting to discuss methodology ideas for quantifying these volumes.

This ISN'T the shale oil, referred to by the EIA as LTO, which includes both "oil from shales" (light sweet crude sitting there in-situ and produced directly from the rock (unlike kerogen) and oil from low permeability rocks. That "shale oil" is liquid, estimates of viability under $200/bbl measured in some fraction of a trillion barrels.

The kerogen was of interest in the late 70's when Jimmy was trying to save the world and Exxon hadn't yet scrapped the Colony project.

Estimates since 2015 suggest that the best parts of the Permian Basin may reach an EROEI of 7–10:1, but the average across U.S. shale is still closer to an EROEI of 5:1.  It takes a lot more money to get the same oil than it used to.

Companies when evaluating their Permian LTO use IRR as their metric of doing something or not, EROEI calculations are irrelevant. The academics have certainly had fun with the idea, but no company to my knowledge and relationships spanning 5 decades, or my knowledge of the history of O&G development has ever reported it to shareholders or stockholders, CEOS are not delivered progress reports on improving it, they don't calculate it in advance of development to pick well sites or develop acquisition plans (XOM certainly didn't do it prior to acquiring Pioneer), and it is as meaningful as the phases of the moon when it comes to deciding what and when and where to drill.

So some EROEI somewhere calculated by someone is X over here and Y very there? Ok, I'll take your word for it.

I think economic conditions will give us a Seneca Cliff of production after which taxes will be used to pump oil so you can then buy it.  Socialism for the rich.  Shit for everyone else.

No Seneca Cliff maybe as drilling rates have't cratered, but I'll let you in on something that folks in the media and internet "experts" don't seem to have spotted...but the data sits right there.

Buried on this chock-a-block page full of information for the public:
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/
there is Table 9. Crude oil production from the WPSR is the top line. Go check out the history of the US over the past year. PEAK OIL AGAIN! Whoo Hooo! I wonder if my peak oil consulting will skyrocket again? Those days were fun.

The big picture is far more complicated than how much black stuff is in the rocks.

Of course it is. Except for the real diehard peak oilers, to whom it is the only thing. There aren't many of them left, having been burned by their ignorance so often, and so hard, this century.