The Limits to Growth

[K-Dog]

Why should we be interested in half-century-old simulations carried out on clunky, ancient mainframe computers that were Fred Flinstone technology compared to the modern day?

Because we're living out the simulations now.

This year an updated version of The Limits to Growth model showed industrial production peaking, with food production peaking soon.

As the authors caution ....

Yada Yada Yada, so what.  It is academic and obscure like the first model.  A compartmentalized academic exercise, and if it is not reproduced so the public can understand and play with the model perhaps humanity deserves to expire.  A snarky comment you think?  No, because we are not talking about that much code.  Less code than some of the JavaScript modules I have written here I think.  I have the background to understand all of it. 

My last professional job was restoring an IBM CRT display like the one which shows at 9:11 in the video.  The one I was tasked to restore was found in an Australian junkyard.  Half of it was missing but i was able to get to tube to work again.  The point is I understand old technology, and the desert air preserved the tube.

New code will be able be run using JavaScript in a browser.  The master open source model model will be written in Python with modules broken down with chapters written on each to show where data comes from and how it is used.  A forum like this can be on the documentation website to answer questions, and share info.

A dedicated website where people can go to understand the model.  I am willing to do my part to make this happen.  Start by watching this if you can help:

The first thing to do is get a copy of the code and break it down so it can be rebuilt as an open source project.  People with the connections and abilities to make this happen, please get in touch with me.

The first production milestones will be to reproduce the standard run.

Brian Hayes is not a relation.  Here are two of the books mentioned in the video.  I'll be busy.

Industrial Dynamics (Jay W Forrester)

World Dynamics (Jay W Forrester)

[RE]

It would be a blast to have the model as an App you could run on your phone, especially if you could add and change parameters as new information and statistics come in.  For instance, back in 72 I doubt anyone projected how far the global fertility rate would have fallen by 2024, and how fast that drop is accelerating. Also current data on CO₂ content in the atmosphere or aquifer & soil depletion rates.  Nor I think was there a way to factor in substitution of new technologies such as the growth of Solar PV and Wind power.

Unfortunately, my own skills don't fall in this area, so besides suggesting ideas for what it would be cool if it could do, I am of no use to this project.  I can see where you would get completely obsessed by it though. lol.

What about incorporating AI into the model?  Maybe there would be a way to set it up so that an AI subroutine was constantly searching the net for data that would improve the accuracy of the projections?  You could turn it on every day and check to see how the latest Collapse Weather report is!  "Today will be cloudy with a chance of extinction by 2100 improved by 2%.  Occasional dry periods as your taps run dry from noon to 4PM."  lol.

RE

[K-Dog]

Urban Dynamics

This one was harder to find.  I am well in to digesting 'World Dynamics'.  Finding the user guide to to the DYNAMO compiler has not been successful so far.

The concepts behind the system dynamic models are readily accessible.  Reading the notation is a challenge.  My idea for the project is evolving.  Still waiting for others to dig into the model details.

An Idea:

A website can use the results of a model 'run' to show 'fake news' to a viewer.  This visitor knows the model generates the news.  The news selected to show the view will represent the model state.  If agricultural production is crashing.  This might show as news.

[K-Dog]

Urban Dynamics is worth talking about all by itself.  But not today.  Today I found the Dynamo Users Manual using a Russian search engine.

It looks like I may be working on this project by myself for a while.  I'll publish a link to the manual when somebody else shows up to participate.