Real Estate REgurgitations

[K-Dog]

The land of unearned riches.  It could not go on forever.  The only property anybody should be able to own is their private residence.  If some useless eaters are in distress it is nothing to be concerned about.

Shunning labor is the conventional evidence of wealth and the mark of social standing.

In Ponzi America having wealth depends on everyone else having wealth.  Most everyone has borrowed wealth and is actually in debt.  Debt is something Americans aspired to.  I will pretend to have wealth if you do.  As long as we all pretend it is 'all good'.  And fuck everybody else who can't pretend to have shit.

But now payments due exceed accounts received.  As it should be.

[RE]

Shades of 2008, not just the Commercial RE market is having problems, the housing market isn't doing so great either.  Not as bad as the sudden collapse of the sub-prime mortgage market of LIAR and NINJA loans that hit at the end of 2007 and brought down Lehman, but a steady increase in foreclosures as affordability drops and interest rates stay high.  So far,the numbers say we're not in a recession, the question is if that will hold up through the 3rd quarter and the POTUS election?  It still boggles my mind that voters will have to choose between two octogenarian imbeciles so corrupt they make Latin American dictators look honest, and at least some of them will show up at the polls to vote.  Very sad.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/home-foreclosures-are-soaring-nationwide-rising-fastest-these-states

Home foreclosures are soaring nationwide – and rising fastest in these 5 states

RE

[K-Dog]

The typical salary required nationwide for home ownership up to $106,500 — a stunning 61% increase from the $59,000 required just four years ago, according to Zillow.

That from your article.  But people won't scream for the American Dream or make a scene before poverty makes them lean and mean.  By then it will be too late.  If it isn't already!

Everybody in America seems fine with a rentier economy. Most people think they will have a chance to do a little exploiting on there own before the tent comes down on this circus.

$106,500 a year is $51 an hour.  Twice the average American wage.

And you have some idiots making less than 60K a year thinking that raising the minimum wage will hurt their families.

[RE]

The typical salary required nationwide for home ownership up to $106,500 — a stunning 61% increase from the $59,000 required just four years ago, according to Zillow.

That from your article.  But people won't scream for the American Dream or make a scene before poverty makes them lean and mean.  By then it will be too late.  If it isn't already!

Everybody in America seems fine with a rentier economy. Most people think they will have a chance to do a little exploiting on there own before the tent comes down on this circus.

$106,500 a year is $51 an hour.  Twice the average American wage.

And you have some idiots making less than 60K a year thinking that raising the minimum wage will hurt their families.

I'm not sure exactly where it is in the FSoA that you can afford to buy a McMansion making $105K/year.  Certainly not in NY, Austin, Los Angeles or Seattle.  Anywhere McMansions come cheap enough to buy on that salary like maybe Springfield, MO or Macon, GA,  95% of the population is making minimum wage of like $15/hour.

I'm no fan of property ownership of course.  I'm fine with people owning a house, just not the land it's parked on.  Land is commons, it belongs to all the creatures who live on it.  You can use it for a while, but as soon as you take it out of the commons you create a class of Haves and another of Have Nots.  If you recall, in the FSoA when it was founded, you had to be a Property Owner to have a vote.  Which meant of course that Natives couldn't vote, because they just had reservations to live on commonly.  Once a person owns land, they can bequeath it to their heirs, creating a class of Royalty, as opposed to "Commoners" who don't own land.  What happens when all the land is bought up, and none left in a given location to buy?  Supply and demand kicks in, and the price keeps spiraling upward, always leaving the class of Have Nots.

Now, it's a different story if you have a domicile of your own you can move around as needed, and additional places to drop it can be added by building upward scaffolding and stacking them up.  That way, people can own their home, and the state provides the scaffolding wherever more people need to live, to be close to their jobs.  The houses would be affordable, and you could buy and sell them on ebay.









RE

[TDoS]

Shades of 2008, not just the Commercial RE market is having problems, the housing market isn't doing so great either. 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/home-foreclosures-are-soaring-nationwide-rising-fastest-these-states

Home foreclosures are soaring nationwide – and rising fastest in these 5 states

RE

One of the biggest financial mistakes I ever made was not buying a house during the lows in 2008. Home values had tanked, and I could have rented it out, and it would have paid off in housing value growth similar to what you have mentioned K-Dog was able to take advantage of. Maybe let one of the kids have it to save themselves rent and whatnot after college. 

I wonder when prices might crash to levels making that game available again.

[K-Dog]

Shades of 2008, not just the Commercial RE market is having problems, the housing market isn't doing so great either. 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/home-foreclosures-are-soaring-nationwide-rising-fastest-these-states

Home foreclosures are soaring nationwide – and rising fastest in these 5 states

RE

One of the biggest financial mistakes I ever made was not buying a house during the lows in 2008. Home values had tanked, and I could have rented it out, and it would have paid off in housing value growth similar to what you have mentioned K-Dog was able to take advantage of. Maybe let one of the kids have it to save themselves rent and whatnot after college.

I wonder when prices might crash to levels making that game available again.

I am an oddball.  I was never all right with property values going up.  I think houses should be affordable and steps should have been taken all along the way to keep houses affordable.

When houses become un-affordable and you are lucky enough to own a house it does not mean you are rich.  I you sell the house you have to spend the money to get another place, so it is a wash. 

Home ownership only means you are one of the lucky ones who can live rent free and mortgage free because you have paid your mortgage off.  You pay taxes and have expenses, but you don't pay exorbitant rent or owe a bank until the sun goes red giant.

For years house values went up and all I ever heard was how wonderful it was. 

For years I suffered idiots and fools.  And I still do.

An average home should be worth about five times what the average annual wage is.  A home should be a store of wealth, but that is all.  There never should have been a 'market' as we have known it.

[RE]

I wonder when prices might crash to levels making that game available again.

Not a new idea.



Everyone who dreams of unearned wealth looks to profit off the misery or others.  When farms were being foreclosed on in the Great Depression and homeless Okies were starving on the road to picking the Grapes of Wrath in California Vineyards, there were investors in NY picking up the farms for back taxes and turning the ag industry into conglomerates like Nestle , ConAgra and Monsanto.  In 2008, Blackrock bought thousand of foreclosed McMansions and turned them into rental units.



To paraphrase PT Barnum. "There are scumbags born in every generation".

RE

[RE]

St. Louis was already a decaying big shitty when I lived in MO back in the 1990s, it's hard to imagine how bad it is now.  Pretty close to Detroit I suspect, just perhaps slightly less poor black gang bangers and a few more white trash rednecks.

In terms of revitalizing and repopulating the city, it would seem like a better place to ship the refugees in the Concentration Camps being run on the Tex-Mex border than NYC, Chicago & LA, which are already stuffed to the gills with homeless. Of course, because St Looie has been in decay for so long there's no job opportunities and insufficient state and local tax revenue to cover the costs involved in keeping these folks fed, but at least there are empty buildings there and infrastructure in place to heat them and get the toilets flushing again.  They might have to share bathrooms in the office buildings and take sponge baths instead of shower  but that still better than porta potties and army tents around communal shower stalls.

So the only way to fund it would be through the federal goobermint, and both the state of MO and municipality of St Louis would

A- Be against it since their politics have changed little since the Civil War
&
B- Be forced to staff it and run it,

but given its history & geographic location at the center of the country on the Mighty Mississippi and Gateway to the West, symbolically and practically it seems like the best place to ship the hungry masses yearning to be free the Statue of Liberty talks about so poetically.

In an election year it's unlikely Uncle Joe would float this idea since it would immediately be attacked by The Donald from the courthouse steps at his latest trial, and the right wing media would pick it up and run with it like OJ Simpson in a car chase on the LA freeway.

So it goes.

https://www.businessinsider.com/st-louis-downtown-doom-loop-is-worse-than-san-francisco-2024-4

The city whose 'doom loop' just might be worse than San Francisco's

RE

[RE]

The Big Bubble of CRE is starting to pop.

Of course, we are being reassured by Jerry at Da Fed that this is strictly a Regional Bank problem ant there is no threat to the TBTF Banks.  Which of course really means the TBTF banks are in the deep doo doo.  Just ask Deutche Bank over in Germany.

$1T in distressed loans coming due over the next year is not just a regional bank problem, even if most  of those loans are nominally on the books of those banks.  When those banks have to shutter their doors and go into bankruptcy protection, their stock price plummets and who aare the shareholders of those banks?  You guessed it, the TBTF Banks themselves or their shareholders.  Everybody starts to need to borrow money to cover margin calls and nobody's got money to lend.  The whole shit show collapses in contagion gone wild.

OK, granted that is a Kollapsnik Wet Dream, it probably won't get quite that bad.  It's nott gonna be a minor ripple though either.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/commercial-real-estate-foreclosures-jumped-march-trouble-looms

Commercial real estate foreclosures jumped 117% in March as trouble looms

RE

[RE]

Sounds like the good old days of 2008 are coming back again!  This could be good for RE prices, since it will force the liquidation of a lot of bad mortgages and put a lot of properties up for auction.  Mostly commercial, but some residential too.  That's bad for the homeless situation, since it also probably means evictions.  A falling market will also put more mortggages underwater, which might cause owners with non-recourse mortgages to send in the Jingle Mail.

Recession signs popping up all over the place now.

https://watcher.guru/news/billionaire-barry-sternlicht-expects-one-bank-failure-per-week

Billionaire Barry Sternlicht Expects One Bank Failure Per Week

RE

[RE]

This could be good for RE prices, since it will force the liquidation of a lot of bad mortgages and put a lot of properties up for auction.  Mostly commercial, but some residential too.

Right on cue.  This bank bought it back for less than 10 cents on the dollar.  Next tax filing they have a $100M+ write down on the balance sheet.  Pinnacle Bank is not a TBTF bank.  If they can't unload this property for a bit more than what they just paid for it, they won't be far behind in declaring bankruptcy.

And the beat goes on.

Now tell me, how many refugees do you think you could shelter in 1M square feet?  If you cut it up into 500 sq ft apartments, you could have 2000 apartments there.  Meanwhile, they spend more than that putting up tents at the border.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/real-estate/fort-worths-tallest-building-sells-just-12-3m-auction-stunning-price-drop



RE

[RE]

What could possibly go wrong? lol.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2024/06/freddie-and-fannie-and-the-coming-nightmare-on-main-street/

Freddie (and Fannie) and the Coming Nightmare on Main Street

RE

[K-Dog]

What could possibly go wrong? lol.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2024/06/freddie-and-fannie-and-the-coming-nightmare-on-main-street/

Freddie (and Fannie) and the Coming Nightmare on Main Street

RE

The conservative bias shows:

The National Review was founded in 1955 by the conservative editor, columnist, author, and commentator William F. Buckley Jr. (1925-2008). According to their about page, the print magazine and website are corporately known as National Review, Inc. It is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the National Review Institute (NRI) based in New York City.  The magazine's website covers articles, blogs, videos, podcasts, opinion pieces, conservative news, and commentary in addition to the content published in its print version.

Unfortunately I can't use the online version as toilet paper.  But a print version of the article would be fluffy and soft.

[RE]

The conservative bias shows:

Right wing bias notwithstanding, Goobermint-guaranteed loans are mainly a risk-free cash machine for the TBTF banks.  Bad loans are all covered by the taxpayer in true "Privatize the Profits, Socialize the Losses" Capitalist fashion.  In addition, pumping still more borrowed money to prop up an anemic, inflation ridden economy is aspectacularly bad idea.

The FHFA also seems likely to approve a Freddie request to purchase second mortgages. The "primary goal" of the proposal, the government says, is to create a cheaper version of "cash-out refinance" — in other words, to allow consumers to pump more borrowed money into the economy at a time of persistent inflation.

Both of the quasi-Goobermint corporations are practically guaranteed to need another, even bigger bailout with the next RE collapse, which does not look too far off on the horizon.

RE

[K-Dog]

True