Real Estate REgurgitations

[RE]

"Here they come to sell 'em again."

The FL RE market now resembles a stock market crash where you have everyone trying to sell at the same time and no buyers.  The Sunshine State is getting hit by the Perfect Storm of  Climate Collapse and Economic Collapse which is going to turn the state into a total basket case by the time Milton finishes wiping out probably 1/3rd of the infrastructure in the most populous part of the state.

For those people who theoretically are insured, it will be interesting to see how the claims are paid out.  I am going to predict losses north of $100B coming out of this disaster and a bailout of 1 or more re-insurers before all is said and done.  This may even be enough to tip the scales at the TBTF banks.

https://nypost.com/2024/10/08/real-estate/florida-homeowners-are-now-struggling-to-sell/

Florida housing market crumbles: Homeowners struggle to sell amid rising insurance costs and storm fears

RE

[RE]

Periodically we get a really good analysis of the RE market  and why the housing situation has become the disaster waiting to happen that it is.  This is one such article, the sad reality though is despite at least a few people are aware of the problems and reasons for them, AND are able to get articles published in widely read financial journals, nobody in power pays much attention or does anything to address these problems and correct them.  This because those same people who hold the strings of power are financially bought into the system as it exists and are getting ever richer the longer they can keep the game running.

Like all bubbles though it will pop eventually and the great financial house of cards will come crashing down.  What unfortunately true also is that it's so difficult to say what will trigger the collapse and when it will come.  That's what keeps me waiting, watching and writing about collapse though, despite the fact so many others have stopped.  I don't wanna miss the action when it finally comes.

https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2024/11/12/the-housing-market-is-a-bubble-full-of-fraud-and-its-going-to-pop-mdf24

The Housing Market Is a Bubble Full of Fraud, and It's Going To Pop

RE

[K-Dog]

So I can thank the communist party of China for driving up the prices in my neighborhood to over a million bucks?  The neighborhood is over half Chinese now and they are not from Seattle's south end or SF, and my comment is not flippant.  Fresh off the boat is old school.  They flew first class to get here.

Being as they have gold, their dogs are safe.



The golden boy will tell her they are not dog eaters.

But some of them are.  But shhhheesh on that.  In America it is capitalism forever.

[RE]

I think his point was you can switch China for Amerika and Communism for Capitalissm, and the reasons for corruption in the RE market and the financial bubble are the same.

RE

[RE]

At least according to Wolfstreet, the Year of Reckoning has arrived for CMBS with the ball dropping and ringing in 2025.  Not to worry though, our treasured banking system is safe!

Office debt alone isn't big enough – at less than $1 trillion, it accounts for only about 16% of total CRE debt – and is held too broadly by investors, such as these hapless CMBS holders, to do serious damage to the US banking system

This reassurance tacked onto the end of this article is pretty broad, and it's hard to imagine how $1T in write downs won't havee some kind of effect on overall liquidity as well as capital requirements for the banks holding the paper.  Like all the rest of their assets, this paper gets rehypothecated a few times, and anyone short of cash has to sell something.  So even if the CMBS of the office space by itself isn't enough, as the losses cascade through the various markets, other problems as yet unidentified pop up.  A particular weakness would be in the stock market, which based on historically highly overvalued P/E ratios looks set up to take a hit.

We also have the very unstable political situations in Europe and MENA, so I expect to see some crack develop in the financial markets over the next couple of months.  We'll see.

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/12/31/office-cmbs-delinquency-rate-spikes-to-a-record-11-surpassing-the-peak-of-the-financial-crisis/

Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to a Record 11%, Blowing by the Financial Crisis Peak

RE