It is not just Energy and it is not just Oil.  Human behavior is involved.
And stupidity will be dealt with accordingly.   

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#1
Tech Won't Save Us / AI Is Fueling A 'Nuclear Renai...
Last post by RE - Today at 09:31 AM
Power companies love AI.  Not too good for J6P though.

"Expect lower reliability and higher costs for consumers, while energy producers might make more money on the supply side by producing less energy but being paid to exist," he said.

The ultimate TBTF company!

On the plus side, you'll be able to complain to dead movie stars about your electric bill on the phone.

https://www.investors.com/news/artificial-intelligence-ai-data-centers-demand-nuclear-energy/?utm_source=newsshowcase&utm_medium=gnews&utm_campaign=CDAqEAgAKgcICjDOm4YLMJD1gwMw5ZOJAw&utm_content=rundown&gaa_at=la&gaa_n=AWsEHT6Zc83B-2qbHQo3Qp71Q5tNBqyxEBq9L2urMtey1ZHe0BxQQkiK41qjZ4xtWTnLA_O2HzOsa2tC3xBF&gaa_ts=6692b635&gaa_sig=kVbCY4qa1iCCj4X-DCVFx5TN1pinFUX4s8VxpxwlstFPmuW815EWPmE_f6W66BnOMHeIh9Z0Av27hf5wGSPhVg%3D%3D

RE
#2
Tech Won't Save Us / Thermonuclear Blasts & New Spe...
Last post by RE - Today at 12:56 AM
OK, I am now fairly convinced that besides being the world champion narcissist and ego maniac, Elon Musk has suffered a severe psychotic break with reality.  Elon apparently believes we can have a colony on Maes with a Million people in 20 years.  If we could even drop a single homo sap meat package on Mars and return him that would be surprising.  He thinks it can be self sustaining. 
The environment on Mars is even more inhospitable than Antarctica.  The atmosphere lacks enough oxygen for mammalian life.  His tinkertoy rockets couldn't lift enough material off the earth and get it to Mars if you started today with 100X as many of them as he has currently operational.

Besides the fully sprouted Homo Saps, Elon plans on starting a new species with his sperm, Homo Muskus.  Apparently Elon fancies himself the Adam of the species Homo Muskus that will evolve on Mars, after his SpaceX Rockets deliver 1 Million A-List Supermodel Vaginas to be impregnated on Mars.

Sanity has officially collapsed.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/thermonuclear-blasts-new-species-inside-musks-plan-to-colonise-mars/articleshow/111674217.cms

RE
#3
General Discussion / - The End of Restaurants as ...
Last post by RE - Jul 12, 2024, 01:16 PM
Quote from: K-Dog on Jul 11, 2024, 11:55 PMLife is not the same without late night eats.  This is truly collapse!

I agree.  It's a Quality of Life issue.  A whole way of life where you could always find a 24 hour restaurant even if you worked crazy shifts or just had the munchies and a craving for some food is gone.  In NY, there were Delis and Pizzerias and Chinese takeout open all night.  It really was "the city that never sleeps".

It's like the disappearance of all the free content you used to get on the internet.  I could pick any newz story and Google 20 sources to read different spins and try to figure out the truth.  Now, about the only thing free is reading Headlines.

Once upon a time, there was Camelot.

RE
#4
Past Peak / - Peak Oil 101
Last post by RE - Jul 12, 2024, 11:48 AM
Quote from: TDoS on Jul 12, 2024, 07:58 AMThe international actors are completely different. Walk into the room with some energy minister or another and begin laying out costs, timing and particulars, and when you discuss the 15% iRR that can be achieved, you get told to go back to the drawing board and find 25-30% iRR projects to fund. Think of them as being loan sharks compared to how the domestic E&Ps do it.

The problem of course is that you project your IRR  at what you THINK the oil will sell at when the well starts producing.  If you say you think it will sell for $80 but when the well comes online it's at $60, your revenue is 25% less than projected.   Obviously you have to convince the energy minister you are right and the IEA is wrong.  This makes it a risky investment.  The banks that ponied up money before the price dropped down to $30-50 between 2015-2021 took a serious bath since it had been selling at $90-100 in 2014.

So what price would you have penciled in right now (hypothetically) when you make your pitch to the Argentinians?

RE
#5
Past Peak / - Peak Oil 101
Last post by TDoS - Jul 12, 2024, 07:58 AM
Quote from: RE on Jul 11, 2024, 08:20 PMClearly the Argentinians have not read the IEA or BP predictions.  lol.  Arriving a little late to the party.  Now the question is, who will pony up and finance the drilling?  Since the IEA projects a supply GLUT for the next decade, it doesn't seem to be a very attractive investment opportunity.  The Brit banks aren't financing new FF drilling in the North Sea, but maybe they would hand over money to Argentina for drilling?

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/article/2024/jul/11/argentinas-future-lies-in-the-balance-as-vast-oilfields-poised-for-extraction

Argentina's future lies in the balance as vast oilfields poised for extraction


RE

Recently, during evaluations of offshoe resources in Guyanna, this problem reared its ugly head. In the States with continuous resource development (LTO and shale gas for those unfamiliar with the terms) it comes down to IRR across a sequence of CapX investment in a cycle. They get the discount from the service companies for the work, pound it all out and stand back and check to see that the mean of the IRR for all is reasonable, and begin playing hedging games and whatnot. Reevaluate and do it again.

The international actors are completely different. Walk into the room with some energy minister or another and begin laying out costs, timing and particulars, and when you discuss the 15% iRR that can be achieved, you get told to go back to the drawing board and find 25-30% iRR projects to fund. Think of them as being loan sharks compared to how the domestic E&Ps do it.
#6
Past Peak / - Peak Oil 101
Last post by TDoS - Jul 12, 2024, 07:52 AM
Quote from: RE on Jul 10, 2024, 11:33 PM
Quote from: TDoS on Jul 10, 2024, 08:54 PMI'll buy that for a dollar!!

So you're going short on oil?  Make some money betting the demand dropping?

RE

I tend to bet overall market performance, not specific stocks, industries or commodities.

So for example when a decent recession is coming, I move from market tracking funds to fixed returns, and back again when things begin to turn. Made an absolute killing timing the end of the world with peak oil 2008 (according to the experts at TOD) and bet the wrong way a few years ago coming out of the market during Covid rather than before it. Stayed in that position to long, but got back in in time to get substantial benefit from the post Covid government spending spree and weird housing market reaction that came along with it. Went short on the market about 3 months ago, but not a bunch. Just a little.

Oil is irrelevant in the overall scheme of things from my investing perspective. Too myopic of a perspective.
#7
Past Peak / - Peak Oil 101
Last post by K-Dog - Jul 12, 2024, 12:27 AM
Quote from: RE on Jul 11, 2024, 08:20 PMhttps://www.theguardian.com/global-development/article/2024/jul/11/argentinas-future-lies-in-the-balance-as-vast-oilfields-poised-for-extraction

Argentina's future lies in the balance as vast oilfields poised for extraction

RE

Privatize the commons, full speed ahead.  Let no crying infant or starving widow stop you.  As the preforming Argentinian clown just said:

Starting the delivery of his go-to manifesto about the evils of socialism, and virtues of the free market, Milei gave a hearty hug to Brazil's hard-right former President Javier Bolsonaro, who just days earlier was indicted by federal police in a scheme to embezzle Saudi diamonds.

QuoteMy friend Jair Bolsonaro is suffering judicial persecution,
Milei said onstage from the conference in Brazil's southern city of Balneario Camboriu.

Che would not be happy.

* Bozo is getting Trumped and Trump is not.
#8
General Discussion / - The End of Restaurants as ...
Last post by K-Dog - Jul 11, 2024, 11:55 PM
Life is not the same without late night eats.  This is truly collapse!  That Sheri's that was next to the Renton hotel you stayed in closed.  I think the 5-Spot in Seattle is still open late........

Checking....... 

Nope it closes earlier than a church does now. 



The 13 Coins is still open 24 hours.  I hope the high yellow 3 AM experience still goes on.  I remember much beauty.

It is like everybody became a church puppy.

But we all know for sure that is not true.

No way is that true.

Nope.

It's collapse.
#9
Past Peak / Argentina’s future lies in the...
Last post by RE - Jul 11, 2024, 08:20 PM
Clearly the Argentinians have not read the IEA or BP predictions.  lol.  Arriving a little late to the party.  Now the question is, who will pony up and finance the drilling?  Since the IEA projects a supply GLUT for the next decade, it doesn't seem to be a very attractive investment opportunity.  The Brit banks aren't financing new FF drilling in the North Sea, but maybe they would hand over money to Argentina for drilling?

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/article/2024/jul/11/argentinas-future-lies-in-the-balance-as-vast-oilfields-poised-for-extraction

Argentina's future lies in the balance as vast oilfields poised for extraction


RE
#10
General Discussion / - The End of Restaurants as ...
Last post by RE - Jul 11, 2024, 02:42 PM
Back in NYC in my club hopping years after a night of hard partying making the rounds from Max's Kansas City to see Tom Petty ans CBGBs to see Patti Smith it was tradition to go to the Empire Diner at 4AM after the bars closed to have breakfast.  I wonder if they're still in bizness?



Answer:  Yes, but closes at 11PM. Probably even Truckstops don't do 24/7 food anymore.  Just microwaveables in the convenience store.

RE