Inflation will make the price higher than 70 $ a barrel. 

The addict pays what he/she has to pay.

Oil price models should factor in the price of oil in a feedback look.  I suspect they do not.

But I am too busy creating the Dynamo project to find out.  My so far, private intellectual dark web.  Go to the page and click on the 'book' to see where I have been busy.  The irony is this is the exact kind of problem to use Dynamo for.  Adding the original Manual makes the project useful.  Not by itself, but it gives the background and history.  The point is a short learning curve and the manual helps.

Add Morgan Stanley to BP and the EIA in the Short on Oil betting pool, as they pro0ject a supply glut for 2025 and price drop into the $70 range.  That number Is based on their analyses of "fundamentals" of Supply & Demand, and doesn't really take into account the effects of a Recession, which remains IMHO likely to arrive by the end of 2023, if it's not already here.  With recession factored in, a price in the $60s is possible, and that's where things really get interesting on the production level.  While the tight oil producers probably can squeak by with mid $70s prices, $60s is a big money loser.  We're down in the $70s again today already, while Morgan Stanley doesn't call for that until mid-2025.  So a drop into the $60s seems probable to me next year.

Despite all these indicators of a coming glut and price drop, there hasn't been any newz about producers reacting by  saying they will cut production, probably because they don't want to spook traders and seem bearish about the future of the economy.  However, I'm sure they are hedging with some short side bets.

Interestingly, the Newz from the POTUS election on both sides, with Trump"s Bloody Ear and Uncle Joe's swan song doesn't seem to have any effect on the oil market at all, or any other market.  In past years something like an Assassination attempt would have generated big changes in sentiment and made significant changes to the needle on pricing.  Which basically demonstrates that noobody really cares who is elected or thinks whoever it is will make any difference.  Who the POTUS is has become an unimportant detail.  The POTUS has about as much real power as the King of England, which is to say none.  Just a figurehead these days.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Morgan-Stanley-Sees-Oil-Prices-Dropping-to-the-Mid-70s-Next-Year.html

RE

Another article bemoaning the housing crisis, and another one drawing the same tired conclusion:

The crisis of housing affordability took years to emerge, and it'll take years to solve.

Yea, great, so what are we supposed to do in the meantime?

Now, he does point out Socialized Housing is an essential:

Whitzman was also quick and careful to point out that nonmarket housing is an essential part of any answer to the problem. In the United States, the idea of a green social housing development authority provides some hope for tackling two problems at once: housing and climate change. In Vienna, Austria, rents are much lower than similar cities in Europe thanks to its 220,000 socialized housing units.

Not sure where this green social housing development authority idea is coming from or who is promoting it?   This is the first time I've heard anything about it.  The example of Vienna though has merit.

The reason WHY not getting socialized housing going is brought up:

Shortcuts run the risk of tanking existing equity and the fortunes of those who rely on their biggest asset to make it to and through retirement.

As I mentioned with the Thought Experiment of the Free Basic Container Housing idea, if you offer TRULY affordable housing to everyone, then it will tank the value of housing all the way up the line until you get to the luxury housing for the elite, because nobody would move out of the free or even just low cost socialized housing until their incomes were really high, otherwise the upgrade in your living standard isn't worth the 50% of your take home pay it costs.  So we are protecting the value of the Boomers homes so they have a comfortable retirement at the expense of having affordable housing for Millenials.

What really pisses me off here is the "Enough Already!" title of this article when it's just another contribution to what we already have enough of, which is people moaning about it, saying it will take years to solve and then not really doing anything to get it solved.  They identify the CAUSE of the problem which is the financialization of housing and treating it as an asset which can be used for profit rather than as a social obligation and fundamental right of all the members of the society.  Their long term solution is "years of rising incomes and stable prices to really make a difference".  Where on the horizon are years of rising incomes coming from when we have had DECADES of falling incomes and rising prices, and nothing systemic is being done to change that dynamic?

So, once again, short of Revolution and/or Collapse, this problem is not gtting solved anytime soon and we'll keep on getting more of what we have already had more than enough of.

https://jacobin.com/2024/07/housing-crisis-homelessness-financialization

RE

Quote from: K-Dog on Jul 21, 2024, 09:02 PMThose jobs pay better.  People still get paid.  How else are you going to get personal property if you don't earn money?

That's not what I'm talking about.  I mean on the requirement that everyone has to do some low level jobs to fulfill their social responsibility.  Nurses would be needed to do nursing work during all their working hours.  You could make the same case for Doctors and Dentists.

RE

I admit to being completely clueless about KH and her history in politics or as a prosecutor.  I definitely would have preferred the Lady Obamanator, but I do grasp the reasons why Uncle Joe had to choose her as his successor.  It reaffirms his choice of her as Veep, where she was always just a bullet or a heart attack away from becoming POTUS anytime over the last 4 years.  Financially also, since she was already on the ticket, she's the only one who can legally take over the campaign war chest of money already raised.  It's also important for the Dems to show Unity and not have the convention devolve into bickering over a bunch of wannabees, so it's probably a done deal and we just gotta see how she shapes up if she beats Bloody Ear.

The one positive I see is that she probably stands the best chance for getting a Constitutional Ammendment to legalize Abortion again, since after the SCOTUS struck down Roe v. Wade that's the only way to get that problem fixed.  I'm not real concerned about her other positions on Wokeism and who gets to use what bathrooms, although I would like to see the Trannies kicked out of Women's Sports and Prisons.

On the MOST important area of Economics I suspect it's hopeless and we will just get more of the same failed policies in the banking and real estate sectors that are responsible for the housing crisis and wealth transfer to the rich, so that will remain a mess whoever gets elected.  She'll probably also be another knee-jerk supporter of Israel & Ukraine given her connection to Uncle Joe.

Anyhow, at least hopefully she can stay awake during press conferences.

RE

Live #763 - Biden is Out, but is Psycho Kamala in?

I confess I am a Maupin fan.  Caleb has had a hard on about Kamala since the first time he heard her giggle. Point being he knows stuff.

If you want to skip the intro jump to seven minutes even up.  Then Caleb spends a couple minutes justifying stirring the pot before he stirs the pot.

Caleb Maupin examines the life of Kamala Harris, and puts her rise to prominence in the context of changing US political discourse and the geopolitical stage. The book draws heavily from Marxism-Leninism, as well as psychology and economics, examining the roots of the crisis in the United States, as well as factors that contributed to Kamala Harris' career.

Very good book. Many sources and quotes. Well written. Clear and to the point but theoretically strong and empirically founded analysis. An interesting and insightful combination of cultural, economical, political and psychological analysis. Maupin does not just list events in isolation as historians generally do but he gives true insight into a social milieu, his style somewhat reminded me of Isaac Deutscher. Definitely worth a read.

Biden may be asleep, but at least he isn't a psychotic maniac driven by hatred of their father. Kamala Harris, in her rage against the oppression of dads everywhere, is willing to nuke dads everywhere, make no mistake about it. A Kamala Harris presidency is unprecedented, never before has someone so fundamentally screwed in the head been this close to the presidency without ANY say by the American people.

Harris was characterized by her mercilessness during her time as a leading prosecutor. She famously fought against the release of DNA evidence and pushed for the death penalty for a black man who was later found completely innocent.

Quote from: RE on Jul 21, 2024, 01:04 PM

Quote from: K-Dog on Jul 21, 2024, 11:58 AM

QuoteThere's still problems.  People who do their community service job might be slackers.  They show up for work and pick up the broom, but they don't get much sweeping done.  They work slow and take long smoking breaks.

The supervisor will write in his/her report that the individual is not be invited back next week.  The individuals card balance falls to the cheese sandwich level.  Bouncing around from job to job would identify someone who needs training.

No different than now, except that someone with a problem gets help.

OK, what about the problem of professions with chronic worker shortages?

RE

Those jobs pay better.  People still get paid.  How else are you going to get personal property if you don't earn money?

QuoteOne has to figure she'll win the Women's vote and the Black/Latino vote.One has to figure she'll win the Women's vote and the Black/Latino vote.

True, chuckleheads are everywhere.  They will be sure to back her.  It might surprise you to know that most women and Black/Latinos might expect more than Kamala word salad from a candidate.  Making it to the top of the heap starting out as Willie Brown's side piece does not bode well.

I think Kamala's accomplishments amount to crickets.  Someone please prove me wrong.


Can she keep us out of war better than the ear?  Her behavior as a prosecutor suggests an instigator of trouble.  As a prosecutor innocence did not concern her, numbers of black men sent to jail did.

Uncle Joe finally Capitulated!  He has now endorsed Kamala Harris as his Heir Apparent.

Will the Demodopes close ranks and line up behind Kamala, or will the convention be a wild melee with other pretenders to the throne throwing their hats in the ring?

Assuming Kamala gets the nod, how does she stack up against Trumpovetsky?  One has to figure she'll win the Women's vote and the Black/Latino vote.

This result is probably the best outcome the Dems could have wished for, and Uncle Joe's collapsse in the debate turned out to be a good thing for them, IF they line up behind Kamala.  If they start duking it out at the convention, it's anther story.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-drops-2024-presidential-race/story?id=111648603

RE

Quote from: K-Dog on Jul 21, 2024, 11:58 AM

QuoteThere's still problems.  People who do their community service job might be slackers.  They show up for work and pick up the broom, but they don't get much sweeping done.  They work slow and take long smoking breaks.

The supervisor will write in his/her report that the individual is not be invited back next week.  The individuals card balance falls to the cheese sandwich level.  Bouncing around from job to job would identify someone who needs training.

No different than now, except that someone with a problem gets help.

OK, what about the problem of professions with chronic worker shortages?

RE