Alaska Energy Woes

[RE]

While the rest of the country has had a warm winter, here on the Last Great Frontier we had an uncharacteristically cold January with many sub-zero F days.  For you folks used to measuring in C, that's temps of -15C and below.  In south central AK where Anchorage is, this is very cold weather.  Normal range has been about 15F average while I have lived here.

The result of this was last week we started running short of NG, which is what we use both for generating electricity and for heating.  Wednesday of last week we ended up with a power outtage, which was fortunately short lived and this week temps have finally come up to the normal range.

Because AK is so far from everywhere else, all our energy supply is sourced locally.  The NG we use all comes from wells dug in the Cook Inlet.  This supply has been depleting, and more wells need to be drilled.  Energy companies however don't want to invest in drilling new wells, it's expensive and just for local use.  So the local pols are all in a tizzy now about what to do about gas moving ahead.

There is of course just GOBS of NG up on the slope where the oil comes from, down the pipeline.  There is no NG pipeline though, and the cost of building one of those over that much distance is astronomical.  The only way that is economic is to export it, but that would take also a LNG production facility and a port capable of handling LNG tankers.  Still more enormous investments the energy companies don't want to make.  So for the forseeable future, a pipeline for NG from the Slope down to Cook Inlet does not appear to be in the cards.

So, how will we cover the shortfall in the near future.  Possibly they may punch a few more holes in Cook Inlet, and if we're lucky and next winter isn't as cold, that will be enough.  The next most likely would be to start burning Coal again, since there are coal deposits in the area that could be mined.  The environmental problems make that an unpopular choice.  Importing LNG also is possible, but that would be very costly for everybody, doubling or tripling energy costs here which are already pretty high.

Another possibility is putting in a Hydro plant.  This has been resisted for years due to environmental concerns about the Salmon fisherie, which quite a few nnative villages still depend on for subsistence fishing, and also provide revenue from tourists.  A big hydro plant kind of kills that pristine natural look in all those tourist brochures.

Most likely is little to nothing will be done, and next winter we'll just keep our fingers crossed we warm up with everyone else.  If that doesn't happen, I suspect next winter will have more frequent and longer power interruptions.  When people start freezing to death even if they're not homeless, maybe they'll start digging up some coal.

https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/anchorage/2024/02/08/anchorage-mayoral-candidates-differ-on-how-to-handle-looming-cook-inlet-energy-shortage/

Anchorage mayoral candidates differ on how to handle looming Cook Inlet energy shortage

RE

[TDoS]

Interesting history of the Anchorage NG issue going back more than a decade. This article is from last spring.

Would you characterize the local perspective as folks have always known about this and just played kick the can all along the way? Now suddenly faced with the completely predictable consequences, they do the usual "blame the politicians" routine?

[RE]

Interesting history of the Anchorage NG issue going back more than a decade. This article is from last spring.

Would you characterize the local perspective as folks have always known about this and just played kick the can all along the way? Now suddenly faced with the completely predictable consequences, they do the usual "blame the politicians" routine?

I would say it's a smaller version of the big story.  People simply ignore the problem until the failures actually arrive.  Telling them in advance the NG (or oil) will run out doesn't get them to change or do anything about it.

For the average J6P around here, he simply assumes that when the gas runs out in Cook Inlet, it will be sourced from somewhere else.  The fact that either bringing it down from the slope or importing LNG are cost prohibitive doesn't occur to him, since he hasn't got a gas bill 3X the size he's used to yet.

So far, the shortage has not resulted in really long blackouts or anyone freezing to death.  When they start needing to do rolling blackouts to ration use, J6P will get pissed.  They will switch to coal despite bitching about the emissions.  Then longer term they'll push for a bond issue to build a hydro plant.

RE

[RE]

Well, they're talking about doing something about running Short on NG here on the Last Great Frontier, but talking about doing and actually doing are two totally different things.

They will undoubtably pick whatever the cheapest temporary fix is they can find to get us through next winter.  The long term solution of piping the gas down from the Slope is too expensive and getting financing for it would be difficult.  Building said pipeline also would take more than a year even if they could get financing together by tomorrow so next winter could be a cold and dark one unless we luck out and get a mild winter this time around.

Maybe they'll install wood burning stoves on each of the courts here.  We're right next to a park with lots of trees.

https://alaskapublic.org/2024/03/29/lots-of-ideas-but-not-much-time-to-address-cook-inlet-gas-crunch/

Lots of ideas, but not much time, to address Cook Inlet gas crunch

RE

[RE]

Well, at least there is one guy who seems to have his head wrapped around the Alaska energ probles pretty well.  Robert Seitz is a PE Electrical Engineer and lifelong Alaskan who pretty much runs thru the gamut of possible sources of future energy production and storage systems.  He even includes possible Tidal Energy from Cook Inlet, although the focus of the article is on keeping the NG production going at full tilt until other shit can be brought online.  He doesn't discuss the proposed Nuke plant, the Susitna dam, geothermal power from our volcanoes or the NG pipeline from the slope.  Bothe the nuke plant and the dam have the Earthquake problem, which could turn either project into a total disaster if it was anything like the 1964 9.2 quake that took out Anchorage.  Main issue here is his insistence on "free market" principles, which no matter what you do will jack up the price of energy to make profits for the shareholders as high as they can extract from the energy consumers.

Anyhow, the clock is ticking for next winter, and they need to come up with some kind of plan or it could get ugly up here.

https://mustreadalaska.com/robert-seitz-lets-keep-cook-inlet-gas-flowing/

Robert Seitz: Let's keep Cook Inlet gas flowing

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[K-Dog]

One guy who seems to have his head wrapped around the Alaska energy problems pretty well. --- Main issue here is his insistence on "free market" principles.

That is a contradiction that can't be resolved. 

EE's go one of two ways.  Most delude themselves into thinking they are upper class because they make a 'good' wage.  Others who realize that having a good wage does not change your social class tend to go the other way and become radical.

It is a profession that attracts people who have a strong bias about how things should be done.  Could that be my bias because I am one?  That could be.

[RE]

A couple of contributions today to the AK NG deficit problem.

The first one on price using imported LNG, which makes the case it's not so bad and price will only rise gradually through 2040, at which time I will be 83 and unlikely to still be above ground.  This does presuppose the price of imported LNG will not rise very much, which somehow I doubt.

https://alaskalandmine.com/landmines/brad-keithleys-chart-of-the-week-impact-of-lng-imports-on-the-cook-inlet-gas-market/

Brad Keithley's Chart of the Week: Impact of LNG imports on the Cook Inlet gas market

Second is a discussion I have yet to watch.

RE