Doomstead

Reading this story about the Housing Crisis in the EU, I had an epiphany.  Along with many other analysts, I have attributed the lack of affordable housing to banking practices which have used real estate as an asset class and home ownership as a way to build and store wealth, rather than as a fundamental human right.  This is a part of the cause, but it's not what truly is driving this, in fact it is a consequence of the Exponential Function.

Lets say the doubling period for the population is 20 years.  Start in 1960 with a population of 1B people.  20 years (next generation) you need 2B housing units, so you had to build 1B new units assuming you lost none of the old ones.  Now it's 1980, and in 20 years you will need 4B units, so in the same time period of 20 years, you need to build 2B units instead of 1B.  So you have to build twice as fast.  Now it's 2000 with 4B so by 2020 you need 8B units, so you needed 4B more.  In 2040, if this continued, you would need 16B units.

You see the problem I trust.  Even if they didn't treat housing as a wealth storage medium, they can't build enough units fast enough to keep up with the exponential growth!  This also explains the collapsing fertility rate.  It's a direct consequence of population overshoot!  If it wasn't for the fact birth rates have been falling for the last decade, the problem would be even worse than it is.

It also means there is about no way that the affordable housing or homeless crisis will improve, it's going to continue to get worse and what we see now is just the tip of the iceberg.  Its not going to improve until death rates start growing as quickly as the birth rate is dropping.

Coming soon to a theater near you.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/article/2024/may/21/young-adults-forced-by-eu-housing-crisis-to-live-with-parents

'I'm screwed': young adults forced by EU housing crisis to live with parents

RE

Quote from: RE on May 21, 2024, 07:25 AM'I'm screwed': young adults forced by EU housing crisis to live with parents

RE

The 25-year-old did move out briefly last year – a friend had a room for let – but the steep rent meant Connor quickly returned home. While he and some of his friends are saving for a deposit, high property prices meant others had little hope of doing so on their salaries, he said: "Some say, 'I'm screwed, I'm going to be living with my parents for ever.'"

I see no mention of parents thinking the situation is fucked. 

Children who do not leave home do not contribute to maintaining the home or offsetting expenses.  There is no magic moment when they have an epiphany telling them it is time to stop being a useless eater and pull their weight. 

The article mentions the situation does not indicate lack of ambition on the part of youth.

Bullshit.  It is visits to friends and comedy clubs every night and sleeping in.  Anybody too lazy or to entitled to work for twenty bucks an hour is considered to be making a statement.  It is individual expression like a first amendment right.  Freedom.

In the 70's, protest about 'working for the man' was common.  But not working was not an option.  Men did not want to spend their adult life as a baby.  Men contribute, work, and build.  It is what a man is.  That is what a man does.  It is a law of the universe. 

You did not bitch about working for the man without having a job to bitch about 'in the day'.  Now work is considered to be a lifestyle choice.  Optional.  An elective activity.  You can bitch about work without having dirty fingernails now.

Working was normal once.  Now cutting your dick off and moaning about the pain of the world is normal if you are entitled enough.  Work became an optional oppression.  Work was not something only Mexicans did the way entitled game playing button pushing thumbs think of work now.  Yes America is racist that way.  And more racist than it used to be.

The day I realized I was not 'special' was an important day in my life.  Much of what is adult in me was born that day.  If I had never left home I'm not sure I would have reached that maturity.  Certainly not as quickly.  A child needs a good home life, but someone who never leaves home remains a child in many ways.  Adult children do not learn that what you do, or not do, is on you.

I'll give some sympathy to the suffering parents.  Nobody else will.

The exceptions, children who are responsible and recognize they might actually be a hardship on their parents make my case.  You have to look hard for them.

* The article is about Europe.  In America a Pew Research Center survey found that around one-third of U.S. adults ages 18-34 live with their parents. Financial independence varies significantly within this group; while some are employed, others are not fully independent or are receiving financial support from their parents.

** Half of that third is as happy as a clam in mud,  having no desire to wake up early and change the situation.  I figure the author knew that saying such a thing directly would not make it across the edit desk.  Hence 'some are employed others are not'.  Mainstream articles have to be all happy happy joy joy.  But this is the Diner and we are shadow banned in Google searches.  There is no reason not to speak our mind.  And be honest.

No doubt, there are deadbeat, ne'er-do-well bums in every generation who never move out and remain as parasite on their parents for their entire lives, not just in their 20s.  This article isn't about them.  It's about 20 somethings who went to college, have jobs and STILL can't afford to move out.

RE

I make a separate post to comment on exponential housing.

The number of commercial buildings which have been built in the last ten years have enough floor space to house all of WA States homeless population.  I am not saying the space should, this is a raw observation about floor space only.  A measurement.  A measurement which says the physical ability to keep up with housing needs is not a material consideration.  It is a political issue and exponential growth has nothing to do with it.

The floor space I mention uses polished concrete metal and exotic woods.  Metal studs are used in the walls and high end HVAC moderates climate.  This is expensive floor space and not the kind of floor space that is used in residential construction generally.  However high end Seattle Homes are built to the same standards now.  It is what inequality does don't you know.

Working every weekend enterprising men used to build their own homes in about five years.  Every weekend and after work.  As soon as part of it was habitable a family would move in.  Building homes that way keeps up with exponential growth because everyone builds their own home.  All excess money went into building materials, but in the 70's building materials were cheap enough that a working man could buy building materials almost as fast as he could use them.  Sometimes work would have to pause while money was earned.

Without subsidy no way does a working man earn money to buy building materials now.  A particular demographic used the build your own trick.  Clock punchers who did not have regular overtime and earned a union wage.  Salaried people had a hard time finding the time.  Building your own was not something everyone could do, but some could and that is my point.  Human labor can keep up with housing needs.

In a rational society.

Quote from: RE on May 21, 2024, 09:37 AMNo doubt, there are deadbeat, ne'er-do-well bums in every generation who never move out and remain as parasite on their parents for their entire lives, not just in their 20s.  This article isn't about them.  It's about 20 somethings who went to college, have jobs and STILL can't afford to move out.

RE

I understand what you are saying but I have a dimmer view of human nature than you do so I do not agree.  The average person is about as creative as a 180 lb parrot.  Monkey see, monkey do defines human behavior.  Deadbeat, ne'er-do-well bums now hide in plain sight in a way which would have been intolerable in the past.

Thrill seeking is a mark of the ne'er-do-well, and America society in general has been reduced to thrill seeking.  Thrill seeking does not have to be as dramatic as parachuting out of airplanes.  It can be as simple as keeping a bar stool warm every night.  It can be as simple as having a 'bucket list'.  It is endless pursuit of pleasure and avoidance of responsibility.  It is consumerism.  I am what I use, and the experiences I have.  That is all I am.  A cog in a machine that defecates.

In this post I point no fingers at the ne'er-do-well.  Society in general has lost its way and the sad fact is most people, all of us at some time, need leaders.

People need structure.  It is a fact and some need more structure than others.  If the social goal is to live no differently than the ne'er-do-well at the end of life, more of the ne'er-do-well we shall have.  People copy, it is what people do.  Give them bad shit to copy and that is exactly what they will do.

Give them a bad leader and they follow.

Adolph before he fell with his fellow misfits was a total slacker who never had a job.  All he could do was couch surf.  As fate would have it, his talent as a speaker made him spokesman for a movement.  He never actually did any work himself.  Hitler wrote Mein Kampf with a guidance and help under pressure.  The way Trump would write a book.  The following photos show Hitler in prison when he told 'his story'.  Hitler was not capable of controlling himself enough to write Mein Kampf by himself.  He had to be kept on track.

(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.prod.www.spiegel.de%2Fimages%2Ffdb5f954-0001-0004-0000-000000102276_w520_r0.6462585034013606_fpx49.98_fpy32.3.jpg&f=1&nofb=1&ipt=b5e96c648e2d510156d5fe4d68d73bc3e1028675a51052e125f3c549b9ad88b7&ipo=images)(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.francetvinfo.fr%2Fpictures%2F6etd5lb-GrYPbaFxKXXIvd_Pa7Y%2Ffit-in%2F540x%2F2018%2F11%2F27%2FA.-Hitler-gauche-R.-Hess-2e-gauche-dans-prison-Landsberg.jpg&f=1&nofb=1&ipt=839242a5524f257881197dae32dc28701f6e19484ea4a898f62a6e006a4adfa3&ipo=images) 

Prison was a well kept apartment with visitors.  He was given a typewriter and shown how to use it.  Hitler was in truth, a deranged slacker with mental issues.  A magnet that attracted other deranged, with unfortunately far more actual talent.

Talent enough to sell a promise.  It was propaganda.  German factories were tooled for the military.  The 'people's car' was propaganda.

No German family would ever buy one.  Collapse came first, but that is not really the half of it.  The NAZI three ring circus was built on credit and the only way to not pay the bill was to start a war.  The bill was coming due. 
     The parallel money system which fueled military build up (and stimulated the economy) required redemption or the industrialists would not continue to welcome Nazi script which could only be used for business purposes.  Propaganda hid the working poor.  The war had to be started before everything was in place.  Before the NAZI Ponzi was exposed.  Hitler planned war, but Hitler's economic ponzi scheme really decided that war had to start when it did.

My NAZI shit takes the discussion in a different direction.  Returning to the slacker issue.  I go back to your original article.  Your original article ignores the corrosive effects of the situation in the same way that the corrosive effects of isolation on school age children during COVID was ignored.  We live in a petri-dish that produces dispossessed people by the millions.  Some shoot up schools if you do not believe me.  An article that only talks about economics regarding a social situation is brain dead.  Let that be your guide.

Fair enough, that is a good point about CRE.  Also true is luxury housing is overbuilt.

However, if you look at Japan where the population has actually been shrinking, not just growing slower, they have the opposite problem, whole towns with empty, overgrown houses.  It's also true in Italy, where they're selling houses for €1 that have been sitting empty.

So there's definitely a correlation between population growth and housing availability.  Also true that the DIY housebuilder is a dying breed, though NF here bucked the trend with that building his Doomstead.  He is of course in the building trades as a profession though, and not a white collar corporate drone.  DIY at all levels has nearly vanished, planned obsolescence and increasing complexity squeezed that nearly out of existence.  Back in the 50s & 60s, guys spent all their time working on their cars, that's where the term "Greasers" came from, for Grease Monkey.  When they started dropping computer chips in cars and you needed expensive diagnostic equipment to fix it, you had to bring it to the shop.  Now with Teslas, the shops can't even fix the batts.  TV repair shops are gone, when your Big Screen TV dies, you buy a new one.

So, yes, there are choices involved which have made the situation worse, but it remains true that new housing isn't being built fast enough, because housing for poor people isn't profitable.  Population growth has resulted in many more poor people than new rich people.  Rich people have just gotten richer, there aren't more of them by percentage.

RE

QuoteNew housing isn't being built fast enough, because housing for poor people isn't profitable.

That is my point.  A fact that is remedied by political will with material conditions regarding the ability to actually build shelter not being an issue.  Think of the cults that build big communal apartments.  While the preachers shares holy communion with the women, the the men build.

(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fbaylorlariat.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2013%2F04%2Fdavidian3-FTW2.jpg&f=1&nofb=1&ipt=c9b752467ba6d94f2f3d09b9055148ca6a215bbbdf0e40a5426eaeb19fcb2d75&ipo=images)

Before it was burned to the ground with people inside by the ATF, the community had built shelter.

True, but what is it that sapped Political Will from every last industrialized country on earth, from the FSoA to Oz, from the UK & Norway to France and Germany?  We had Political Will in the 60s for the Great Society, public housing was built in cities from NY to London to Paris.  Not very good housing, but it was built.  Could it be that Political Will is Directly Proportional to Per Capita Available Energy?  What is PCAE proportional to?  Population size and Resource availability.  Increasing Population & Decreasing Resources--->Decreasing Political Will---->Decreasing Affordable Housing.

Not only did it sap Political Will, it sapped the desire to procreate as well.  That's the psychological effect of over-population.  Political Will has been decreasing at an Exponential rate as well.  The worse the problems get, the less will there is to make the changes necessary to fix them.  That's the Inverse Proportionality you get from population overshoot.

RE

Here's an example of the inability to build enough infrastructure in a city built on the Suburban model and the use of the automobile with the rapid population increase.

Old cities like NY or Mexico City built before the automobile have had 8M people, and 20M in the surrounding Metroplex for decades.  DFW however is a sprawling metropolis of 2 cities combined, Dallas and Fort Worth all hooked together by ribbons of interstate highways and a ring road.

(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/90/a4/4c/90a44c3fcf3015310521b18e238c36de.jpg)

There's no real public transportation to speak of.  Distances are so vast even cycling around means you have to be a touring cyclist.  The city planning of ring road and N-S, E-W connectors was used all over the FSoA beginning in the 1950s with the Eisenhower Interstate. Atlanta, Indianapolis, St. Louis and Oklahoma City all have similar plans.  Here is Atlanta's famous "Spaghetti Junction":

(https://www.ajc.com/resizer/yCLaV9tv118koDSnvOLjDVrJ1XA=/fit-in/850x480/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/ajc/P3K2LJI6O2FJNXJEHTA72H5ZUU.jpg)

There's no more room to widen roads to accomodate more carz.  They would have to make the main thoroughfares double-decker, but even that wouldn't work because the local roads would all be overwhelmed.  I drove all these roads in my big rig 30 years ago.  The traffic was bad then.  I can't imagine how bad it is now.

This is REAL Limits to Growth.

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/dfw-cannot-build-out-of-traffic-troubles/3546490/

DFW Metroplex cannot 'build out' of traffic troubles

RE

Quote from: K-Dog on May 21, 2024, 08:32 AMChildren who do not leave home do not contribute to maintaining the home or offsetting expenses.

Says who? I understand the rule of us geriatrics not discussing "them", but this statement makes no sense in light of experience.

Quote from: TDoS on Feb 20, 2025, 05:20 PM

Quote from: K-Dog on May 21, 2024, 08:32 AMChildren who do not leave home do not contribute to maintaining the home or offsetting expenses.

Says who? I understand the rule of us geriatrics not discussing "them", but this statement makes no sense in light of experience.

Says me, and we need the whole quote.

QuoteChildren who do not leave home do not contribute to maintaining the home or offsetting expenses.  There is no magic moment when they have an epiphany telling them it is time to stop being a useless eater and pull their weight.

Road to Damascus moments are never a given, so there really is not much to defend here.  We are living in a time where the necessities in life are taken for granted.  Previous generations had more of a 'but for the grace of god go we' sort of attitude.  They were pragmatic, and while superstitious they did not believe in magic.  Like stuff just happens.
    Growing up in the geriatric generation and living at home with your parents meant you were a 'wuse'.  Something was wrong with you , and you were shunned.  People who did not take care of their own shit were looked down upon.  But somewhere in our land of unearned riches this all changed.  Once working kids were shown the door at 18.  That was the way it was.  Graduate high school and you were on your own.  You were no longer a child, you were an adult.  Like it or not.  Now things have changed, and a free ride is not looked down upon.
    Society moved into phase where the values of individual work and sacrifice represented by previous generations are considered outdated and irrelevant by current culture.  Consumption and instant gratification now define American values.  This has been true for a while, but we have entered a terminal phase.

    Concerning the need for the whole quote.

QuoteThere is no magic moment when they have an epiphany

    Circumstances make men.  In extended adolescence men cannot be made.

* Your personal experience may be different, and that is fine.  My statement is a sweeping generalization of social conditions and is not meant to be personal.  In personal circumstances YMMV.  Specifically my statement came from the results of a study that examined how much children who worked but lived at home contributed to the household compared to those who lived at home without a job.  Those who worked contributed in all ways more than young men who did not, and we are not talking about money.  This is a studied fact.

(https://equitablegrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/prime-age-male-LFPR-EPOP.png)

And my sweeping generalization is factual. 

In the Vietnam era, college went from something only the children of the elite attend to a requirement for getting any kind of white collar job.  Many new community colleges opened up which didn't have dorms.   Then in the 80s they raised the drinking age from 18 to 21.  This effectively extended adolescence from 18 to 21.

In the 00's, to get a good white collar job you needed a minimum of a Master's, plus the housing market got tight.  Finish your MS you're ~25 and loaded with debt.  You move back home while you job search.  If you're lucky you find a job that pays enough to afford an apartment after 1-2yrs at home.  You're 26 if everything went smooth and you didn't take a year off to see the world.

RE

Quote from: K-Dog on Feb 20, 2025, 07:31 PM

QuoteThere is no magic moment when they have an epiphany

Circumstances make men.  In extended adolescence men cannot be made.
* Your personal experience may be different, and that is fine.

This I can buy. As my personal experience is NOT different.

Circumstances most certainly made me the man I am today. Age of 19 I believe, so the timing of your overall argument seems reasonable.

Getting established i.e. getting a good job that pays well, a house and all the big milestones that are associated with adulthood is getting harder. Even if one is hardworking and willing to do the grind it is not likely you will be able to complete these steps before you are in your 30s. I am not convinced this generation is less mature than previous ones. People are simply a product of their times and given the lack of opportunities it is harder to get ahead. This lack of opportunities can also lead to people simply abandoning common convention aka the journey of life.

What I mean by the journey of life is people no longer see the point in owning a house, the value of car ownership is less important today than it was in the 80s. From what I have heard this is true even in the youth of the US. More and more people are eschewing kids and marriage as the costs (financial, emotional) are too high. To some this refusal to follow lifes common path may be seen as act of immaturity but to others is simply a practical decision given the circumstances of the time. I don't think people are extrinsically less mature than before; they are simply responding to the prevailing conditions of today. The way they are acting is going against the historic norms and it is this decision not to follow the "chosen path" that is what make people question their maturity.

Maybe it is doom in me that is speaking but I think this environment is actually hostile to people forming families having kids and housing all your family in one big home. Just look what was said in the previous posts; you now need a degree even a masters to get something that resembles a middle class job. After that you need a few years of hard work to get yourself on a sound financial footing. Now ask me after doing all that how old will you be?

After you achieve all that you then need to save for a deposit on a house and if you are lucky (unlucky?) save for a wedding. My bet is after you achieve all that you will be in your early to mid 30s. Now if you are a woman how many years of fertility would you have left? This idea of having a white picket fence home, 2.1 kids and a dog just gets harder and harder to get as time passes.

Let's not forget the costs of raising a child (never mind several) is skyrocketing. As much as people look fondly on free range children it is simply not tolerated in modern society, children MUST be supervised at all times and you will be sent to child services if you let them loose without adult supervision too often. At the very least people will look down on your neglectful parenting style. Guess what? Clubs and child minders etc cost a bomb.

The fact this is a global phenomenon should tell you this is a systemic issue and is an not issue simply rooted in the youth being immature. It is a common past time to bash the young but I think those thoughts are largely mistaken and short sighted as people making such judgements often fail to consider all the aspects that are in play these days. This whole swing to right/populist voting is a big sign people (on a deep level) see the system as broken. The insane cost of living is a product of overpopulation which is again a problem of decreasing per capita energy consumption. You can't resolve these problems no matter what politician you install. Problem is penny hasn't dropped on last point for most of society. Given what is happening now I can only wonder what people will do when they realize the economy is broken on a fundamental level...

Quote from: monsta666 on Feb 21, 2025, 11:26 PMGiven what is happening now I can only wonder what people will do when they realize the economy is broken on a fundamental level...

By the time most of them realize it, it will be too late to do much more than roll over and die.

As you might suspect from my prior post on this topic, we both see this from the same POV.  For the most part, the lengthening time for a person to become independent of their parents is a direct result of the economic barriers presented by all the so-called "markers" of maturity.   Buying a house and raising kids is EXPENSIVE.  If you're reasonably intelligent and pragmatic, you won't do either one until you are pretty certain you'll be able to afford it long term.  How secure is your new career and potential for advancement.?  How stable is the general economy around you?

Besides economics, on the social end the women also are beginning careers, since even if you plan on marriage and kids, you'll need 2 incomes to save for the down payment.  So again, how long out of school does it take to establish yourself in some profession so you're not entry-level?  Say 5 years.  So if you got your Master's at 25, you're 30 before you could think of taking maybe 2 years off for the 1st kid, which has a learning curve of its own.  So why get married before you're ready to put one in the oven?  There's no other real good reason to tie yourself up with a marriage contract, just live together.

Finally, back on the economic end there's the Elephant in the Room.  Student Debt.  No prior generation has had to start out with such a huge hole to dig out of.  Only the children of 1%ers who at least helped to keep the tally under 6 figures can get out from under that in less than a decade.  I talked with the dentist here, both she and her partner who is also a dentist are almost 30 and still have a combined debt over $100K left to pay off.  Probably 5 more years before they have enough to sytart their own practice.  They won't buy a house until after that.

The fact this is a systemic problem should be obvious from the fact the situation is the same in all the industrialized countries.  Unless you come from rich parents, getting started in life takes a LONG time.

RE

Quote from: RE on Feb 22, 2025, 05:22 AM

Quote from: monsta666 on Feb 21, 2025, 11:26 PMGiven what is happening now I can only wonder what people will do when they realize the economy is broken on a fundamental level...

By the time most of them realize it, it will be too late to do much more than roll over and die.

As you might suspect from my prior post on this topic, we both see this from the same POV.

I'm more interested in K-Dogs point of view, as you and Monsta appear to be generalizing about children, as opposed to personal experience.

I think Monsta's overall view, based on likely/unlikely is reaosnable, but the chosen probability expression is not definitive. I do believe things might be harder for the younger generations, and most of the speculation Monsta has done seems reasonable. K-Dog and I both mght offer a fine tuning of the concepts obviously, for better or worse.

Certainly a direct determining factor is that children are not raised in a vacuum, or by society at large. Parents themselves are a variable that can't be ignored, or discounted. They alone could make the difference between a normal, likely outcome as expressed by Monsta...or most certainly not. Quite the independent variable in the mix, and one with the ability to completely skew the results even with the more difficult conditions of today (however we might describe "difficult").

Quote from: REFor the most part, the lengthening time for a person to become independent of their parents is a direct result of the economic barriers presented by all the so-called "markers" of maturity.  Buying a house and raising kids is EXPENSIVE.  If you're reasonably intelligent and pragmatic, you won't do either one until you are pretty certain you'll be able to afford it long term.  How secure is your new career and potential for advancement.?  How stable is the general economy around you?

Or a direct result of parents who know well what you just wrote...and tip the scales in the favor of their children.

Quote from: REFinally, back on the economic end there's the Elephant in the Room.  Student Debt.  No prior generation has had to start out with such a huge hole to dig out of.

From personal experience I can't say this is an absolute. Like a farm boy without a pot to piss in decades ago could go to college any other way.

A potential Illuminati Prince undoubtly might think such things are unncessary....poor farm boys certainly didn't have anyone unrolling a college education without debt in front of them...even in "way back" times.

Quote from: TDoS on Feb 22, 2025, 01:17 PMA potential Illuminati Prince undoubtly might think such things are unncessary....

Your narrative of my childhood is a complete fiction.

My parents are both Depression era children of poor immigrants.  My father was the first person to go to college of anyone on both sides.  He went to Pace College in NYC on the GI Bill.  He got into the Executivee Training Program at Chase with 2 other guys.  When I was born, we lived in an attached house in the working class section of Queens.  Lower middle class salary at the time.

He made it to VP in the International Dept and was posted to Brazil.  On an American ssalary in the 60s you could hire poor domestic help from the favelas.  This was as close to Illuminati as I got in those years.  My parents split up while in Brazil, and my mom brought me back to NY where we lived in a 1 1 bedroom apt.  She had $500 to live on until the divorce got finalized.  My dad put the down payment on a house in Queens, which my mom struggled to pay off for 25 years as a clerical worker with a HSE  Education.

When college came round, my dad welshed on paying for it, so I had to work-study and take loans to supplement my scholarship.  Had I known he was going to do that, I would have gone to CUNY. not Columbia.  I was always broke.

There was no silver spoon for me growing up in Queens, I mowed lawns and delivered groceries on my bike for spending money. It was an hour and a half commute each way on the subway for me to go to Stuyvesant.  I couldn't join any after school clubs or activities because it took so long.  I had virtually no friends.  Basically, life sucked from age 10 to 16 for me.  When I finally got out to go to college, I went wild with drugs and girls.  School was easy for me, mostly I didn't go to class just crammed for tests.

Anyhow my life has nothing to do with the problems of the current generation, and neither does yours.

RE

Quote from: RE on Feb 22, 2025, 02:23 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Feb 22, 2025, 01:17 PMA potential Illuminati Prince undoubtly might think such things are unncessary....

Your narrative of my childhood is a complete fiction.

If memory serves, you were the one who mentioned being "groomed" by the Illuminati. I remembered the word. I believe it was of a reference to what happened sometime during your high school years?

Anything I know about your background in any way came from you personally.

Quote from: REHe made it to VP in the International Dept and was posted to Brazil.  On an American ssalary in the 60s you could hire poor domestic help from the favelas.  This was as close to Illuminati as I got in those years.  My parents split up while in Brazil, and my mom brought me back to NY where we lived in a 1 1 bedroom apt.  She had $500 to live on until the divorce got finalized.  My dad put the down payment on a house in Queens, which my mom struggled to pay off for 25 years as a clerical worker with a HSE  Education. When college came round, my dad welshed on paying for it, so I had to work-study and take loans to supplement my scholarship.  Had I known he was going to do that, I would have gone to CUNY. not Columbia.  I was always broke. There was no silver spoon for me growing up in Queens, I mowed lawns and delivered groceries on my bike for spending money. It was an hour and a half commute each way on the subway for me to go to Stuyvesant.  I couldn't join any after school clubs or activities because it took so long.  I had virtually no friends.  Basically, life sucked from age 10 to 16 for me.  When I finally got out to go to college, I went wild with drugs and girls.  School was easy for me, mostly I didn't go to class just crammed for tests.

Remember when we discussed my recent experience with suits? You mentioned your extensive experience with them as a young man, how your father had taken you with him to all sorts of meetings and whatnot where you learned about them and their characteristics and whatnot?

How did this work out in between mowing lawns and being broke and delivering groceries? 3 hours of commuting during the school week? The pirate radio? No time for after school activities....but heading out to watch big deals get done with dad happened enough to teach you all you needed to know about suits?

I always thought that sort of backed up your Illuminati grooming claim in your high school and college years, as opposed to now where it is like....where did you even find the TIME?

Quote from: REAnyhow my life has nothing to do with the problems of the current generation, and neither does yours.
RE

Oh, I agree to some extent, but I do have experience with the current generation up close and personal. You never spawned, so you are free and clear of it all. But the "problems" of the current generations aren't a given, as Monsta said they fall into the probability of "more likely than unlikely", and there is that parent factor. No, not just the rich versus poor angle, but the REAL parents versus another brand of helicopter ones, or those who didn't even want the kids in the first place. Hey, post Vietnam sex stopped being a dirty word and abortions were legal and it was all smoking reefer and whatever other hedonistic lifestyles came along. As did the consequences of free love and birth control and...I dunno....more idiot adults having kids?

Sure, things got more expensive in terms of raising them and whatnot (EVERYTHING got more expensive, not just kid raising), but I find it hard to discount the behavior of the prior generations raising them as part of the causal factor here.

The "grooming" you refer to was during the years in Brazil, playing chess against my dad's associates and state department apparatchiks and doing math tricks.  Later on I spent a couple of years being tested by psychologists and jumping through a variety of hoops.   All through those years at the various parties and picnics, I observed the behavior and dress of all the people involved, bankers, state dept, CIA and military.  I'm a good observer.

RE

Quote from: RE on Feb 22, 2025, 08:40 PMThe "grooming" you refer to was during the years in Brazil, playing chess against my dad's associates and state department apparatchiks and doing math tricks.  Later on I spent a couple of years being tested by psychologists and jumping through a variety of hoops.   All through those years at the various parties and picnics, I observed the behavior and dress of all the people involved, bankers, state dept, CIA and military.  I'm a good observer.

RE

I see. So your insight is related to the more social aspects of how the movers and shakers behave, as opposed to being in the  room when they are going at the details hammer and tongs? I'm trying to think of any muliti-corporate or multi-national deal where that end of the deal was happening in a social environment. Social environemnts tended to be before we went into combat in some conference room, or after the details were hammered out among the financial/technical/legal heads of departments and their CEO.

Obviously our experience was gained in different decades and even centuries, and from different perspectives.

For that time period, absolutely.  Then you add in my own time wearing the uniform working at Merrill and Drexel.  Didn't spend decades in the monkey suit, but the behaviors didn't change.  Same arrogance and self importance.

RE

Quote from: RE on Feb 23, 2025, 11:36 AMFor that time period, absolutely.  Then you add in my own time wearing the uniform working at Merrill and Drexel.  Didn't spend decades in the monkey suit, but the behaviors didn't change.  Same arrogance and self importance.
RE

So...arrogance and self importance and....bankruptcy? Any correlation there?

Quote from: TDoS on Feb 23, 2025, 12:52 PMSo...arrogance and self importance and....bankruptcy? Any correlation there?

Dunno if there is a correlation between the frequency of bankruptcy by dress code, but I suspect a correlation by magnitude.  Suits have higher incomes, so the bankruptcies would tend to be bigger.

RE

There are a few points I would respectfully submit on this topic, if I may. Actually, as there are no preconditions preventing me making these points I not just would, but WILL make them!

For most of human history, most people have not lived 'the American/western dream' or variation on it, meaning stable well paid employment taking a 25 year mortgage to own their own home. Ill leave marriage and children aside, despite it being part of the white picket fence dream, as most people did still get married and have children for the duration of civilization and even pre-civilization. Just focussing on owning a property,'A' being singular, not plural.

This is something that I think became the norm for the majority only post WW2. Prior to that it seems at least half the people rented in an urban area or were housed/accommodated by a land owner in a rural area. If you go back a little further to the 19th C, Im guessing around 80% did not own their own property, certainly not one dwelling per nuclear family which is 'the dream'.

One thing we see in recent decades, at least since the beginning of the 21st C, is the single generation family home being signed over to a nursing home and its value being deducted at rates of on average, a thousand dollars a week. If your home was worth 400k you had only 8 years of money to give over, which is usually enough.
if you did not own A home and rented on a pension and/or retirement funds, the govt still takes care of you if you need to go to aged care.

What then is the benefit of paying off the property, other than:
A period of owning it clear and free in retirement, say from 55 to 75 if you took out a 25 year mortgage at age 30.
If you die inside 5 yrs of going into aged care, still having some value in the property to leave to beneficiaries.

There are pros and cons to renting vs owning, which I won't go into here as you probably already are aware of those.

People complain of isolation and loneliness epidemics. More communal living counteracts that, whether people have flatmates/housemates or live with parents and grandparents. Of course its not a definite given that living with more people is always better, but overall there is more company and support all round. Clans, come tribes are also a form of physical security, as relying on law abiding and law enforcement is also a relatively recent development.

Mortgages are 30 yrs with 20% deposit typically now. For men stupid enough to still get married or defacto cohabit in todays legal system, theres a better than even chance everything he put into it is going to be lost in seperation or divorce. That is the biggest reason for "the young generation" increasingly not getting married and buying a house.

I think it was 65% of men 30 and under, that's near enough 2/3 are single now. this is a little hazy on the exact numbers, but predicted that by 2030 50% of women will be single  and childless. Those were from the US, but can generalise across western countries. What never gets broken down is the racial split in that, as recent immigrants are forming families far more than people 'born here'. If they were to look at Aframerican and Anglo only, that would probably blow out to 65% of women.

"The young Generation" in this discussion seems too ill defined. is it Millennials, Gen Z, or both? How about 35 and under. 40 is not only not young but could have been looking at property prices from 2015 or 2010 which would be half what they are today. Thats a very different level of difficulty with general cost of living and inflation.

A 40 year old woman really isn't going to have children, even if she gets married at that age either to fulfil The Dream.

So limiting 'the young generation' to 35 and under, or 1990 and over, how does it play out? Are we seeing high flying boss babes like the delta air, DC crash blackhawk and malaysian chopper crash credentialed career girl crews unable to find men making more than themselves to marry. Are they getting their ideas on what men are worthy from tiktok and Instagram influencers (of each other) instead of mutual friends, their mother and father? Are the regular guys without a Model Y or movie star smile, largely not even trying? while a cadre of usual suspects is responsible for all the finger wagging rants on getting ghosted and guys 'not knowing how to follow up'.

 There are a hell of a lot of people with the ordinary jobs on utube saying theyre quitting and working is a waste of time, or explaining why everyone is doing so. I get that it barely makes ends meet, companies and conpany men who work for them are a nightmare. I never see them explain how the bills are going to get paid once they do that though. I guess they don't have a mortgage is half of the how.

Quote from: Goldernen Oxernen on Feb 23, 2025, 07:19 PMI never see them explain how the bills are going to get paid once they do that though.

"Quitting working" is a little misleading.  What they are quitting are typical career type jobs.  They find the money to get by in a variety of ways.

1- "Gig" jobs:  These are easy to get and quit, then find another when you run short of funds. Like Uber or Instacart.  Low paying, but unmarried and often couch surfing they have low expenses.

2- Seasonal work:  Up here, they'll work pn a fishing boat in summer and plow snow in winter.  Or work in  the ourist trade or construction in summer, and snowbird to FL in winter.

3- "Side Hustles": Usually some internet scheme.  A Gen Z couple I met traded high priced Sneakers onver the net.  Or they have a Podcast or are Tattoo artists. etc.

4- Mooching:  If they run short, they take periodic donations from retired Boomer parent

5- Gambling-  Professional Poker playin is popular.  Making book on sportss betting also.

6- Illegal shit:  Drugs, Burglary, Prostitution, Bootlegging, Scalping, Gang Protection rackets etc

RE

Quote from: RE on Feb 23, 2025, 03:19 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Feb 23, 2025, 12:52 PMSo...arrogance and self importance and....bankruptcy? Any correlation there?

Dunno if there is a correlation between the frequency of bankruptcy by dress code, but I suspect a correlation by magnitude.  Suits have higher incomes, so the bankruptcies would tend to be bigger.

RE

I said arrogance and self importance...I'm not much for confusing ones clothing with the quality of one's ability. Or lack thereof.

Given the opportunity I use exactly that confusion IRL to sort the wheat from the chaff. I love shorts, tennis shoes and t-shirts with some inane slogan or another on it should the opportunity present itself.

Quote from: Goldernen Oxernen on Feb 23, 2025, 07:19 PMThere are a hell of a lot of people with the ordinary jobs on utube saying theyre quitting and working is a waste of time, or explaining why everyone is doing so. I get that it barely makes ends meet, companies and conpany men who work for them are a nightmare. I never see them explain how the bills are going to get paid once they do that though. I guess they don't have a mortgage is half of the how.

The wife says Boob Tubers make mondo $$ off the advertising dollars they make doing and saying stupid things. She wants to be one of them, but can't think of enough stupid or inane things to say.

With rent being what it is nowadays, I'm not sure there is much difference in overall cost between mortgages and renting in my area. Repairs and whatnot sure, but when a rental worth $600K goes for $3000/month and a 30-yr mortgage on $600K is maybe $3200, seems like a wash.

Quote from: TDoS on Feb 24, 2025, 07:13 AM

Quote from: Goldernen Oxernen on Feb 23, 2025, 07:19 PMThere are a hell of a lot of people with the ordinary jobs on utube saying theyre quitting and working is a waste of time, or explaining why everyone is doing so. I get that it barely makes ends meet, companies and conpany men who work for them are a nightmare. I never see them explain how the bills are going to get paid once they do that though. I guess they don't have a mortgage is half of the how.

The wife says Boob Tubers make mondo $$ off the advertising dollars they make doing and saying stupid things. She wants to be one of them, but can't think of enough stupid or inane things to say.

With rent being what it is nowadays, I'm not sure there is much difference in overall cost between mortgages and renting in my area. Repairs and whatnot sure, but when a rental worth $600K goes for $3000/month and a 30-yr mortgage on $600K is maybe $3200, seems like a wash.

I just think too much of a big deal is being made of no longer affording the American Dream for the avg person. Its an artifact of the permanent position/golden handshake for a career at one company and trade unions making relatively unskilled labour into a new high standard of living. That went hand in hand with about a century of boom times and super abundant energy. There was no great stress and burden to buying your small 3x1 along with a big new car at least once a decade for no more than half of their pay cheque. People did this typically with a wife working part time or not at all.

Today probably half the people work temporary contract or casual. Paying 250$ a week for a room in a 3 bedroom house, being a third of that 3000$/ month rent is not a giant weight on the shoulders of the avg single person on an avg income. We just need to let go of the idea it makes them a loser and they haven't made it in life if they don't have their own apartment or house. Students always share apartments and it contributes to good times and making friends.

People spent thousands of years building their own dwellings with their own hands and in India, africa, Asia, maybe Eastern Europe as well they still do. They might have had a dirt floor and grass roof in the past or today a tin roof with no ceiling and insulation. They went and collected building stones or cut down trees. If they bought building materials,or brought in specialist experts like a plasterer, they paid cash they had saved. Mostly nobody got paid in the past, the community just slaughtered a cow to feed a few people all pitching in. It was not luxurious, but neither was anyone elses abode or accommodation among your friends and family to be comparing against. No giant weight around the neck, enslaved to a bank for 3/4 of your take home income for the rest of your working years and always one email away from not having next months installment.

Quote from: Goldernen Oxernen on Feb 25, 2025, 04:40 PMI just think too much of a big deal is being made of no longer affording the American Dream for the avg person. Its an artifact of the permanent position/golden handshake for a career at one company and trade unions making relatively unskilled labour into a new high standard of living. That went hand in hand with about a century of boom times and super abundant energy. There was no great stress and burden to buying your small 3x1 along with a big new car at least once a decade for no more than half of their pay cheque. People did this typically with a wife working part time or not at all.

I think post WWII America, its position, standing and non-infrastructure destruction was a one off.

And then, along the way, things changed. Because...things don't stay the same. The rest of the world rebuilt, and we helped them, and that generated the manufacturing economy that was quite the envy of the world for a long time.

And nowadays, things are different. Good, bad or indifferent, evolution is all about adapt or die.

Or, in modern America, the old geezers talk about the "good ol days" and younglings make fun of us, and there are plenty left out just as there are a few with far MORE than plenty for themselves.

Have no fear though....personal doom will get us all soon...and it'll be their problem. All us geezers here got ours. 

Quote from: Goldernen Oxernen on Feb 25, 2025, 04:40 PMPaying 250$ a week for a room in a 3 bedroom house, being a third of that 3000$/ month rent is not a giant weight on the shoulders of the avg single person on an avg income.

You're living in the past.  1 bedroom apts rent for $3000/mo.  Houses go $5000 and up.

RE

Quote from: RE on Feb 25, 2025, 08:53 PM

Quote from: Goldernen Oxernen on Feb 25, 2025, 04:40 PMPaying 250$ a week for a room in a 3 bedroom house, being a third of that 3000$/ month rent is not a giant weight on the shoulders of the avg single person on an avg income.

You're living in the past.  1 bedroom apts rent for $3000/mo.  Houses go $5000 and up.

RE

TDOS should squeeze his tennants more then.

The 1br has to be 'up to' rather than 'and up' though. Between a fold out bed and bunkbed, 3k$ is still ok for 3 people at 250$/week each.

Quote from: RE on Feb 25, 2025, 08:53 PMYou're living in the past.  1 bedroom apts rent for $3000/mo.  Houses go $5000 and up.
RE

Major metro downtown 1 bedroom apartment rent maybe $1800/month. Single space garage parking included. Looked to be young professionals when examining them with .....family.....

1-2 bedroom, 1300 sq feet, included garage townhomes, $270k, mortgage at about $2200? Estimating slighty.

$3500/month mortgage $610k house, 3.5% down.

Most expensive non-coastal city in the US. All numbers on signed contracts within past 18 months or so, so reasonably current information.

I remember when Alaska was REAL expensive, back in the day, compared to every other place I ever looked at working. Last time I checked, it looked like the rest of the world just caught up.

TDoS doesn't do real estate. Don't like it, owning, renting, fixing, selling it, it always feels...dirty.

Quote from: Goldernen Oxernen on Feb 25, 2025, 10:03 PM

Quote from: RE on Feb 25, 2025, 08:53 PM

Quote from: Goldernen Oxernen on Feb 25, 2025, 04:40 PMPaying 250$ a week for a room in a 3 bedroom house, being a third of that 3000$/ month rent is not a giant weight on the shoulders of the avg single person on an avg income.

You're living in the past.  1 bedroom apts rent for $3000/mo.  Houses go $5000 and up.

RE

TDOS should squeeze his tennants more then.

The 1br has to be 'up to' rather than 'and up' though. Between a fold out bed and bunkbed, 3k$ is still ok for 3 people at 250$/week each.

I get your point of view.  You consider people capable of getting their shit together and making things work.  Lower housing expenses, find a roommate.  No problemo.  Simply get thy shit together.  Personally my housing situation is not a concern at this time.  And part of keeping my shit together is not messing up a good thing.  Making bank while I still can.

But not everyone can get their shit together.  Some people despite being considered human, need to have everything planned out for them.  Without a script they have no fucking clue.  Some people also have toxic personalities.  Finding a roommate is impossible for them.

It is a situation full of contradictions, where personal flaws can cause financial ruin.

Quote from: K-Dog on Feb 26, 2025, 11:16 AMI get your point of view.  You consider people capable of getting their shit together and making things work.  Lower housing expenses, find a roommate.  No problemo.  Simply get thy shit together.  Personally my housing situation is not a concern at this time.  And part of keeping my shit together is not messing up a good thing.  Making bank while I still can.

But not everyone can get their shit together.  Some people despite being considered human, need to have everything planned out for them.  Without a script they have no fucking clue.  Some people also have toxic personalities.  Finding a roommate is impossible for them.

It is a situation full of contradictions, where personal flaws can cause financial ruin.

Yes.'people' made clear in the full post, not just the quote, here not interchangeable with 'a person' can get their shit together. From people come communities and from communities comes culture. From culture comes values, expectations and responsibilities and ultimately if necessary, enforcement and punishment of toxic personalities. If You haven't helped out in any past barn raisins, one to house You won't happen. 

I in fact have monumental concerns about my housing situation, the cunning have thus dispossessed the guileless since Jacob and Esau.  Im not part of the demographic in question though, wheres THEIR GI bill half acre and rumbling V8?

Quote from: K-Dog on Feb 26, 2025, 11:16 AMMaking bank while I still can.

At your age? Why? What's the matter with doing the retiree gig full time?

Quote from: TDoS on Feb 26, 2025, 05:08 PM

Quote from: K-Dog on Feb 26, 2025, 11:16 AMMaking bank while I still can.

At your age? Why? What's the matter with doing the retiree gig full time?

In a sense you are right.  On the other hand the small amount my McJob pays makes a significant difference in lifestyle, and 'huffin the bale' makes for a remarkably physically fit fossil.  There are downsides and upsides as in any situation.  And best way for retired fossils to keep mentally fit is physical exercise.  Ask a doctor about that, and they will agree.  The exercise makes for healthy circulation.  The brain likes exercise better than crossword puzzles.

About 20% of people plan on working after retirement but only 10% do.  Physical restraints kill the dream of half of people who want to keep working in retirement.  That is my guess for the reason, so when I say:

QuoteMaking bank while I still can.

I mean it.  The day will come when I can't work.  Youth and vigor will do me in.

One one hand you are absolutely right.  I do have more retirement savings than the median American.  On the other hand that means absolutely nothing.  Most Americans have jack shit saved for retirement.  I do have more than jack shit, but I do not have as much as Jack has.  But since I am able to save something, my stash is growing instead of slowly shrinking as would be the case if I were not working.  Considering that fact puts me more way more ahead at the end of a year than I would otherwise be.

I know of one Republican who 'lost 100K under Biden'.  He thinks Trump will 'fix things'.  My prediction is at the end of four more years of Trump the asshole will be down 200K more and I will be up 100K should we both still be kicking.  Fear of what rich lame brain white whale assholes may do to fuck the rest of us over next keeps me working.

I'm worried about RE, the racist white whales currently running the show may soon do him in.  His situation is only as resilient as the government is.  These days that is not saying much.

Quote from: TDoS on Feb 26, 2025, 05:08 PM

Quote from: K-Dog on Feb 26, 2025, 11:16 AMMaking bank while I still can.

At your age? Why? What's the matter with doing the retiree gig full time?

I thought he meant this is what I think Doh!

Quote from: K-Dog on Feb 27, 2025, 04:58 AMI'm worried about RE, the racist white whales currently running the show may soon do him in.  His situation is only as resilient as the government is.  These days that is not saying much.

His options are certainly limited. I find it unlikely that in 4 years our Dear Leader will torpedo enough of the country/economy to degrade it to the point where they are emptying out the cripple care facilities and letting them duke it out with the non-crippled homeless for dumpster scraps.

It will be interesting to see how it develops.  In my favor here are demographics, the sheer number of people who are currently covered by Medicaid who would be unable to pay the outrageous prices charged by care facilities that warehouse the old and crippled until they expire.  We're not talking a few thousand federal workers here, it's millions of people.

Besides the direct recipients, the industry that depends on us as the source of their profits is huge. Thousands of doctors and nurses get their paychecks from this business, along with administrators and corporate board of directors.  So a complete defunding would create total chaos, which CONgress critters are aware of.

I expect to see some cuts at the federal level with states forced to pick up more of the tab themselves.  Reimbursement rates probably get shaved and staff ratios will get even worse.  Food will get worse.  I seriously doubt I'll be out on the street at this point.  A lot of people would have to go before me who are less of a basket case.

Under the worst case scenario,  I have a Plan B and Plan C alternatives to try.  Not there yet though.

RE