I thought we were running out of affordable fossil fuels and bad stuff was supposed to happen. Are we there yet?

Quote from: ed_from on Jul 31, 2023, 09:11 PMI thought we were running out of affordable fossil fuels and bad stuff was supposed to happen. Are we there yet?

Considering that I once bought gas for 17 cents a gallon in a gas war and getting to and from work now sucks up about an hour of the work shift, the answer is an unequivocal yes.

Youth has nothing to compare the present to.  The frog not noticing they are being boiled to death is an accurate portrayal of society.  Scenic vistas once destroyed are forgotten.

Old farts sayin -- Son I remember when.....

Don't get remembered.

The better question is how long ago did the bad stuff start?

Quote from: K-Dog on Aug 01, 2023, 12:37 AMThe better question is how long ago did the bad stuff start?

It was well underway by the time they paved paradise to put up a parking lot.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2595abcvh2M

RE

You could trace it back a little further though.  Breathing in Victorian era London was pretty unpleasant.





RE

If we try and go back too far we defeat our purpose.

Doom is a fact of life.  No matter how far back we go we find doom.  So why have the Doomstead if doom is just a fact of life!?

Because the kind of doom we concern ourselves with here has human roots.  Climate change, resource depletion. These are problems that humans caused themselves.  Doom as the result of human action or INACTION is our primary concern, though decent material concerning doom in general is welcome.

Breathing in Victorian era London was pretty unpleasant. certainly qualifies as human caused.

QuoteAs soon as I escaped from the oppressive atmosphere of the city, and from that awful odour of reeking kitchens which, when in use, pour forth a ruinous mess of steam and soot, I perceived at once that my health was mending... So I am my old self again, feeling now no wavering languor in my system, and no sluggishness in my brain.

Seneca AD 64-65

The point being to save as many as you can.

Doom is a human construct. All species degrade the environment but, due to our use of tools and, eventually, our use of ancient sunlight, humans have managed to bypass, for the moment, all ecosystem controls which usually keep species in check. The consequences are plain but, eventually, nature and physics will reimpose controls.

Quote from: Tonyprep on Aug 01, 2023, 03:30 PMAll species degrade the environment

That is a very specious argument.  All living things use energy to grow and they create waste in the process, but the waste product of one life form provides the energy and or building blocks for another.  Worms digest human waste, worm shit feeds plants, the waste product of photosynthesis is free oxygen which serves as the electron reciver for the krebs cycle which produces ATP which provides chemical energy for animals...round and round she goes.  It's a constant dissipative cycle that runs as long as the sun keeps providing the right amount of energy for the system to run, not too much or too little.

Homo Sap fit right in to this whole system quite well until we learned to control fire and began consuming copious amounts of energy faster than the sun regenerated it.  First we burned whole forests, then we moved on to the fossil fuels.  That was when the degradation began.

RE

QuoteAll species degrade the environment

I don't mean to pick on you Tony P.  But I have to say that I learned that is not true last week.  I have been into You-Tubes about the ancient past. 

I learned some things about insect evolution.

Before insects decay could not keep up with plant growth, and the world swung between snowball earths when ice miles thick covered all land and when land was all backing desert.  No decay meant CO2 was depleted and global temperature went below freezing.  New volcanic activity then would bring new CO2,and the earth became baking desert until plants cooled things down to make a brief paradise.  But the plants could not decay. The cycle repeated.  This happened several times.

Insects burrow into plants transferring fungus and bacteria to internal plant parts by their action, greatly increasing decay.  Fungi evolved to digest lignin and insects distribute the fungi.  Enough so that the planetary system is stabilized.

QuoteSpecific lineages within the basidiomycete fungi, white rot species, have evolved the ability to break up a major structural component of woody plants, lignin.

Keeping the correct amount of CO2 in the air turns out to be a big deal.

Who coulda knowd?

Peak oil not talked about right now because everyone is distracted with other issues.

Fracking, deep water drilling and bio-fuels all are reactions to peak oil... Easy stuff is gone. No more spindle top gushers...
Now where is that cartoon I posted 3 forums and about 10 years ago?

Here it is. My favourite peak oil video still on youtube!


Fuel here is hovering around $2.10 a litre. When I started drivig it was $0.20 a litre. 10 fold in 35 years.

Peak oil is adding to inflation, and all we know how to do is print more money, adding to inflation.
The correct response is use less... But... No government will ever get elected telling people your chldren will have a lower standard of living than you, hence the cycle goes on until we fall off a clif, One of many, we are rushing towards:

Ecconomic collapse
Food shortage
Environmental collapse
Social collapse
Wars
Population collapse
IQ collapse?...


Hmm, seeing all of these right now already. Maybe we are already in free fall?

Western ecconomic society needs to grow to survive. its basd on increasing money supply. It needs cheap energy to do this. We have run out of chep energy. De-growth is the only path forward. Some call this collapse. Most think we can avoid it. We can only delay.


JOW

Arthur Berman says 2-3 years and the world is going to know that dino juice production will not keep up with demand.


And all the strings that bind together modern life begin to fray.

After the short video a much longer one with Arthur played. 



Winds of a perfect storm gather.  An energy depletion storm with monumental waves of disruption will soon break upon the world.

According to Arthur our use of fossil fuel has not decreased.  There is no green transition.  Green energy is only 5% of an increasing total.  In a few years there is going to be some serious grim-reaping going on.  The commission of excess emission continues to climb.

Jevon's paradox is understood by less than 5% of humanity.  Global heating is a narrow view of the problem.  The size of the human enterprise is simply too big, and the number of people capable of change too small.

We be doomed.  The beginning of the end.  Peak oil needs to be redefined.  The peak occurs when insufficient supplies can no longer fund the American experiment.  Then it all comes down.


It is not that Americans are special, but America is at the nexus of the house of cards.

Quote from: K-Dog on Feb 24, 2024, 01:20 PMArthur Berman says 2-3 years and the world is going to know that dino juice production will not keep up with demand.

Art Berman said on video in 2011, introduced by the head of ASPO on the footsteps of the DOE Forrestal building in Washington, that there was no significant oil is US shales.

Currently the 3 shale plays in the Permian are making maybe, 5 mmbbl/d, the Eagle Ford is making 1 mmbbl/d, the Bakken is making something like 1.1-1.2 mmbbl/d, and a couple others make about 8 mmbbl/d total

Graphic with all US shale oil production here

US shales are making more oil, right now, than everyone in OPEC except Saudi Arabia. If the US could ONLY be a shale oil producer (arguably they are, call it mini-me US), it would be the 2nd largest producer in OPEC, and the 3rd largest producer on the planet. Beating out all of China, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Canada, UAE, etc etc.

What might it take in your eyes K-Dog, to disqualify the value of a petroleum geologist's opinion? Would not knowing there is...you know...OIL....in shale oil formations qualify?

And if, in fact, a petroleum geologist not knowing about oil in shale rocks isn't disqualifying at the most OMG HOW DID THAT EVER HAPPEN!!!! level, what might be?

Tell us how long the oil Bonanza will last TDOS.

Berman says new wells now only produce 2/3 of what new wells produced a few years ago.  Do you think he is lying about that?

Tell us what we are going to eat when the bonanza is over.  Arthur Berman's character which you seem to have a personal problem with, has nothing to do with the truth of what he says.  The truth of what he says is right or wrong based on objective facts.

How long will it be before a diesel truck can't deliver you Cheetos any more     ?

Quote from: K-Dog on Feb 24, 2024, 04:07 PMTell us how long the oil Bonanza will last TDOS.

I only know of one internet poster, one specialist, and a few hints they have dropped on the internet a year or three back now, spotted in a few very particular places over the years, who has ever claimed such a thing...and what was amusing about that person's answer was that it was framed in exactly the context almost never brought up within the peak oil sphere.

And the answer itself was completely worthless. But what it revealed was....revolutionary.

Quote from: K-DogBerman says new wells now only produce 2/3 of what new wells produced a few years ago.  Do you think he is lying about that?

Did he say this was absolute volumes or normalized to lateral length? Which particular formations? Did he correct for changes in drilling locations as newer wells, or perhaps older ones, turned out to have been in the Tier 1 acreage, versus the other lesser acreage as the Tier 1 became depleted? Or more Tier 1 was discovered?

In terms of folks giving HINTS at having tackled the US shales in the right way, I have only proof of one gang releasing information showing they know far more than they usually let on, and you've never seen from Art in his professional career. The answer has nothing to do with if Art is correct or not, because absolute volumes aren't the metric...economic viability is.

I've used this article before as a reference for a reason. Because no one else cuts these loose. Don't know if it is because folks like Art can't, or won't, or the others that make them charge for the info because that's how valuable it is.

If these folks have done this work for all shales in the US, they have the answer to the question you just asked. But someone who doesn't know oil in US shale formations even exists? What level of getting it wrong discredits Art's opinion K-Dog? How many 2+2=5 exercises before a source discredits every word coming out of their mouths....even if you WANT to believe it?

TDOS,  when people pin you down you don't answer.  You are a cornicopian.  I asked you,  tell us how long the oil bonanza will last?

Tell us in you own words.  I will make it easier on you this time and only answer one of the questions.

Quote from: K-Dog on Feb 24, 2024, 04:58 PMTDOS,  when people pin you down you don't answer.

Et Tu, Brute? I have asked more than a few of my own....and they have been avoided with alacrity. One of them this very evening on your most current reference...and I provided the information to allow you to answer as easy as I could. Of what quality is the reference you provided, in light of their track record?

Quote from: K-DogYou are a cornicopian.  I asked you,  tell us how long the oil bonanza will last?

Define "bonanza". Volume or price. And the scale of the question. Domestic or global?

And I am a doomer. Just not like one of those you defined earlier i.e. the faith based who ignore conflicting evidence, facts and even reality in order to proclaim a result they like. You explained them quite well. Being a doomer is childs play based on nothing more than perspective. All it requires is an understanding that the Sun is getting lighter every day, and the astrophysical doom that guarentees.

Quote from: K-DogTell us in you own words.  I will make it easier on you this time and only answer one of the questions.

Cool. I put it in bold last time so you wouldn't miss it. Here it is again.
What might it take in your eyes K-Dog, to disqualify the value of a petroleum geologist's opinion?

Your question was "tell us how long the oil bonanza will last?"

Give me the framework of interest and I'll give you my answer. Price or volume. And scale.