Quote from: RE on Dec 14, 2025, 01:55 PMI don't really see the point of either of these adventures, at least right now.  I mean, FUCK!  Oil is selling down at $57/bbl today!  Just about everybody who is fracking or pumping deep water oil is doing it at a loss at those prices.  You wanna bring MOAR supply online?  WTF? 
RE

Global peak oil happened in 2018. The time to get ready is NOW, even if the consequences of this event haven't played out as the hobbyists have hoped! Even the US might have peaked earlier this year! I mean...when will the consequences begin?

Market prices are just a head fake....the market trying to hide the TRUE state of oil production and reserves and resources. Us peakers know....like a shark just under the water....soon....it will reveal itself and eat the Orca along with Roy Schneider, Richard Dreyfussa and Robert Shaw.

I don't think there is quite that much of a rush.  As I recall, the IEA predicted a glut of oil for the next decade.  There's also the problem of what people can afford to pay.  As we have seen before, when Oil gets up over ~$80/bbl, the economy breaks.  So it's constrained within a very tight range.  Given the high debt load curently carried by all sectors of the economy (gov, corp & consumer), it's hard to see where the money would come from to support higher prices.  IMHO,  until the economic probleems are resolved, there's little chance of having supply side issues, unless of course we have a global escalation of warfare.  In that case, the Oil production facilities would be prime targets, making the oil even more expensive to extract and ship.  It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to drill new wells if they're likely to be targets for sabotage.

Then again, nothing abut the industry makes a whole lotta sense.

RE

Quote from: RE on Dec 14, 2025, 11:54 PMI don't think there is quite that much of a rush.  As I recall, the IEA predicted a glut of oil for the next decade.

And global peak oil in 2006. Sorry, but Fatih has never had anyone's confidence in knowing dick about O&G anything, plus he's an economist to begin with. "If you build it they will come!" is common among that gang. When I bump into demand side arguments I label it "The Field Of Dreams" economic theory.

Quote from: REThen again, nothing abut the industry makes a whole lotta sense.
RE

The industry makes perfect sense on the upstream side at the very least and can be described from top to bottom. The instant the social science of herd-think gets involved within the supply/demand/price envelope ....that's when it all goes sideways.

Quote from: TDoS on Dec 15, 2025, 01:28 PMThe industry makes perfect sense on the upstream side at the very least and can be described from top to bottom. The instant the social science of herd-think gets involved within the supply/demand/price envelope ....that's when it all goes sideways.

Maybe,  but I still don't think using the military in either Vz or the GWN at this point to acquire oil is a very good idea.  Overall too destabilizing and a lousy risk/reward ratio.

RE