Quote from: RE on Apr 08, 2025, 07:12 PMNot gonna be fracking much oil @ $57/bbl.

Oil prices falling into zone that discourages production xpensive stuf

https://www.axios.com/2025/04/08/oil-prices-production-growth

RE

Growth was easing up anyway, even at $70. Some signs of decreasing productivity at the geological level are showing up already, anyone with data and looking at it has known it for almost a year now. All good things must come to an end, cycles of development run their course until the next technology/geology/economic combination shows up to go after the more expensive stuff. Even that stuff was edging into the limelight when oil was in the $100+ range pre-2015....but then the resulting price drop from the US developing more normal oil...again...happened. So we'll have to wait for the price to go back up to let the shales run their course, and THEN all the other more expensive oils might get a chance.

This growing disconnect is fueling serious concerns that widespread oil futures complacency could be risking global supply chains and credit markets and potentially setting up the next major supply shock.  Goldman Sachs recently warned of a disconnect in the oil markets, offering potential scenarios of what the rest of 2026 could look like, not just for the crude market, but refined products, such as jet fuel and petrochemicals. The potential paths the rest of 2026 might take range from a mere economic hiccup to catastrophe.

So which is it gonna be, sportsfans?  HICCUP or CATASTROPHY?

In my grand tradition as a confirmed Doomer, I'm betting on Catastrophe. 😬

Sooner or later the  physical shortages are gonna catch up to the rosy picture painted by Trumpolini.  Meanwhile, his buddies will continue to rake in the moolah in market manipulation of the NACHO trade.

Meanwhile, futures markets rise and fall based on a different host of speculative factors, including President Trump's often contradictory late-night posts on Truth Social, which seem purely for market manipulation, rather than anything approaching an accurate assessment of the situation.

Trumpworld insiders are making hundreds of millions on every announcement, with a $1.7 billion short on oil placed one hour before Wednesday's bombshell report in Axios, after which crude plunged 7%.

RE

You will note at the end of this article from the Smartest Guys in the Room at the IEA that they STILL assume a deal to end the war will be reached and the Black Gold will once again flow freely into the tanks of Happy Motorists around the world.  EXCEPT EVERYBODY KNOWS already that even IF some kind of deal is reached to end the war that the flow will never go back to the pre-War levels due to insurance issues at the very least.  No sign whatsoever that the war will be over anytime soon, so WTF base your assumptions on this fantasy?

By the Nov elections the true state of the oil market will be patently obvious.  Trumpsky will be lucky if he only gets Impeached.

RE