The world needs a Hormuz fertilizer initiative now

RE · Aug 29, 2026, 06:19 PM

GRIPT.IE 2026-08-29

PAT CUMMINS: Could we be facing food shortages – or even famine?

Geopolitical conflicts and sanctions are disrupting global fertilizer and energy markets, threatening a manufactured food crisis that will disproportionately harm poorer nations. As wealthy countries outbid developing regions for essential agricultural inputs, political decisions weaponizing vital commodities risk causing widespread hunger and instability rather than addressing diplomatic tensions.

There is little doubt at this point that the various wars and climate related agricultural impacts of the 2026 growing season are going to have a huge impact on the amount of food that makes it to market in 2027. Nor that the impact will basically be that Food Prices will rise globally, as nearly all growing regions and staples have been adversely affected.

Thhere also is little doubt that the worst effects of this global problem for Homo Saps will be concentrated mainly on the poorest countries of the world, where the populations already have to spend 50-75% of their monthly budget on food. Inevitably here, a lot more people than usual are going to starve next year. How many more we don't yet know and here in the FSoA probably never will, particularly about the repercussions here among Amerikans.

The question is, regardless of what the absolute numbers are, if most of the dead people and food riots are happening elsewhere, does that count as Collapse? If most Amerikans are still Happy Motoring and the Costco shelves are still stocked (albeit at higher prices), we have nothing to worry about? After all, people have always been starving in those poor countries, right?

Is it only Collapse when it happens in your neighborhood? At what point in how many other neighborhoods does it have to affect before it counts? Does it only count if White people are starving?

What about Food Aid to starving countries? If prices are rising here and people start having to choose between buying Food or paying for their Netflix subscription, how will they feel about sending Free Food to starving people in Kenya? Will there be free food distribution here for people who can't afford to buy food and pay the rent too? Will the SNAP Card system get more funding?

Before Rome itself fell, they lost Britain and Gaul in revolts and Barbarian invasions. it took a century for the mayhem to engulf the city itself. I don't think you need to wait until 476 to say Rome was collapsing though. It was already falling apart in 386, and then after 476 the Empire in the east still survived run from Constantinople. Many aspects still survived in the Holy Roman Catholic Church to this day in terms of economic ownership of properties and contracts. In that sense, it never collapsed.

So, depending on your POV, it's pretty much possible to view a collapse with your own definition. Personally, I'm satisfied that we are somewhere between 386 and 476 in the comparative timeline.

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RE · Aug 30, 2026, 04:08 AM

ATLANTICCOUNCIL.ORG 2026-08-24

Four scenarios for a looming global food crisis

Colliding shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and a super El Niño threaten food supplies through 2027. Experts outline four scenarios ranging from managed crises to political collapse based on route recovery and weather severity. International cooperation will determine whether the world avoids systemic breakdown or faces famine.

Well, we can already cross off Hormuz returning to pre-war levels of shipping in 2026, which drops us in on the left side of the Matrix.

Whether the outcome is in the top or bottom left side quadrant will depend on how large an effect the Super El Nino has on global food production, and that still remains to be seen. However, neither scenario is good, it's just a question of how widespread the effects are.

Chances are the FSoA will be spared the worst of the direct effects, but the knock on effects will cause problems of their own. There will be increased migration pressure out of countries that suffer food shortages. If those countries are in Central or South America, migrants will start heading north. On the humanitarian level, it will be harder to keep the border with Mexico as tightly restricted as it currently is. Also difficult to send food aid south if the prices here continue to rise.

2027 will only be the beginning, since there will still be some remaining surplus from 2026, but this will be gone by midsummer. So the real problems won't hit until late 2027 into 2028. They should be planning logistics now and how the international response should be coordinated, but somehow I doubt this is happening.

Another slow-motion train wreck.

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K-Dog · Aug 30, 2026, 04:48 PM

It makes you wonder. Will Billy Boomer find a park to park his 401K. Or will he be forced to make other arrangements?

Who's hiring. Anybody know?

The world needs a Hormuz fertilizer initiative now

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K-Dog