The world needs a Hormuz fertilizer initiative now

RE · Aug 30, 2026, 04:08 AM

ATLANTICCOUNCIL.ORG 2026-08-24

Four scenarios for a looming global food crisis

Colliding shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and a super El Niño threaten food supplies through 2027. Experts outline four scenarios ranging from managed crises to political collapse based on route recovery and weather severity. International cooperation will determine whether the world avoids systemic breakdown or faces famine.

Well, we can already cross off Hormuz returning to pre-war levels of shipping in 2026, which drops us in on the left side of the Matrix.

Whether the outcome is in the top or bottom left side quadrant will depend on how large an effect the Super El Nino has on global food production, and that still remains to be seen. However, neither scenario is good, it's just a question of how widespread the effects are.

Chances are the FSoA will be spared the worst of the direct effects, but the knock on effects will cause problems of their own. There will be increased migration pressure out of countries that suffer food shortages. If those countries are in Central or South America, migrants will start heading north. On the humanitarian level, it will be harder to keep the border with Mexico as tightly restricted as it currently is. Also difficult to send food aid south if the prices here continue to rise.

2027 will only be the beginning, since there will still be some remaining surplus from 2026, but this will be gone by midsummer. So the real problems won't hit until late 2027 into 2028. They should be planning logistics now and how the international response should be coordinated, but somehow I doubt this is happening.

Another slow-motion train wreck.

RE

K-Dog · Aug 30, 2026, 04:48 PM

It makes you wonder. Will Billy Boomer find a park to park his 401K. Or will he be forced to make other arrangements?

Who's hiring. Anybody know?

The world needs a Hormuz fertilizer initiative now

RE

K-Dog