[TDoS]

I don't peg BS as the starting point for collapse, merely as the starting point for when I began to pay attention to it and chronicle the progress.

Okay, fair enough. So, how long HAS your definition of collape, that according to you is well along even if opaque to...everyone else....been chugging along?

Yes, you have said it is in progress. But if Bear Stearns is your starting gun, I picked a better one for the idea, and here we are....119 years later after my better example. Apparently even larger bad economic events don't cause collapse and you want to pretend a little local one will? Or worse yet....IS? Come on.

You are confusing cause and effect. 

Not really. You can't even THINK about what I do without having that one locked down.

Bear Stearn isn't causing the collapse of industrial civilization, it's one of the effects. 
A fairly small one in the grand scheme of things, but significant enough to get me curious enough to start paying attention to what was ongoing.
RE

Fair enough to catch someone's attention. But you aren't stupid...what is wrong the Panic of 1907, which was far worse than BS. How about the the 13 economic recessions since WWII? The Great Recession (2008) and the The Greatest Recessions Since The Great Depression (Covid)?

It isn't as though you can be characterized as someone who wouldn't do the most basic look-see and realize BS was....nothing in the overall economic picture. Just another gambler in mortgage finance getting their comeuppance for being stupid.

[RE]

It's hardly opaque to "everyone else", given the vast amount of material that has been written about it from Tainter to Diamond to Heinberg to Carson...among many others.  Hell you even have to include some of our favorite bloggers like Kunstler, Orlov and Mr. Wizard, JMG. lol.

As to when it actually began, that's not a bad question but difficult to put a single date on because there are so many different components.  Also it has to wait until someone notices it, which comes after it's actually underway.  Looking at  environmental collapse for instance, Rachel Carson noticed it underway in the 60's, but it certainly began before that.  It only really becomes visible in retrospect, and there has to be some time interval to see develop.

Since oil is such a big part of the energy aspect, you could peg the beginning to when the 2nd derivative of new discoveries turned negative.  That would put it in the mid 1960s.



Another way to look at it would be the 2nd derivative of global population.  That peaked in 1962.



Just like a car that breaks down doesn't immediately stop or roll backwards, it begins to slow down first (in most situations), same is true for civilization collapse.  Picking out the moment it began slowing can be tough as it's almost imperceptible.  As it progresses it becomes more obvious.  Now with industrial civilization it has become quite apparent, and has been so since the early 2000s for any who is not so blind they will not see.

RE

[K-Dog]

some of our favorite bloggers like Kunstler, Orlov and Mr. Wizard

Kunstler is not one of our favorite authors.  He also brought us Orlov who also turned out to be a total opportunist.  You forget we had issues with both.

[RE]

some of our favorite bloggers like Kunstler, Orlov and Mr. Wizard

Kunstler is not one of our favorite authors.  He also brought us Orlov who also turned out to be a total opportunist.  You forget we had issues with both.

I was being sarcastic.  Note the lol.

RE

[K-Dog]

When those names cross my retnas any following 'lol's are not seen because my vision becomes a narrow black tunnel.

[RE]

Folks are beginning to warm up to the idea non-violent demonstrations won't work.  Time to start mixing the Molotov Cocktails!



https://www.axios.com/2026/01/19/trump-administration-protests-resistance

"We will be ungovernable": Resistance 2.0 pivots to disruption

RE

[K-Dog]

UNICORNRIOT.NINJA • 2026-01-18

Far-Right Provocateur Jake Lang Chased Out of Minneapolis During Hate Rally

Edward Jacob "Jake" Lang, the rally's organizer, was chased multiple blocks from City Hall to the Hotel Indigo. Protesters chased him through the lobby and out the back, where a red Tesla picked him up.

[K-Dog]

SAHANJOURNAL.COM • 2026-01-19

ICE broke down St. Paul man's door, walked him half-naked into the cold

ChongLy Scott Thao, a U.S. citizen with no criminal history, was detained in a car for about an hour Sunday before federal agents dropped him off back home without an apology.

[K-Dog]

RACHELANDTHECITY.SUBSTACK.COM • 2026-01-12

The ICE Shooter's Immigrant Wife Proves Exactly What You Think It Does

Jonathan Ross, the ICE agent who killed Renee Good in Minneapolis last week, is married to a Filipino immigrant. His father confirmed this to the Daily Mail.

[TDoS]

It's hardly opaque to "everyone else", given the vast amount of material that has been written about it from Tainter to Diamond to Heinberg to Carson...among many others.  Hell you even have to include some of our favorite bloggers like Kunstler, Orlov and Mr. Wizard, JMG. lol.

I'll give you Tainter and Diamond, as professional academic types who did research on the topic of quality. Heinberg I hear is a decent amateur violin player...and just because he mouths words you like doesn't mean there is any quality there whatsoever. After all, he advocated that peak oil in 2008 should require the government to force people out of the cities to grow food in the countryside. Amateur violin players playing at doom having forgotten the history of Stalin and the Holdor, Mao or Pol Pot thinking the same thing.
I am unfamiliar with Carson.

As to when it actually began, that's not a bad question but difficult to put a single date on because there are so many different components.  Also it has to wait until someone notices it, which comes after it's actually underway.

According to you, it already is. I'm asking why we aren't seeing it in any significant way....your definition of it of course. And the beginning of it doesn't have to be a single date, but surely you've got some event or another, maybe a couple of related events, that triggered the your definition of collapse that is quite difficult to see.

Looking at  environmental collapse for instance, Rachel Carson noticed it underway in the 60's, but it certainly began before that.  It only really becomes visible in retrospect, and there has to be some time interval to see develop.

Hubbert was able to figure out his contribution in advance (not his US 1950 peak oil claim which was just a warmup), so some folks don't need to wait until after the fact. 

As far as retrospect in general, I assure you a continental sized basalt flow wouldn't require all that much time to see the results of. Not environmental, but it would certainly and easily cascade into environmental effects without any trouble. Big volcanoes are REALLY cool....which is why Yellowstone got so much coverage among the geologically uninformed when they weren't worried about the Mayan calendar....just a little more steam out of Ol' Faithful, please Lord, and then...BOOM!

Since oil is such a big part of the energy aspect, you could peg the beginning to when the 2nd derivative of new discoveries turned negative.  That would put it in the mid 1960s.

And how many of the collapse conditions listed in your definition are currently churning the world because of global discoveries of oil? You well understand supply/demand/price.....you see an oil price problem FINALLY arriving 65 years later....except....what are gas prices nowadays? I paid <$2/gal. People tried this one before, in 2008 when oil speculation early in that year created a peak price only 48 years after global discoveries did their thing. Maybe the farther we get from global discovery peak the cheaper fuels get? Certainly that correlation looks good.

For the record, the global discoveries angle was used before. To predict all those early 21st century peak oils that discredited their claimants and gave a solid career bumpt to those of us who knew better. 

Another way to look at it would be the 2nd derivative of global population.  That peaked in 1962.

I don't deny that a big population of a species most closely resembling any other invasive species sooner or later ends badly. But do people have to keep proving they don't know when by continually pretending they do?

Picking out the moment it began slowing can be tough as it's almost imperceptible.

Do you say that because you backed yourself into a corner with a decent definition? Because there are a BUNCH of horn blowing doomers that have been doing it for awhile, and keep getting it wrong. Why did they proclaim the end decades ago? More PhDs in that crowd than ones on leftover dooomer blogs nowadays.

And yet, you me and Da Dog all managed to grow up into aging gracefully gentlemen and all still eating well. And none of it is via cannabalism!

As it progresses it becomes more obvious.

Indeed. So after the Dieoff back in the 80's was called during 1970 Earth Day celebrations, do you think those highly educated folks like Dr Ehrlich were just slack jawed stupid by pulling the trigger half a century too early? Did they not think about that the Boy Who Cried Wolf routine wouldn't work forever?

Now with industrial civilization it has become quite apparent, and has been so since the early 2000s for any who is not so blind they will not see.
RE

So....what events of the early 2000's correspond with the collapse definition you find acceptable? Certainly BS isn't even a ripple in a collapse pond....once it caught your eye, what did you then discover that mattered? Did you even know that a REAL peak oil occurred in 2018 and here we all still are? With local gasoline <$2/gal no less!

[K-Dog]

Do you think those highly educated folks like Dr Ehrlich were just slack jawed stupid by pulling the trigger half a century too early?

Not slack jaw stupid, and Ehrlich is an expert on teeth.  Knows about jaws he does.  He wrote an article about teeth.

But humanly stupid yes.

The curse of the capable is to forever expect from others that which only they themselves can see or do.

[RE]

There are a few events I found significant.

The Berlin Wall, 911, Katrina, AIG, Argentina, Egypt, Greece, Somalia, Cuba, Chernobyl, Fukushima, COVID, Homelessness, Global Migration, Trump...among others.

Frogs take a while to boil.



RE

[RE]

In the immediate wake of reports of an ICE-involved shooting on Minneapolis' north side, agents fire multiple rounds of tear gas, pepper balls, and flash bangs to keep the public at a distance.Dave Decker/ZUMA

Can U spell G-E-S-T-A-P-O?


https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/01/radley-balko-trump-ice-paramilitary-immigration-militarization-police/

How ICE Became Trump's Very Own Paramilitary Force

RE

[TDoS]

some of our favorite bloggers like Kunstler, Orlov and Mr. Wizard

I'm hardly a fan of a theater major pretending he knows anything about my professional specialty either. But creating a theater like message to pitch nonsense? He can certainly do that, I still love "The End of Suburbia" and what passed for the opinion of anyone in that little video.
 

Kunstler is not one of our favorite authors.

I thought he was just another doomer opportunist.

[TDoS]

The curse of the capable is to forever expect from others that which only they themselves can see or do.

So he got his butt kicked on a bet with an economist because only he could see? And the dieoff by the end of the 1970's he was pitching.....did all of us somehow miss that as well? Or should we just change his meaning slightly and apply it to the global peak oil that happened that year instead?