[monsta666]

The Euro bond idea has been floated around but in order for France to get it the EU would demand they close their deficit in a similar vein to Greece. Like Greece, such a move would be deeply unpopular with the French public. You also got to consider that it is bad enough for a French government to suggest deep cuts in spending but it be a whole lot worse if this pressure was coming from an external institution like the ECB.

In such a scenario I am sure the French government would deather as long as possible and would only comply if the bond markets were getting seriously nervous the French would go bankrupt at which point, and this only a guess by me, they would cave to the EU's fiscal demands. 

The issue here is, as you pointed out, the EU nations are also heavily indebted so a bailout might be hard to stomach by other nations but then if France were to fail they would likely bring down the EU.

If we imagine the other scenario whereby the French were granted access to EU bonds without any conditions then that would also be problematic for the EU. By giving access to the bonds without any/light conditions this would send a big signal to other countries that any kind of financial prudence was not needed as a country would simply apply for EU bonds. If enough countries acted on this assumption then the EU bonds would lose all credibility in the international markets. That would also have dire consequences.

At the end of the day every nation will fall but I think there is merit in attempting to identify the powder kegs that are likely to cause an explosion. To me, while many advanced economies have a shaky debt/fiscal profile it is France that is showing the most red lights. You won't find many countries with a combination of high debt load/high deficit spending/high taxation and a big enough economy to cause serious damage.

Got to remember France is the second biggest economy in the EU with only Germany bigger than it. If the French fall then the EU existence will be called into question.

[RE]

The Euro bond idea has been floated around but in order for France to get it the EU would demand they close their deficit in a similar vein to Greece. Like Greece, such a move would be deeply unpopular with the French public. You also got to consider that it is bad enough for a French government to suggest deep cuts in spending but it be a whole lot worse if this pressure was coming from an external institution like the ECB.

In such a scenario I am sure the French government would deather as long as possible and would only comply if the bond markets were getting seriously nervous the French would go bankrupt at which point, and this only a guess by me, they would cave to the EU's fiscal demands.

The only way the EU does this is by installing a Technocratic Goobermint like Greece.  Can U imagine the Frogs meekly rolling over for this like the Greeks?  I can't.

So I pondered a while & POW it hits me!



Most of what they need money for are internal things like fixing schools, paying teachers blah blah.

So, create a parallel internal currency to the Euro only used inside France.  Bring back the Franc!

It can be used to pay for the labor rebuilding schools, buy materials from France etc.

It doesn't need backing for internal use, but could be made interconvertible by backing it in Gold.  Where do you get the Gold?   Pull an FDR.  Make personal possession of Gold illegal, and expropriate it from all the rich folks in France.  Jewelry also.

The only thing they need Euros for is to buy Energy & any Food they can't produce in France.  Everything else, all internal trade is done in Francs.

POOF!  Problem solved. 😀

RE

[K-Dog]

So, create a parallel internal currency to the Euro only used inside France.  Bring back the Franc!

Hitler did something like that to build his military.  Deal was at the end of the day the funny money could be redeemed for the real thing.  To solve that problem, and not pay the debt.  (The due date was coming up)  Hitler started the war.

Wartime Führers do not have to pay bills.

[RE]

Hitler did something like that to build his military.  Deal was at the end of the day the funny money could be redeemed for the real thing.  To solve that problem, and not pay the debt.  (The due date was coming up)  Hitler started the war.

Wartime Führers do not have to pay bills.

The FSoA did a similar thing during the War of Northern Aggression.  The North used "Greenbacks" for internal trade in the Northern States and the South used Confederate Dollars.  Both sides used credit and promises to pay after the war for trade with Europe to get arms and munitions.  European Banks financed both sides for this, although the industrial north was more connected up and had better financing.  After the war, Confederate Dollars went worthless and Greenbacks converted to Dollars.  However, the Second Bank of the FSoA failed, and there was a "Free Banking" period with multiple Busts before the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 created the Dollars we use today.

RE