[RE]

St. Louis was already a decaying big shitty when I lived in MO back in the 1990s, it's hard to imagine how bad it is now.  Pretty close to Detroit I suspect, just perhaps slightly less poor black gang bangers and a few more white trash rednecks.

In terms of revitalizing and repopulating the city, it would seem like a better place to ship the refugees in the Concentration Camps being run on the Tex-Mex border than NYC, Chicago & LA, which are already stuffed to the gills with homeless. Of course, because St Looie has been in decay for so long there's no job opportunities and insufficient state and local tax revenue to cover the costs involved in keeping these folks fed, but at least there are empty buildings there and infrastructure in place to heat them and get the toilets flushing again.  They might have to share bathrooms in the office buildings and take sponge baths instead of shower  but that still better than porta potties and army tents around communal shower stalls.

So the only way to fund it would be through the federal goobermint, and both the state of MO and municipality of St Louis would

A- Be against it since their politics have changed little since the Civil War
&
B- Be forced to staff it and run it,

but given its history & geographic location at the center of the country on the Mighty Mississippi and Gateway to the West, symbolically and practically it seems like the best place to ship the hungry masses yearning to be free the Statue of Liberty talks about so poetically.

In an election year it's unlikely Uncle Joe would float this idea since it would immediately be attacked by The Donald from the courthouse steps at his latest trial, and the right wing media would pick it up and run with it like OJ Simpson in a car chase on the LA freeway.

So it goes.

https://www.businessinsider.com/st-louis-downtown-doom-loop-is-worse-than-san-francisco-2024-4

The city whose 'doom loop' just might be worse than San Francisco's

RE

[RE]

The Big Bubble of CRE is starting to pop.

Of course, we are being reassured by Jerry at Da Fed that this is strictly a Regional Bank problem ant there is no threat to the TBTF Banks.  Which of course really means the TBTF banks are in the deep doo doo.  Just ask Deutche Bank over in Germany.

$1T in distressed loans coming due over the next year is not just a regional bank problem, even if most  of those loans are nominally on the books of those banks.  When those banks have to shutter their doors and go into bankruptcy protection, their stock price plummets and who aare the shareholders of those banks?  You guessed it, the TBTF Banks themselves or their shareholders.  Everybody starts to need to borrow money to cover margin calls and nobody's got money to lend.  The whole shit show collapses in contagion gone wild.

OK, granted that is a Kollapsnik Wet Dream, it probably won't get quite that bad.  It's nott gonna be a minor ripple though either.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/commercial-real-estate-foreclosures-jumped-march-trouble-looms

Commercial real estate foreclosures jumped 117% in March as trouble looms

RE

[RE]

Sounds like the good old days of 2008 are coming back again!  This could be good for RE prices, since it will force the liquidation of a lot of bad mortgages and put a lot of properties up for auction.  Mostly commercial, but some residential too.  That's bad for the homeless situation, since it also probably means evictions.  A falling market will also put more mortggages underwater, which might cause owners with non-recourse mortgages to send in the Jingle Mail.

Recession signs popping up all over the place now.

https://watcher.guru/news/billionaire-barry-sternlicht-expects-one-bank-failure-per-week

Billionaire Barry Sternlicht Expects One Bank Failure Per Week

RE

[RE]

This could be good for RE prices, since it will force the liquidation of a lot of bad mortgages and put a lot of properties up for auction.  Mostly commercial, but some residential too.

Right on cue.  This bank bought it back for less than 10 cents on the dollar.  Next tax filing they have a $100M+ write down on the balance sheet.  Pinnacle Bank is not a TBTF bank.  If they can't unload this property for a bit more than what they just paid for it, they won't be far behind in declaring bankruptcy.

And the beat goes on.

Now tell me, how many refugees do you think you could shelter in 1M square feet?  If you cut it up into 500 sq ft apartments, you could have 2000 apartments there.  Meanwhile, they spend more than that putting up tents at the border.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/real-estate/fort-worths-tallest-building-sells-just-12-3m-auction-stunning-price-drop



RE

[RE]

What could possibly go wrong? lol.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2024/06/freddie-and-fannie-and-the-coming-nightmare-on-main-street/

Freddie (and Fannie) and the Coming Nightmare on Main Street

RE

[K-Dog]

What could possibly go wrong? lol.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2024/06/freddie-and-fannie-and-the-coming-nightmare-on-main-street/

Freddie (and Fannie) and the Coming Nightmare on Main Street

RE

The conservative bias shows:

The National Review was founded in 1955 by the conservative editor, columnist, author, and commentator William F. Buckley Jr. (1925-2008). According to their about page, the print magazine and website are corporately known as National Review, Inc. It is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the National Review Institute (NRI) based in New York City.  The magazine's website covers articles, blogs, videos, podcasts, opinion pieces, conservative news, and commentary in addition to the content published in its print version.

Unfortunately I can't use the online version as toilet paper.  But a print version of the article would be fluffy and soft.

[RE]

The conservative bias shows:

Right wing bias notwithstanding, Goobermint-guaranteed loans are mainly a risk-free cash machine for the TBTF banks.  Bad loans are all covered by the taxpayer in true "Privatize the Profits, Socialize the Losses" Capitalist fashion.  In addition, pumping still more borrowed money to prop up an anemic, inflation ridden economy is aspectacularly bad idea.

The FHFA also seems likely to approve a Freddie request to purchase second mortgages. The "primary goal" of the proposal, the government says, is to create a cheaper version of "cash-out refinance" — in other words, to allow consumers to pump more borrowed money into the economy at a time of persistent inflation.

Both of the quasi-Goobermint corporations are practically guaranteed to need another, even bigger bailout with the next RE collapse, which does not look too far off on the horizon.

RE

[K-Dog]

True

[RE]

The bank said home prices will stay high and go even higher. The housing shortage will persist. And mortgage rates may not fall much — even if the Federal Reserve finally delivers long-delayed interest rate cuts. ...

"This will take many years to work itself out. There isn't a magic fix," Michael Gapen, head of US economics at Bank of America, told CNN in a phone interview. "The message for first-time homebuyers is one of patience and frustration." ...

Bank of America warns the lock-in effect could persist for another six to eight years, keeping a lid on supply during that time.

This is how out of  touch with reality banksters are with society.  To them, this is a problem that can't be fixed.  There's not enough supply and people won't move. So for the better part of the next decade housing costs will stay high, go higher and people will be frustrated.  Do they really think we can keep going with more homeless every year for another 8 years?  They don't see the connection between homelessness and lack of affordable housing?

The solution is OBVIOUS.  START BUILDING MORE HOMES!  Affordable homes!  Not 2 bedroom apts that go for $3500/mo.  If the private sector won't build them, da goobermint needs to do it.  Starting yesterday, not 8 years from now.

WTF isn't there some politician who will step up and suggest this ASTOUNDINGLY OBVIOUS solution? 

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/27/economy/housing-market-prices-inflation/index.html

RE

[RE]

Watching the RE market crumble is like watching grass grow but less exciting. lol.  The payoff though when the worm finally turns is marvelous, so it's worth keeping track of what is going on.  This is the first article I've seen which gives insight into the depth of the problem in the banking and insurance industries.  This won't stay confined to regional banks holding thee mortgages,  insurers, reinsurers and TBTF banks underwriting CMBS securities are going to get hit as well.  2026 looks like the worst, except the probability of recession could accelerate the decline and force liquidation of properties before they need to refi.

Anyhow, unlike 2008 where the banking crisis arrived during a period of economic growth, this one is going to arrive when the economy is already shrinking.  Bailouts are going to be uch harder to manage with currencies that are already questionably backed with irredeemable dent.  Firinig up the Helicopter and loading the Bazooka with Funny Money will not be so EZ.

https://investorplace.com/2024/07/the-commercial-real-estate-meltdown-is-spreading/

RE

[RE]

A $TRILLLION$ in CRE debt on office space probably not worth more than 50 cents on the dollar. lol.  AIG was Chump Change at a measely $100B.  They're gonna need a Bigger Bazooka. 

This is going to be REALLY entertaining. 

https://hbr.org/2024/07/u-s-commercial-real-estate-is-headed-toward-a-crisis

U.S. Commercial Real Estate Is Headed Toward a Crisis

RE

[RE]

Good explanation of why Capitalism and the "Free Market" fails to build affordable housing.

https://ggwash.org/view/96392/why-no-ones-building-middle-income-housing-in-american-cities

Why no one's building middle-income housing in American cities

RE

[K-Dog]

Good explanation of why Capitalism and the "Free Market" fails to build affordable housing.

https://ggwash.org/view/96392/why-no-ones-building-middle-income-housing-in-american-cities

Why no one's building middle-income housing in American cities

RE

That article was illustrative and clear.

Because neither the office-building developer nor the warehouse developer can afford to pay $10 million—at that price, their projects will not generate sufficient economic returns to be financially viable—they cannot compete for this land. Thus, the land will be sold to become an apartment building.

The wisdum of de market!

* Caught with its pants down the wisdum of the market reveals itself.  It wants to make more rich people by making more poor people.

** Circumstances of being rich or poor can determine how you feel about the wisdom of de market.  However poor people often identify with their dreams over their realities and go total Stockholm syndrome.  Rich people do not make this mistake at all.  Those who seem to are simply assholes.

*** Working day and night to grow inequity and maintain business as usual, the working man is the ultimate philanthropist.

[K-Dog]

Good explanation of why Capitalism and the "Free Market" fails to build affordable housing.

https://ggwash.org/view/96392/why-no-ones-building-middle-income-housing-in-american-cities

Why no one's building middle-income housing in American cities

RE

That article was illustrative and clear.

Because neither the office-building developer nor the warehouse developer can afford to pay $10 million—at that price, their projects will not generate sufficient economic returns to be financially viable—they cannot compete for this land. Thus, the land will be sold to become an apartment building.

The wisdum of de market!

* Caught with its pants down the wisdum of the market reveals itself.  It wants to make more rich people by making more poor people.

** Circumstances of being rich or poor can determine how you feel about the wisdom of de market.  However poor people can identify with their dreams over their realities and often go total Stockholm syndrome.  Rich people do not make this mistake.  Why would they?  Those who seem to are generally assholes pretending to be nice because they can.

*** Working day and night to grow inequity and maintain business as usual, a working man's dreams make him the ultimate philanthropist.  Driving by the new apartment building the working man imagines it must be nice to live there.

A few may find out.

In their dreams.  Because that is the only way they ever will.  Unless perhaps they are of the professional class with a huge 4-hoe-1-K. when they retire. 

Not so many like that though.  Rich people come to America from all over the world now.  It is the migration crisis nobody talks about.  Money does not always talk.  Sometimes it shuts the fuck up and makes things expensive.

To be rich and live in a faraway land.

If you are from anywhere else in the world, that faraway land can be America.

And making things too expensive for the locals is an American tradition.  Everyone with money is welcome.  Everybody else can swim a river and drown.

[K-Dog]

Actual data saying how well Americans are doing is hard to decipher. According to a NY Times podcast inflation is under control and Ameicans are earning more. Enough to offset inflation.

Implication, quit yer bitchin.  You ungrateful cunts.

I totally agree.  As a professional I earned six figures.  Now after the pandemic forced me into retirement I indeed have been getting increases at my part-time McJob.  Enough to offset the cost increases for coffee and donuts on the way to work for sure.

Whoop-de-do.