[RE]

Ugo has a Hopium streak that appears when he starts talking about renewables, so I wouldn't completely discount him generating some kind of scenario where there would be a recovery after a Seneca style rapid collapse.

Also, unless you believe we are on a one way steady progression to extinction, a leveling out and then rebound is the only other possible outcome.  That's what happened when the population of Homo Saps fell off a Seneca Cliff 75,00years ago and dwindled to just 10,000 meat packages.  It's also true for smaller collapses,  like Rome.  The city itself dropped in population to just a few thousand after the western Roman Empire collapsed, but eventually rebounded through the middle ages.

However, on a scale of a human lifetime, if you have a Seneca collapse, you would never be able to get back to that level so fast.  It takes many generations to recover.

RE

[K-Dog]

The old kingdom fell and there was chaos in Egypt.
Three generations of road warrior fun times without the road.  Then the Middle Kingdom.
Tut-tut the people are organized, but then the Middle Kingdom falls.
Three generations of road warrior fun times without the road again.  Then the New Kingdom.
The New Kingdom falls and then,
Libyan Pharaohs,

Libyan Pharaohs were Egyptian Idiocracy times.

and then Alexander the great.  A bad ass-mofo conquering dawg.

What do we mean by rebound.  This is too abstract.

[RE]

What do we mean by rebound.  This is too abstract.

To know that, we'd need to know the contents of the Facepalm post His Royal Trollness was referring to that Ugo supposedly made.  Since I don't follow Facepalm, I have no idea what this might be.  We'll have to wait since HRT is back in the cooler for being persistently insulting.

RE

[TDoS]

Ugo, when discussing the Senece Cliff on Facebook, also provided examples that included a rebound...the cliff not being an absolute.

In your opinion, does LTO production then recover in sync with this rebound, should it occur?

I do not believe you.  The Seneca cliff represents a cascade failure from which there is no recovery.  Ugo will not be saying there is a recovery from that.

Facts do not require your belief. I was the one who pointed out that the very graphs and metrics Ugo used to show the Senece Cliff also showed a recovery. He postulated that in the given circumstance it had, and it might require some further work to see what those circumstances were.

Don't like what Ugo said? Tough noogies. Go find someone who doesn't know what they are talking about to call a liar.

[RE]

Ugo, when discussing the Senece Cliff on Facebook, also provided examples that included a rebound...the cliff not being an absolute.

In your opinion, does LTO production then recover in sync with this rebound, should it occur?

I do not believe you.  The Seneca cliff represents a cascade failure from which there is no recovery.  Ugo will not be saying there is a recovery from that.

Facts do not require your belief. I was the one who pointed out that the very graphs and metrics Ugo used to show the Senece Cliff also showed a recovery. He postulated that in the given circumstance it had, and it might require some further work to see what those circumstances were.

Don't like what Ugo said? Tough noogies. Go find someone who doesn't know what they are talking about to call a liar.

Can you provide us with a link so we can see the context of this analysis?

RE

[TDoS]

Can you provide us with a link so we can see the context of this analysis?
RE

Deleted my Facebook account years ago. I believe the conversation was on the peak oil group, where I was keeping an eye on another long time acolyte in the Church of Peak. His Seneca work had already been out for awhile, and he was deep in the past examining a culture that had declined, it might have been the Romans, and the metric he had identified as having a cliff profile stopped decreasing and reversed. When matched to the history of Rome, there was a question as to whether or not recoveries were possible, based on the metric he was using in that example. He began speculating on what the metric might mean compared to the events in real time, and postulated that he might have to examine Senece Recoveries to see if there was any value or frequency to the idea.

[RE]

You can find posts I made 15 years ago on Peak Oil and you can't find a post from Ugo?  Come on.  How long ago was this?  In any event, "speculation" doesn't sound like he was very convinced of the idea.

RE

[TDoS]

You can find posts I made 15 years ago on Peak Oil and you can't find a post from Ugo?

I can remember (not just find) your claims about toyota going bankrupt from 16 years ago, but never found Facebook much to my taste. The ability to create echo chambers there was easy and utilized far more often than among the more old school forum style places. Plus, I got banned for being way too much peak oil expert for them, same as other places.

Come on.  How long ago was this?

I probably erased my last Facebook account at least....6 years ago? Maybe 7? I only know that because the owner of the Facebook peak oil forum (powers of a God...mind as sluggardly as the normies) was calling for 2018 as the end, and 2018 wasn't quite there yet. Spent a bunch of time with Alice as well, couldn't believe the things she didn't know, for as voluminous as her website is with occasionally good references. Half baked conclusions, but she was a believer, and that made her interesting.

So somewhere back thereabouts.

In any event, "speculation" doesn't sound like he was very convinced of the idea.
RE

He appeared to be in the pondering stage, so I don't know what level of convinced or anything else he arrived at. Didn't much care at the time, became far more interested in Simon Michaux.

[RE]

He appeared to be in the pondering stage, so I don't know what level of convinced or anything else he arrived at.

In that case, I suspect he would agree with what we said, which is any recovery would take generations.

RE

[TDoS]

He appeared to be in the pondering stage, so I don't know what level of convinced or anything else he arrived at.

In that case, I suspect he would agree with what we said, which is any recovery would take generations.

RE

Could be. Can't recall the time scale of the graphs he was using, or the particular metric. Only that it went down...Sceneca Cliff!!....and then it began recovering. He used the term "Seneca Recovery", not me. Don't know if he spent any further time on it or not.

I do know that I was there. And K-Dog wasn't. And if the two of you want to interpret what Ugo said that is one thing. But calling me a liar from a position of absolute ignornace is rude.

[RE]

But calling me a liar from a position of absolute ignornace is rude.

You complaining about somebody being rude is laughable.  You reap what you sow.

RE

[TDoS]

But calling me a liar from a position of absolute ignornace is rude.

You complaining about somebody being rude is laughable. 

Sort of like someone who wasn't there for a conversation proclaiming that those who were lied about its content? Laughable indeed.

It is quite touching though, a one legged man standing up   to defend he who was rude.

[RE]

Since you can't produce the evidence of the quote you reference, it's not laughable.  Based on your misrepresentations of many "Peak Oilers" you disagree with, it wouldn't be out of character for you to misrepresent what Ugo wrote.

I have one leg, but good balance, and besides I am sitting most of the time anyhow.

RE

[TDoS]

.... it wouldn't be out of character for you to misrepresent what Ugo wrote.
RE

It would be. Because I don't misrepresent.

Just because people know stuff that you don't, and you can't confirm because you don't hang in the right circles but prefer echo-chambers, and others obviously have far better memories of minor details of your own posting history (and mine pretty well too!), and it is all unscientific to do anything other than represent as best as possible (for courts, conferences, schooling the XOM folks in New Jersey or teaching PhD level students), but you pretend that I misrepresent is all you got?

All you've got is the Forum Power to ban/erase/censor/"pretend you know what Ugo said". Enjoy.

And you have my sympathy that it is the best you can do in terms of accomplishment.

[Toxic Plants Blog]

A two year old discussion that will be of interest to the hard-core doomer.  The fossil gurus are mentioned.

Peter's website: Toxic Plants Blog

Thanks for mentioning my blog, but I think that podcast I did with KMO was my least successful guest appearance ever (not that I've done very many of them).  For a start, we had problems with the audio, resulting in me not being able to use the headset I was intending to use, and having to switch to alternative equipment which resulted in me not being able to hear the sound of my own voice when I was talking, which was really off putting and interfered with my concentration.  Then there was the conflicting philosophy between myself and KMO.  As long time peak oil followers may remember, KMO went "all in" for peak oil, left his job and his family, went to live on an organic farm while he waited for the imminent collapse which never arrived, and probably ended up feeling rather foolish, which gave him a jaundiced view of peak oil forever after.  On the other hand, I kept a foot in both worlds, and continued with my daytime job while researching and preparing for peak oil, which turned out to be far more sensible (and I'm still doing it).  Then towards the end of the interview, KMO ran out of things to ask me and just started rabbiting on about anything to fill in the 60 minutes.  You can hear it all and judge for yourself if you listen to the podcast, but quite frankly I wouldn't recommend it!  Far better to visit my blog and read my latest post on the upcoming UK General Election.