[monsta666]

For me the acid test is how the economy holds up when global oil production goes into terminal decline. Once we reach that point we will experience more severe price spikes with the declines crippling future oil production which then instigates another spike in prices creating a vicious cycle. Big question is how long this plateau can last.

[K-Dog]

An anticipated long-term demand decline could trigger a disinvestment effect, where producers reduce exploration and drilling investments, potentially leading to supply shortages and price spikes even before physical depletion occurs.

The lag time to get rid of Trump could result in an economic crash so bad supply shortages result from lack of drilling investments.  The cost to produce oil can't do anything but become more expensive as time passes.

[TDoS]

For me the acid test is how the economy holds up when global oil production goes into terminal decline.

Well, 7 years now past the global 2018 peak and...the economy is....okay? The hiccups visible seem to be more related to idiots in charge than lack of oil. Certainly oil prices would seem to reflect this reality.

Once we reach that point we will experience more severe price spikes with the declines crippling future oil production which then instigates another spike in prices creating a vicious cycle. Big question is how long this plateau can last.

Well, if you want to call oil production post 2018 peak a plateau, that's reasonable. Seems like Hirsch and Berman and ASPO used that angle once around 2011 during the ASPO in Washington that year. According to EIA IES numbers, 2024 is close to 2018 but still below it, with most volume between 2018 and 2024 being in the 82 mmbbl/d range, with noticeable blips downward during Covid.

Crude oil and lease condensate only of course, people who want to pretend that anyone with a brain uses those total liquids number is terribly uninformed. I beleive Art made that argument on Nat's show a year or two back. I presumed at the time it was in jest, but now I think he might not even know the difference between the two.