[K-Dog]

Ask him.

https://www.artberman.com/

According to the recording, he has the website to allow people to get in touch with him.

[TDoS]

Ask him.

https://www.artberman.com/

According to the recording, he has the website to allow people to get in touch with him.

I already have. When he was in Denver and revealed he was a history major before he decided to become a geologist...who didn't know the history of horizontal wells. He took questions. When he was on TOD, and made up OpX numbers on shale gas wells and made the mistake of putting a number to them in front of someone who knew the right answer. I was part of the audience that snickered when John stopped him in the middle of presentation at the national AAPG meeting in Texas (turns out you really shouldn't misrepresent the work of national caliber professionals when they are running the session). And when he attempted to introduce EROEI into the AAPG CORE (Committee on Resource Evaluation) committee topics for professional study the chairmen stopped in the office and asked me what my recommendation was.

There is a reason he does a...blog....thingie. No credibility after his October 2011 news conference. But for entertainment value in the world of geosciences, the guy is priceless.

[K-Dog]

So would you say an old dog can't learn new tricks?

No excuses for them, but anybody who gets in the public eye is going to experience extreme social distortion.  Group think takes over.  Combine that with the relentless expectations with no time off in the public eye, and mistakes will be made.

I have a Stoic humility, but the engine in my brain-pan does run high rpms, and really I have not met a person in my life who does not express some brain-dead bullshit which makes no sense, and which is not related to the actual material conditions of our existence even by a stretch of the imagination if I hear anyone talk for more than five minutes. 

I am forced to admit a sort of 'superiority' and I really don't like it.  But the truth is the world is filled with stupidinos, who spend most of their energy just trying to appear normal.  People who absorb much, but learn little.

It is impossible for me to 'follow' anyone, and when I have met 'guru' types in my life, they quickly identify me as competition or as an outright enemy.  If two Buddhas met each other on the road they would most certainly kill each other.  200% !

Bottom line - As everyone wears the mask of the idiot if you pay enough attention, then relying on 'reputation' to judge the quality of their truth is a fools errand. 

Pay attention to the message and ignore the messenger.

And concerning true idiots, even those motherfuckers are right twice a day.  Just like clocks.

[TDoS]

So would you say an old dog can't learn new tricks?

Do you mean can a geologist who publically stated that the US doesn't have much oil in shales, learn....something new? I would presume he can learn something new, yes.

I've been watching his updates since he fired up his new website circa Dec 28, 2023 or so. The first title annoucement he then released on January 10, 2024. "Beginning of the End for the Permian"

How much did he learn between 2011 and thinking there wasn't much oil in US shales and this blog post? You tell me.

No excuses for them, but anybody who gets in the public eye is going to experience extreme social distortion.  Group think takes over.  Combine that with the relentless expectations with no time off in the public eye, and mistakes will be made.

By "public eye" do you mean anyone belting out blog stuff? And then "relentless expectations" come from believing that because it is online it has value?

I am forced to admit a sort of 'superiority' and I really don't like it.  But the truth is the world is filled with stupidinos, who spend most of their energy just trying to appear normal.  People who absorb much, but learn little.

Hey! Something we completely agree with!

Bottom line - As everyone wears the mask of the idiot if you pay enough attention, then relying on 'reputation' to judge the quality of their truth is a fools errand.

Well good thing with Art we have him being silly in 2011 and still doing it in 2023. So rather than knowing much of anything in any moment, he has CONSISTENCY on just always getting things wrong? Like a perfect counter-indicator? He portrays it as true....you can instantly discount every word.

Pay attention to the message and ignore the messenger.

Always reasonable. So Art proves he doesn't know anything about oil production in 2011...and proves his consistency by doing it again in 2023....we can ignore the messenger and know only that whomever the messenger is, they don't appear to know anything about oil.

And concerning true idiots, even those motherfuckers are right twice a day.  Just like clocks.

So if motherfuckers can be right twice a day, doesn't that make someone being wrong across more than a decade twcie is even WORSE than being a true idiot? More like...a SUPER true idiot?

[K-Dog]

I was told there were huge reserves of shale oil way back in 1975, the issue then was how to get it economically.  You will argue the point, but how to get it was not mainstream knowledge.

Estimates since 2015 suggest that the best parts of the Permian Basin may reach an EROEI of 7–10:1, but the average across U.S. shale is still closer to an EROEI of 5:1.  It takes a lot more money to get the same oil than it used to.

I think economic conditions will give us a Seneca Cliff of production after which taxes will be used to pump oil so you can then buy it.  Socialism for the rich.  Shit for everyone else.

The big picture is far more complicated than how much black stuff is in the rocks.