Conventional Oil 101

[K-Dog]

The simple tech behind the ultimate burning experience.

[TDoS]

The simple tech behind the ultimate burning experience.

Great video. So your point is because all new US oil from horizontal wells and shale source rock is produced using pumpjacks like the ones in your video that all new oil is therefore conventional? I thought your previous point was that all the new oil wasn't conventional?

I also will completely agree with you that it is simple tech.

[K-Dog]

Simple tech, which most people know nothing about.

[K-Dog]

[K-Dog]

The Forbes article referenced above.

The Road To Clean Energy Is Messier Than We Thought

Loren Steffy, UH Energy Scholar

The fracking boom is now officially in the rearview mirror.

On Oct. 6, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told a Financial Times conference that reinstating a ban oil exports was "a tool" that the Biden Administration could use to stabilize soaring oil prices. She also hinted at the tired old saw of releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, another political tactic pulled straight from 2008.

Reinstating the export ban, which was lifted in 2015, may seem a logical response with oil prices rising 125 percent in the past year and topping $80 a barrel for the first time since 2014. But it also fits a pattern that raises concerns about the cost and difficulty of moving away from fossil fuels too quickly.

While the fracking boom created a lot of talk about energy independence, financial reality has put the brakes on the "drill, baby, drill" mentality. Quite simply, the U.S. can produce a lot of oil, but it can't produce it profitably.

That realization resulted in a 34 percent production decline from U.S. shale plays by the middle of last year as companies pulled back on expansive drilling program, pledged financial discipline and vowed better returns for investors. This year, U.S. oil output is about 11.4 million barrels a day, down from 12 million in 2019, and the Energy Information Administration predicts it will fall another 100,000 barrels by year's end.

To put all this in perspective, I contacted Jeffrey Brown, an independent petroleum geologist who has analyzed global net exports for the past 15 years.

An analysis by Hart Energy found that total U.S. oil production fell by 34 percent before the pandemic. Given the high decline rate of shale plays – which account for about 70 percent of U.S. production — Brown estimates the U.S. needs about 3.8 million barrels a day of new production just to maintain pre-pandemic output  — roughly the equivalent of a new North Slope of Alaska every six months. That's about 15 times as much oil as producers needed to generate in 2008 to offset production declines.

It's not a new phenomenon. Production from shale wells declines much faster than from conventional ones, as the more we drill, the more we must drill just to maintain the same level of output. In the industry, it's referred to as the "Red Queen effect," a reference to the character in Lewis Carroll's Through the Looking Glass who tells Alice that "it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place."

That realization resulted in a 34 percent production decline from U.S. shale plays by the middle of last year as companies pulled back on expansive drilling program, pledged financial discipline and vowed better returns for investors. This year, U.S. oil output is about 11.4 million barrels a day, down from 12 million in 2019, and the Energy Information Administration predicts it will fall another 100,000 barrels by year's end. 

To put all this in perspective, I contacted Jeffrey Brown, an independent petroleum geologist who has analyzed global net exports for the past 15 years.

An analysis by Hart Energy found that total U.S. oil production fell by 34 percent before the pandemic. Given the high decline rate of shale plays – which account for about 70 percent of U.S. production — Brown estimates the U.S. needs about 3.8 million barrels a day of new production just to maintain pre-pandemic output  — roughly the equivalent of a new North Slope of Alaska every six months. That's about 15 times as much oil as producers needed to generate in 2008 to offset production declines.

It's not a new phenomenon. Production from shale wells declines much faster than from conventional ones, as the more we drill, the more we must drill just to maintain the same level of output. In the industry, it's referred to as the "Red Queen effect," a reference to the character in Lewis Carroll's Through the Looking Glass who tells Alice that "it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place."

That's not even the scariest part of the equation. As Brown sees it, if the U.S. decides to ban exports once again, it will be following a global trend. Brown's specialty is tracking something he calls "net export math," or "resource nationalism." Basically, it means that a country's exports decline as domestic demand rises. Countries can maintain their export rates only if they cut their domestic consumption at the same rate or faster than the decline rate of their production. That, of course, doesn't happen because as oil wealth grows, economies expand and domestic demand increases.

"It's a mathematical certainty that the rate of decline in net exports will exceed the rate of decline in production and that the rate of decline in next exports will accelerate with time," Brown said.

Mexico is a good example. From 2004 to 2019, its production fell by 50 percent — from 3.8 million to 1.9 million barrels a day. During the same period, net exports fell by 90 percent, from 2 million to 200,000 barrels a day.

Even in Saudi Arabia, skyrocketing domestic demand triggered a 5.7 percent drop in net exports between 2005 and 2019, although the kingdom's total production rose by 9.3 percent. As oil-producing countries channel their petrodollars into economic development, their internal need for energy rises, leaving less oil and gas to export.

Meanwhile, two of the world's most populous countries, China and India, have had a massive surge in energy demand since 2005. Their combined net oil imports rose to 14.8 million barrels a day in 2019 from 5.1 million in 2005.

Brown has tracked the combined net exports of the world's 33 oil exporting nations since 2005. That year, global net exports peaked at 45 million to 46 million barrels a day, and they haven't exceeded that level since. Instead, the amount of oil available for export worldwide has steadily declined. He estimates it has fallen to about 30 million barrels a day.

That's a concern for the U.S., because we're still importing about 5.9 million barrels, and our import needs could rise if the U.S. shale producers continue to sit on the sidelines.

We can't expect much from the Oil Patch these days. Scott Sheffield, chief executive officer of Pioneer Natural Resources PXD +0.2%, the biggest shale operator, recently told the Financial Times that it doesn't matter how high prices for the Brent crude, the global benchmark, go.

"Everybody's going to be disciplined, regardless whether it's $75 Brent, $80 Brent, or $100 Brent," he said. "All the shareholders that I've talked to said that if anybody goes back to growth, they will punish those companies. I don't think the world can rely much on U.S. shale."

While some private companies may begin breaking ranks and expand drilling programs, it's unlikely they can produce enough oil to offset the decline rates. Keep in mind the other thing the Red Queen told Alice.

"If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!"

Quite simply, there's less and less oil available in the world. That's a short-term worry because we still need oil and gas to power most things, and higher commodity prices put a drag on the economy.

Renewables, of course, are touted as a solution, but unless we all get electric cars and rooftop solar panels by the end of the week, that switch isn't going to protect our wallets from higher energy prices while we make the shift. That's why the IEA called on energy companies to move away from oil to fight climate change, then a few weeks later implored OPEC to pump more crude.

The road to a cleaner energy future, it seems, is marked with conflicting road signs. Getting to our destination is going to be more costly — and more complicated — than it seemed even a few years ago.

"Short term, the transition to renewables is going to be vastly messier than people had been hoping," Brown said.

The article is over two years old (Oct 14, 2021) and is full of links.  Follow the link to the author for the original.  I am not in a mood to add links from a Forbes article.

[K-Dog]

To put all this in perspective, I contacted Jeffrey Brown, an independent petroleum geologist who has analyzed global net exports for the past 15 years.

I am shadow banned on You Tube and other places.  A targeted, cancelled individual.

If I watch a video and leave a comment below a You Tube Video everything looks fine (to me).  But if I use a VPN.  I discover I do not exist.  I am shadow banned.  So I flipped G. W. Bush the bird once.  What's the big deal.  He is a war criminal.  The shoe fit.

It seems Jeffrey Brown may have something in common with me.  He appears to have been disappeared.  Articles removed and only a title remains.  A Wikipedia Entry about his Export Land Model.  BUT HE IS NOT LISTED IN THE REFERENCES and references to the Wikipedia entry give dead links. 

Something happened.  I found a geologist in Fort Worth with the same name on Linked-In.  I sent him a note.  But that is odd too.  A name and picture, but no resume or details beyond 'geologist'.  Maybe being careful with this rabbit hole would be a good idea.

[K-Dog]

I found this but have not watched it yet.  Scanning it is seems strange.  Graphs and slides but no human.  I will find out later.  I need to go outside.

And I found this ==>   To Understand The Oil Story, You Need To Understand Exports

A lot to chew on.

[TDoS]

The article is over two years old (Oct 14, 2021) and is full of links.  Follow the link to the author for the original.  I am not in a mood to add links from a Forbes article.

Why a 2 year old article, or older even, the author of which skips their due diligence and uses a disreputable source who once tried selling the same idea for US disaster in 2006? Jeff Brown being that reference obviously.

I'd be more than happy to spot check some of these things for you, having done the research thing on these pretenders spannning nearly 34 years now who still linger. 10 seconds of time is all it took to see Jeff didn't know any more 2 years ago then he did 18 years ago.       

United State Produces More Oil Than Any Country. Ever.

Article from March 11, 2024. From the only folks not yet discredited in their peak oil estimate by what got everyone else from way back when....

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[RE]

The article is over two years old (Oct 14, 2021) and is full of links.  Follow the link to the author for the original.  I am not in a mood to add links from a Forbes article.

Why a 2 year old article, or older even, the author of which skips their due diligence and uses a disreputable source who once tried selling the same idea for US disaster in 2006? Jeff Brown being that reference obviously.

I'd be more than happy to spot check some of these things for you, having done the research thing on these pretenders spannning nearly 34 years now who still linger. 10 seconds of time is all it took to see Jeff didn't know any more 2 years ago then he did 18 years ago.       

I knew we could count on you to come in with the counter arguments and evidence on your return to active duty.     Welcome back.  Let's keep it civil, and those who wish to argue this topic may continue working over that poor deceased equine further.

RE

[K-Dog]

   

United State Produces More Oil Than Any Country. Ever.



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The Fall of Icarus

Together, they flew towards freedom, away from Crete. Icarus soon forgot his father's warnings and started flying higher and higher.  The wax wings started melting under the scorching sun. He fell into the sea and drowned.

Before the fall they never pumped More   

Ignoring resource depletion should be a criminal offense.  Why not?  Talking about it is. 

How much do you get paid TDOS?

[TDoS]

I knew we could count on you to come in with the counter arguments and evidence on your return to active duty.

Would you reference a math text from 2 years ago that leads off with stating that as the author has proven 2+2=5 oreviously, then obviously 5+5=11?

I didn't need to make a counter argument. I simply presented the history 2 years after the article was written demonstrating that when Jeff Brown is involved, 2+2=5 is what folks have gotten in the past. At least twice now.

[RE]

I simply presented the history 2 years after the article was written demonstrating that when Jeff Brown is involved, 2+2=5 is what folks have gotten in the past. At least twice now.

I didn't read anything about 2+2=5.  You'll need to drop the analogy and point out the actual math errors involved in his calculations if you want any credibility at all.

RE

[TDoS]

Ignoring resource depletion should be a criminal offense.  Why not?  Talking about it is.

I have been talking and writing about resource depletion professionally throughout a majority of this century. Never been charged for it yet.

How much do you get paid TDOS?

You were an EE and paid quite well, and RE has vouched for the value of your digs. 'Benz for you and the wife? Not bad.

I will offer that I am paid fairly for what I do. But never in my life owned a Benz, let alone two. So good for what your skills have brought you and yours, and I'm happy with what my skills provide for me and mine.

[TDoS]

I simply presented the history 2 years after the article was written demonstrating that when Jeff Brown is involved, 2+2=5 is what folks have gotten in the past. At least twice now.

I didn't read anything about 2+2=5.

True. I converted Jeff's routine into an allegory....he says things...they were wrong....he says the same things again years later not having learned from his first time...and is wrong...again.

You'll need to drop the analogy and point out the actual math errors involved in his calculations if you want any credibility at all.

I prefer allegory. This was his 2006 quote.

"As I said last year, I expect that by the end of 2006 we will be in the teeth of a ferocious net oil export crisis." Jeff Brown - April 5, 2006, 1:49PM.

I'm not sure he did much maths. And I certainly can't prove that the US suffered something ferocious in 2006 that didn't happen.

[RE]

I have been talking and writing about resource depletion professionally throughout a majority of this century. Never been charged for it yet.

The century is only 24 years old.  You only need 13 years to have written for a majority of the century.  Most of us have achieved that milestone.  Not being charged with a crime doesn't mean you didn't commit one.  It can mean many things.  You weren't caught, it wasn't worth prosecuting, you paid off the DA, you live in a non-extradition country, you have diplomatic immunity, nobody cares...

RE