Peak Oil 101

[TDoS]

Can you provide us with a link so we can see the context of this analysis?
RE

Deleted my Facebook account years ago. I believe the conversation was on the peak oil group, where I was keeping an eye on another long time acolyte in the Church of Peak. His Seneca work had already been out for awhile, and he was deep in the past examining a culture that had declined, it might have been the Romans, and the metric he had identified as having a cliff profile stopped decreasing and reversed. When matched to the history of Rome, there was a question as to whether or not recoveries were possible, based on the metric he was using in that example. He began speculating on what the metric might mean compared to the events in real time, and postulated that he might have to examine Senece Recoveries to see if there was any value or frequency to the idea.

[RE]

You can find posts I made 15 years ago on Peak Oil and you can't find a post from Ugo?  Come on.  How long ago was this?  In any event, "speculation" doesn't sound like he was very convinced of the idea.

RE

[TDoS]

You can find posts I made 15 years ago on Peak Oil and you can't find a post from Ugo?

I can remember (not just find) your claims about toyota going bankrupt from 16 years ago, but never found Facebook much to my taste. The ability to create echo chambers there was easy and utilized far more often than among the more old school forum style places. Plus, I got banned for being way too much peak oil expert for them, same as other places.

Come on.  How long ago was this?

I probably erased my last Facebook account at least....6 years ago? Maybe 7? I only know that because the owner of the Facebook peak oil forum (powers of a God...mind as sluggardly as the normies) was calling for 2018 as the end, and 2018 wasn't quite there yet. Spent a bunch of time with Alice as well, couldn't believe the things she didn't know, for as voluminous as her website is with occasionally good references. Half baked conclusions, but she was a believer, and that made her interesting.

So somewhere back thereabouts.

In any event, "speculation" doesn't sound like he was very convinced of the idea.
RE

He appeared to be in the pondering stage, so I don't know what level of convinced or anything else he arrived at. Didn't much care at the time, became far more interested in Simon Michaux.

[RE]

He appeared to be in the pondering stage, so I don't know what level of convinced or anything else he arrived at.

In that case, I suspect he would agree with what we said, which is any recovery would take generations.

RE

[TDoS]

He appeared to be in the pondering stage, so I don't know what level of convinced or anything else he arrived at.

In that case, I suspect he would agree with what we said, which is any recovery would take generations.

RE

Could be. Can't recall the time scale of the graphs he was using, or the particular metric. Only that it went down...Sceneca Cliff!!....and then it began recovering. He used the term "Seneca Recovery", not me. Don't know if he spent any further time on it or not.

I do know that I was there. And K-Dog wasn't. And if the two of you want to interpret what Ugo said that is one thing. But calling me a liar from a position of absolute ignornace is rude.

[RE]

But calling me a liar from a position of absolute ignornace is rude.

You complaining about somebody being rude is laughable.  You reap what you sow.

RE

[TDoS]

But calling me a liar from a position of absolute ignornace is rude.

You complaining about somebody being rude is laughable. 

Sort of like someone who wasn't there for a conversation proclaiming that those who were lied about its content? Laughable indeed.

It is quite touching though, a one legged man standing up   to defend he who was rude.

[RE]

Since you can't produce the evidence of the quote you reference, it's not laughable.  Based on your misrepresentations of many "Peak Oilers" you disagree with, it wouldn't be out of character for you to misrepresent what Ugo wrote.

I have one leg, but good balance, and besides I am sitting most of the time anyhow.

RE

[TDoS]

.... it wouldn't be out of character for you to misrepresent what Ugo wrote.
RE

It would be. Because I don't misrepresent.

Just because people know stuff that you don't, and you can't confirm because you don't hang in the right circles but prefer echo-chambers, and others obviously have far better memories of minor details of your own posting history (and mine pretty well too!), and it is all unscientific to do anything other than represent as best as possible (for courts, conferences, schooling the XOM folks in New Jersey or teaching PhD level students), but you pretend that I misrepresent is all you got?

All you've got is the Forum Power to ban/erase/censor/"pretend you know what Ugo said". Enjoy.

And you have my sympathy that it is the best you can do in terms of accomplishment.

[Toxic Plants Blog]

A two year old discussion that will be of interest to the hard-core doomer.  The fossil gurus are mentioned.

Peter's website: Toxic Plants Blog

Thanks for mentioning my blog, but I think that podcast I did with KMO was my least successful guest appearance ever (not that I've done very many of them).  For a start, we had problems with the audio, resulting in me not being able to use the headset I was intending to use, and having to switch to alternative equipment which resulted in me not being able to hear the sound of my own voice when I was talking, which was really off putting and interfered with my concentration.  Then there was the conflicting philosophy between myself and KMO.  As long time peak oil followers may remember, KMO went "all in" for peak oil, left his job and his family, went to live on an organic farm while he waited for the imminent collapse which never arrived, and probably ended up feeling rather foolish, which gave him a jaundiced view of peak oil forever after.  On the other hand, I kept a foot in both worlds, and continued with my daytime job while researching and preparing for peak oil, which turned out to be far more sensible (and I'm still doing it).  Then towards the end of the interview, KMO ran out of things to ask me and just started rabbiting on about anything to fill in the 60 minutes.  You can hear it all and judge for yourself if you listen to the podcast, but quite frankly I wouldn't recommend it!  Far better to visit my blog and read my latest post on the upcoming UK General Election.   

[K-Dog]

TO,

Welcome,

A more realistic approach would be to redesign our living arrangements so there is less need to transport people and materials.

We seem to have convergent evolution going on.  That is my position too.  But we dream.  Dream with green?  Attempts to mitigate with green, green, green is a trip on the river of De-Nile.  Only a fundamental change in living arrangements can make a dent, could matter at all.  I wish it could be more than a dream.  Fundamental change is unpopular.

I support carbon Fee and Divided which is not a tax as you know.  Government gets the proceeds of tax.  Fee and dividend is a redistribution that would encourage natural human self-interest to make needed behavioral change.

On the other hand, I kept a foot in both worlds, and continued with my daytime job while researching and preparing for peak oil, which turned out to be far more sensible (and I'm still doing it).

Me too.

As you say: "If you stand on a bridge over a major highway, or stand on a hill overlooking a city at night, you get a visceral sense of the enormity of the problem. How can we possibly convert all those thousands of vehicles passing under the bridge every hour, to net zero? How can we possibly convert all of that city's electric light to net zero?"

It is not in the math.  Often there is talk, and even hard core doomers will make the mistake of portraying overshoot as something that 'will happen' if people don't do something.  Truth is, overshoot is here, and has been for a while.  Now we wait for system delays to kick-in inevitable consequences.  Green thinking is denials' success at not reading the room.  Of not understanding the delay.

The earth does not do things on a timescale humans can relate to.  KMO and others who went off the 'deep end' did not appreciate this.  Net zero is an extreme that errs in the other way.  Net zero is 'throw me in the shallow water before I get too deep'. Net zero wants to put lipstick on a pig.  Extreme fear of the water.  Fear of change.

I make no distinction between residents or immigrants on the basis of nationality, religion or ethnic origin. I have every sympathy for economic migrants and refugees, and I fully understand why they want to seek a better life elsewhere.

I thought only RE and I thought this way.  What to do about the situation is complicated.

Welcome to the Diner.

* You are only a 'Useless Eater' for a few posts.

[RE]

In the Great Peak Oil Poker Game, BP saw the IEAs 2029 Peak Demand by 2029 and raised to 2025.  Bloomberg apparently also is betting with the shorts on this.  I will maintain my opinion this has less to do with conversion to EVs, Net Zero and Carbon Credits and more to do with the likelihood of a major recession getting underway.

Far as the trading goes, it's been hanging range bound between $80-85 for about the last month, after the initial panic in June when it dropped to the $70s after the IEA announcement.  Based on recent stories, I'm expecting a recession announcement in 2-3 months.  That will be a good test if it comes to pass.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/BP-Predicts-Global-Oil-Demand-Will-Peak-In-2025.html

RE

[TDoS]

In the Great Peak Oil Poker Game, BP saw the IEAs 2029 Peak Demand by 2029 and raised to 2025.  Bloomberg apparently also is betting with the shorts on this.  I will maintain my opinion this has less to do with conversion to EVs, Net Zero and Carbon Credits and more to do with the likelihood of a major recession getting underway.

I'll buy that for a dollar!! The more blood in the streets the better, any investor worth their salt isn't going to mind exctly what is needed for an improved return on investment environment. 2008 was an excellent example.

[RE]

I'll buy that for a dollar!!

So you're going short on oil?  Make some money betting the demand dropping?

RE

[RE]

Clearly the Argentinians have not read the IEA or BP predictions.  lol.  Arriving a little late to the party.  Now the question is, who will pony up and finance the drilling?  Since the IEA projects a supply GLUT for the next decade, it doesn't seem to be a very attractive investment opportunity.  The Brit banks aren't financing new FF drilling in the North Sea, but maybe they would hand over money to Argentina for drilling?

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/article/2024/jul/11/argentinas-future-lies-in-the-balance-as-vast-oilfields-poised-for-extraction

Argentina's future lies in the balance as vast oilfields poised for extraction


RE