Frog Legs Fondue & Sauerkraut on Bratwurst

[RE]

As expected, the Frog Goobermint has collapsed and the new PM Grand Barnier has become the shortest serving PM in Frog history.  Which isn't really that long since France didn't become a Democracy until after Napoleon in the 1800s.  It also was a puppet state under Hitler during the years of the 3rd Reich.

So going in  to the New Year, France is without a budget and no way to pass one.  As we know from the regular budget crises and goobermint shutdowns here in the FSoA, Goobermint "collapse" doesn't really mean the end of the government or the system, all the career agency employees still have their jobs and elected officials still hold their positions.  They just can't pass any laws or make any decisions or major changes.  Usually here after a week or two  of minor disruptions of BAU some ssort of compromise is reached, some cans are kicked down the road and Da Goobermint gets back to setting up a bigger failure at a later date.  Nobody tries to really solve problems anymore, just put off thee day of reckoning to a later date.

Anyhow, I suspect the goobermint collapse in France will have somewhat more far-reaching consequences over there than we usually get from them back here, but we won't have an immediate descent into anarchy either.

French prime minister ousted in no-confidence vote, throwing country into deep uncertainty

https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/04/europe/france-no-confidence-vote-barnier-crisis-intl/index.html

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[RE]

This article from the BBC points out how the current political instability in BOTH France and Germany makes the whole EU very weak as a political bloc, particularly since beyond their individual inability to agree on anything within their own borders, they also can't agree on policies with each other which will affect trade, tariffs, energy distribution and of course military alliances.

In all likelihood come the New Year, with the Frog Goobermint in disarray and The Donald sworn in as POTUS, Vlad the Impaler will use the opportunity to make a big push and finally crush the Fascists in Kyiv.  Without Frog and FSoA military aid, the Fascists will fold in pretty short order I suspect.

If Putin can finally get rid of the Fascists, the next step would be to install his own puppet goobermint in Kyiv, so instead of just splitting off Crimea, Donetsk and Lugansk from Ukraine, he gets the whole package, which would improve his total border security situation.  This also puts him in control of just about all the oil pipelines flowing west from Turkey and Russia into Europe.

After that, I don't see Vlad pursuing any further military action,  The battle with the Anglo-Amerikan Empire will be mostly economic.  Besides France & Germany, all the rest of the EU countries are weak politically and economically, especially in the south.  I could see hm enticing Greece to leave the EU since they have been so fucked over by the IMF, and maybe even Spain or Italy.  Of course, that would really shift the balance of power, so it would test whether El Trumpo would be Isolationist or be manipulated by the Illuminati Globalists to maintain the New World Order as it has been orchestrated since the end of WWII.

Anyhow, as I said, 2025 begins a new phase in Collapse, so it will be a fun year for us Kollapsniks.



https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0q0zvvjj19o

Why France's turmoil is grave concern for Europe

[RE]

More on the economic side of the Frog problems

https://www.dw.com/en/is-france-heading-for-an-economic-storm/a-70944682

Is France heading for an economic storm?

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[RE]

"So I expect to see several more motions of censure, and several more falls of government – before eventually we start to wake up."

This sounds very entertaining, but besides being incredibly stupid, how long is this rinse-repeat cycle of goobermints being formed and then censured going to take before the eventual wake-up call?  In the mean time how does France function on a practical level?  Besides arguing, exactly what will the legislature actually DO if they can't pass any laws or spend any money or raise any taxes?

How does the EU as a whole function with the Frogs in a perpetual state of chaos as the politicians jump from lily pad to lily pad?  What will happen to the bond market during this game of ping-pong goobermints?

Collapse is so much fun.      There's always some new twist to consider.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czjd79yrlplo

Barnier downfall threatens to set a pattern for what lies ahead

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[K-Dog]

More on the economic side of the Frog problems

https://www.dw.com/en/is-france-heading-for-an-economic-storm/a-70944682

Is France heading for an economic storm?

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Do you think Europe will figure out their economies have been played by the Ukraine Proxy War to the advantage of the United States by deliberately making their energy expensive?  So expensive that they can't compete economically?

Germany was doing fine until the US turned off the gas and France has suffered from the loss too.  Britain hates Russia and always has, they are doing some of the playing along with the US.  They won't turn against Trump, but the rest of Europe could get very uncooperative if they decide to grow a brain.  Maybe what is going on in France is some turbulent brain growth?

If we could follow the money all would be known.

[RE]

Do you think Europe will figure out their economies have been played by the Ukraine Proxy War to the advantage of the United States by deliberately making their energy expensive?  So expensive that they can't compete economically?

Oh, I think everybody understands the relationship between wars and energy prices and how these conflics are used to manipulate the price.  Whenever the price drops too low, some conflict (usually in MENA) heats up and the next day you read how the oil price jumped up on new of the conflict.  Add to that the direct economic sanctions where if you're a NATO ally you're not allowed to trade with Mother Russia or Iran I believe and you see easily how the market is controlled this way.

The problem for the Eurotrash is after all the years of the Cold War the fear of Communism and the old Soviet Union they still fear Russia, and nobody wants the shortages of goods and consumer items they remember from those days.  Collapse hasn't fully set in yet and life in the Western European countries generally is still better than in Russia.  Probably not true in Greece or Italy as in Germany and France, where economic austerity has been taking a toll for at least a decade.  However, this economic crisis in France could energize the left and their Communist Party, which as I said would really destabilize the New World Order as it has existed since WWII.

It's all a very delicate balance, so it's hard to predict how it will all shake out.  One thing is pretty certain though.

There will be BLOOD.

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[RE]

Something I wasn't aware of, the Kraut Goobermint ALSO collapsed a month ago.  I knew Germany was having economic problems but I missed the newz the ruling coalition had fallen apart.  So both Germany and France are in essentially the same condition, which is rudderless with no captain and no faction with enough of a constituency to have a majority.

This of course is the Failure Point of Democracy, where you are supposed to have "majority rules" decision making.  There is no majority on any issue these days, it's all about pluralities with multiple opinions and PoVs.

With the society essentially floundering it's ripe for some type of movemement along with a charismatic leader to show up.    The problem there is a real lack of charisma globally. lol.  I mean really, is there anybody at all anywhere globally with vision who has a clear message that people could follow?  Nobody I can think of.  So we flounder our way into collapse.

Hard to figure how Europe will move forward from here.  Britain also is very weak, which means no leadership from any of the "Big 3" European nations of WWII.  There's no Churchill or d'Gaulle or hell even a Thatcher or Merkel who can function as a spokesperson, and leaders change as often as you change you underwear. Including the skid marks.

https://www.npr.org/2024/12/05/nx-s1-5217601/france-germany-europe-politics

France's toppled government adds to the European Union's bigger political problems

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[RE]

Here's a foreign policy analysis from Responsible Statecraft.  This is the propaganda organ of the Quincy Institute think tank, which gets its funding from Soros and the Koch brothers.     As far as the Frogs & Krauts providing the military support for propping up the Ukie Fascists, that is not gonna happen anytime soon.  Neither one of them could even pass a resolution to buy bullets at the moment.

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/france-barnier-macron/

Europe's center is not holding

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[RE]

This actually is more a full Eurozone issue than strictly a Frog problem, but wedon't have a thread for Euro politics and economics and I'm not sure we get enough artcles to warrant one.  I'm aalso not sure the Eurozone or EU are going to last long enough to need their own thread.

The EUhad a crisis when Greece went on the skids, and Brexit probably caused the Brits more problems than it did for the Frogs and Krauts at least initially,  But I find it hard to imagine how the EU can survive both France & Germany hitting the economic Brick Wall at the same time.  The ongoing military conflict in Ukraine adds to the total instability in the region.  It will be interesting to see if they can weather 2025 intact.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/dec/19/germany-france-crisis-next-global-financial-crash

Germany and France are in crisis – is the next global financial crash brewing?

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[RE]

More on the economic crisis in Europe, analyzing it's various systemic problems of lack of innovation and investment, aalong with its demographic aging problem and he inability to fund their pension, social welfare and military defense programs.

All this might lead many Amerikans to pat ourselves on the back with how forward thinking we are with all the money spent on R&D by behemoths like Google and Amazon, until you stop and think about what these innovations actually ARE .  It's all information based stuff combined with financialization, nothing really tangible is coming out of it. R&D on how to better spy on people and data mine their habits to sell things to them.  Besides, all this innovation isn't benefiting the Amerikan J6P, all the increases in productivity are going into increased profits for corporations and their stockholders and pay packages for upper level management.  The workers are losing ground just about as fast as their Eurotrash counterparts, and we never had the generous vacation time and cradle to grave social welfare programs they did.

The other reason not to get all happy about being the "winner" in the economic footrace with Europe is the same as feeling cheery about beating the Chinese, the 3rd major player with Europe and the FSoA in the global economic engine doesn't work.  Because it's a global economy, each of the players depends on the others to also be successful with what they are doing so everyone can afford to trade with everyone else.  They need to be able to buy what we sell and vica versa.  If any of the players descends into an economic depression, it drags the other ones down with it.  No man is an island, each depends on the other to succeed.

Europe's problems right now are so deep and have been brewing for so long it's hard to see how they can climb out of the hole they are in.  Which means that an economic crash is just about baked in the cake, along with a lot of political upheaval and radicalization, polarizing the political landscape.  In other words, it starts looking like the Europe of the 1930s, and we know how that played out.  Deja Vu all over again.

How long it will take for all these problems to crystallize into macroscopic outcomes like Depression and War is an open question.  Again if you take the 1930s as a roadmap, we're probably in 1930-31 now and ave 2-3 years before being fully in the grip of Depression, and 5-8 years before  Civil Wars like the Spanish one, followed by the continent spanning WWII.  Hard to say though because on the financial level things can happen so much quicker now.  The general direction is pretty clear though.

https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-economic-apocalypse/

Europe's economic apocalypse is now

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[K-Dog]

Europe's boot legging politicians are not popular.  People in Europe do not support NATO's Ukraine war.  Only their boot licking politicians do.

Europe is polarized by extreme wealth inequality the same as the United States.  Europe has a 1% that owns over 30 % of everything.

They have a small minority of idiots who think they know everything running the show.  Same as here.

[RE]

Looks like the Krauts are joining the Frogs in political collapse.  In Deja Vu all over again, the PM lost a vote of No Confidence and they will have Snap Elections in Feb to rejigger the Parliament and then try to agree on somebody as Prime Minister.

Similar to France also, the Far Right Populist party has the most individual support, but all the other parties refuse to work with them so they can't form a majority coalition.  This ends up with the same type of political lockup they have in France.

With the two biggest countries in the Eurozone in political and economic chaos and His Royal Trumpness escalating the trade war and trying to annex Greenland and Panama and turn Canada into the 51st state in good old fashioned Imperialist fashion, we're all set up for a full scale tri-lateral conflict with the Russians and Chinese.

The way it's shaping up, the Ruskies are working to expand into Europe and the Middle East, so the Chinese will go for Japan, Taiwan and Africa & Australia, while the FSoA tries to consolidate North America with Canada and Greenland.  South America looks like a battleground between the FSoA and China.

Needless to say, this global conflict amounts to WWIII, which nobody wins.  Trade will grind to a complete halt and even if the bombs don't drop in your neighborhood basic goods and food will be hard to come by.  So will working currency, so having a supply of Barter items in your preps is a good idea.

At least we know now the form collapse will take, basically trade collapse followed by war then infrastructure collapse.  Unless you die pretty soon, you'll get to see the first 2 installments move along over the next few years.  Enjoy the show.

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-braces-for-elections-as-parliament-dissolved/a-71166875

Germany braces for elections as parliament dissolved

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[monsta666]

Germany is in a hard place economically. They are the industrial powerhouse of Europe. Unfortunately their major manufacturers are struggling and can no longer rely on China to increase sales. In fact with the rise of China's EV based companies many major German car brands are losing market share. To compound matters further the war in Ukraine means Germany can no longer rely on cheap Russian energy making their manufacturing base even less economical on the global level.

The German economy needs to pivot away from its export driven model but doing so is difficult. The average German has struggled for a number of years now and this is most keenly felt in East Germany. It should be noted that it is this region of Germany that is most supportive of these right wing/populist parties. The people in west Germany sees these parties in a less favourable light so the division is not just on the political level but also on the national. Germany and Germans are conflicted on the path they should take and this applies not only on the political level but on the economical too.

In any case, the average German struggles with mediocre wage growth and the prospect of working ever longer before receiving a pension is a source of angst. I do visit Germany on a fairly regular basis and it does seem like there are more homeless Germans than five years ago. I am actually planning a trip there at the end of January so can speak to a friend to see what it is like on the ground.

[RE]

Be nice to get some boots on the ground reporting.  Will you be in Berlin?  I'd be interested to hear how it compares to NYC, which you also visited recently.

Itss hard to see how they can rejigger their car industry at this late date.  From what I have read, the German car companies made their bet on improving diesel engines instead of EVs.  Not much future in that.

Also not surprising the East Germans have gone right wing.  They lived undder Ruskie control during the worst years of the cold war, and memories don't fade that fast.  It also makes for very divisive politics.

Check in more often!

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[monsta666]

Also not surprising the East Germans have gone right wing.  They lived undder Ruskie control during the worst years of the cold war, and memories don't fade that fast.  It also makes for very divisive politics.

The other contentious issue is since the reunification of Germany a lot of money has been sent from West to East Germany to bridge the economic gap. Naturally the West says the East received too much money while the East says the West didn't support them enough. With the rise of immigrants this has only exacerbated the situation and so the East Germans have readily accepted the populist parties as there is a strong sentiment they are being left behind.

The dynamic is not all too similar to the Rust Belt in the US or the North/South divide in the UK. Let's remember the North of England were very pro Brexit, Rust Belt states are very pro Trump and now we are getting more the same with the East Germans voting populist. It will be hard for the more mainstream parties in Germany to completely ignore the pledges of the far right as it will only underscore the East Germans misgiving that their thoughts are being dismissed/ignored.

As for traveling, I will be around the Dortmund area as my German mate lives in that region. I have been to Berlin but quite sometime ago. More gritty and less affluent than New York but had a more artistic vibe. You won't see as many pigs in Berlin as you would in New York or even Bavaria. I believe the fat catz reside more in Bavaria.

Check in more often!

Will try to come more often. New(ish) job is more busy than the last one but will make a bigger effort.